The elections on February 18 are important for President Pervez Musharraf and he must ensure a particular result. Free and fair elections, as we have seen in India, lead to unexpected results. This is something neither Musharraf wants, nor the Army despite its professed neutrality.
Musharraf cannot afford to have a result that allows the Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League to call the shots; he cannot even let his own loyalists — the Quaid or Q faction of the PML led by the Chaudhry brothers to have too much freedom. Since only a particular result will be acceptable, it requires fixing, managing or rigging before or after the elections. His backers too need a result that ensures his continuance for he is the West’s regional beacon in their Global War on Terror.
Nadir
The contesting politicians seem to be the least important factor in this race. Musharraf, Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani and the jihadis are going to be the greater determinants on February 18 and in the aftermath. Political parties have probably got this message and Asif Zardari, the controversial leader of the PPP, is already talking of a post-election national government for five years. A party sure of winning, or even reasonably hoping to win, is unlikely to make such statements. Either Zardari, adept at making deals, has been told of the results or he has guessed. The sympathy wave in favour of PPP after Benazir Bhutto’s assassination may have dissipated under an onslaught from the jihadis who do not want a secular system of governance in Islamic Pakistan. Unless the wave extends to the Punjab it will make little difference to the results. The wave of terror in the North West Frontier Province and terrorist incidents in the Punjab and Karachi have driven away political leaders to the comparative security of their homes and frightened the electorate who do not wish to risk their lives for an event that will make little difference to their lives. The mood gaining ground is that the elections, for which the turnout has been very low in recent years, would see even poorer participation. In that case their management will be easier.Musharraf is no longer the hero of October 1999 and in fact Pakistani commentators have lately questioned his role in the Kargil war. For some time he tried to ride two horses — one American, in the war on terror and the other jihadi, in their anti-American campaign. The latter has bolted, leaving Musharraf clinging to the American horse. He began to lose his touch in August 2006 when he had the Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti murdered. The Lal Masjid episode showed Musharraf as being either helpless or in connivance with the Ghazi brothers and the March 9 sacking of the Chief Justice was unnecessary and arrogant.
Army
The November 3 Emergency confirmed that Musharraf just wanted to stay on, while the assassination of Benazir Bhutto aroused anger in the Sindh and strengthened the belief that Musharraf did not want a dispensation that had the possibility of a Sindhi Prime Minister. The much-vaunted economic success has also been a mirage that is now haunting him. His earlier aplomb and candour in answering difficult questions has been replaced by rudeness and temper tantrums, as was seen during his recent visit to Europe, the sure signs of a weakening man. The role of the Army will remain paramount even though Gen Kiyani has professed neutrality of the Army in the election process, has asked his officers and men to stay away from politicians and has withdrawn officers from civilian assignments. It is very likely that in the aftermath of the messy elections the General may be the arbiter. The Pakistan army is a disciplined force as all professional armies are expected to be. It observes its army regulations strictly and with considerable pride. It does not, however, feel the same way about respecting the Constitution which is a civilian document and therefore expendable. General Kiyani has other problems as well. He must refurbish the fading image of the Army where not only are the actions of serving generals being questioned but also of those in the past. He must win the battle against the terrorists in the north-west, yet not be seen as an American stooge. Above all, Kiyani must get out from Musharraf’s shadow. Musharraf has been going international about Kiyani’s virtues and competence and talking about Kiyani being an honourable man. What Musharraf does not realise is that no successor wants this kind of certification and without his uniform Musharraf is a much weaker man, like Ayub was in 1969. Musharraf also does not realise, or accept, that he has actually been ousted from the throne. He now has a sinecure but the charade will continue because the army needs Musharraf as the fall guy for all the problems. However, there are clear and repeated indications that Pakistan’s leaders, civilian or military, present or future, are now facing the consequences of a blowback. The Pakistan Army has lost 1,100 men in the fight against terrorists in the NWFP since Musharraf began his operations in 2003 which is more than US/NATO losses in Afghanistan in six years. Even so, the US is not happy with the Musharraf report card on the war on terror and would like him to do more or do more itself inside Pakistan. The London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies recently assessed that the Pakistan-based Taliban pose a global risk. The study added that international terrorism remained the largest growth industry and groups in Pakistan had earned the “dubious honour” of making the biggest strides during the past year. More than a million small arms are estimated to be floating around in the NWFP in the hands of those who know how to use them. Terrorist activity in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and spreading to the rest of the NWFP, has marked a steady upgrade in its ability to overpower Pak security forces almost at will. The Army GHQ at Rawalpindi must be worried by the repeated incidents of the Frontier Constabulary and the Army detachments surrendering with ease to the Taliban, refusing to fight or vacating positions to them.
Outcome
Apart from the high profile violence that was visible in Darra Adam Khel, where militants decamped with four truckloads of weapons — since NATO supplies are routed through Pakistan it is possible these supplies were meant for NATO — and the blocking of the Kohat Tunnel, the terrorist campaign against the secular and pacifist Awami National Party, the party of Frontier Gandhi, Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, is particularly significant. There have been repeated attempts to assassinate Asfandyar Wali Khan, the grandson of Ghaffar Khan, former interior minister Aftab Ahmed Sherpao and Afrasiab Khattak. The attacks have not been against just another political party but against the ANP’s ideals that are anathema to the Taliban. In this backdrop of fear and terror, with a stultified press, major leaders either petrified or locked up and the army waiting in the wings, the average voter hovers between cynicism and despondency. It is difficult to predict who will win but if the turnout is low on February 18, hope will certainly die and Pakistan will have lost.
Source : Mail Today , 15th Feb 2008
