Showing posts with label Democracy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Democracy. Show all posts

Friday, May 18, 2007

Democracy battles realpolitik

The London Bombings are a success story in the Jehadi lexicon

The latest blasts paralysing London, remarkably similar to the ones in Madrid last year, are another reminder to the world that the war against international terror is far from over, that the terrorists have the reach, access, ability and the will. This was probably not the first attempt that was made in London and there have been several terror warnings, but success came because the attacks were obviously better rehearsed and meticulously planned. Just as the September 11 attacks and the Madrid attacks, the explosions were at morning peak hours and intended to inflict maximum damage and to attract maximum attention with the G-8 Summit in Gleneagles.

It may be early days but it appears that the terrorists used timer devices and not suicide bombers. The loss in human lives and injuries would be immense; the loss to property and business would run into millions of pounds over time; and the damage to race relations difficult to measure. A success story in the jehadi lexicon.

On the morning of July 7, there was apparently an unhurried but professional energy in action on the streets in London and as in New York in 2001, the TV did not show any scenes of panic, dead bodies or any gruesome scene; there were no wailing crowds to be seen on the box - the sort of thing that is oxygen to terrorists. Everything was about self-censorship and there were no allegations of intelligence failure and no political blame game. Here in India it is invariably the other way round. Some of us even described the Ayodhya terrorists as militants, which is giving respectability in a way to them, just as the word fidayeen gives to suicide bombers

Islamic terror continues to unfold itself in sporadic bursts in different places from New York to Bali to Akshardham to Ayodhya and has not unfolded itself in its full fury. Since Sep 11 2001, there have been attacks in 2002 at an Islamabad church (March), Karachi (May), US Consulate, Karachi (June), the notorious Bali bombing (October); Casablanca, Istanbul, Riyadh were some of the targets in 2003 and Madrid, Tashkent, Djakarta and Sinai in Egypt followed in 2004. Throughout this period, terrorist attacks in India continued but that attracted very little international attention.

This terrorism is not simply about opposing democracy or freedoms or a way of life. It is about US policies in the region. It is, as writers like John Gray (Al Qaeda and What It Means To Be Modern) have said, as much about an Islamic rage arising from the rapid globalisation and modernisation and of years of exploitation by external powers helped their own rulers perceived to be lackeys of foreign powers. Ayman al-Zawahiri’s warning last November, that America must be forced to submit to what is right through violence, applies to US and its friends.

USA’s selective response of tilting at windmills and sheltering other friends is not the best response to terror that is bound to grow. The frightening aspect of this rather pointless and very brutal war in Iraq (Islam’s second holiest place) and, earlier in Afghanistan, is that it has created hatred and terrorists where there were none. The entire exercise is seen increasingly as more an opportunity for projection of power and not as war on terror.

As US casualties mount, costs increase (nearing the cost of the Cold War) and there is more strident domestic criticism of the war in Iraq, it is possible that the US leadership will find the political cost of continuation of this war becoming increasingly unbearable. The world cannot afford to see US lose yet cannot also afford to see US fight this war in the manner it is doing. Unfortunately, at present there is little likelihood that the US will change its policies of establishing a New American Century and the war in Iraq will not only continue but may even extend in some form to Iran.

The problem is, there will surely come a time, (there are increasing references in USA to Vietnam) when the US chooses to withdraw into fortress America and glower angrily at those outside leaving them to fend for themselves. The price the rest of the world, especially those seen as partners of the US, will have to pay will be enormous. US withdrawal now from Iraq would be seen by the terrorists as the first significant victory in their campaign of driving US out of the Islamic world especially on the Palestine issue. The next steps would be to purify the Saudi soil by getting rid of the present regime and similar action in other parts of the Islamic world to get rid of the pro-American ruling elite. And having convinced themselves that it was jehad that won them victory in Afghanistan against the Soviets, the present jehadis will claim victory against the other, remaining Super power. This would be the New World Order; Colour Green. Now that India has signed a Defence Pact with the US, it is going to be in much sharper focus on the jehadi radar for India increasingly falls in the category of ‘my enemy’s friend is my enemy’.




Perhaps no other country has faced unending and varied terrorism as we in India





As London, Madrid and the innumerable bomb blasts in India as well as the daily tally in Baghdad has shown, the modern weapon of the terrorist is a truck, a car or a human being laden with bombs. Precision bombs will eliminate leading terrorists but not terrorism. Daisy cutters and cluster bombs will only add to what is described with considerable insensitivity --collateral damage – killing of innocent civilians. For the world has yet to find a way of killing a man or a woman who is willing to die, because that does not kill the mindset. The world is not fighting an American war against terror aimed at American targets only. Global reach should really mean global reach, and not just anti-US.

Perhaps no other country has faced unending and varied terrorism as we in India have over the last 57 years. Indians have weathered the storms but not overcome them yet. The experience of the Indian counter-terrorist is possibly the widest in the world. Yet this will not prevent more attacks. The fear today is that since the terrorist infrastructures exist in the neighbourhood and cells exist in India, the kind of terrorist action in Ayodhya can be repeated. So far we have been lucky – each time the security forces were equal to the task; but as they say in this game, the State has to be lucky all the time, the terrorist has to be lucky only once. It takes little imagination to work out what could have happened in India had these six men got through the various security cordons in Ayodhya. And how many places of worship and for how long will the State have to protect them.

The range and timing of the attacks over the last few years indicates that terrorists went global quite some time ago. The funding is global, the weapons’ acquisition is global, the foot soldiers are re-deployable at will and the targets are global. Unless the counter-terrorist goes global we will never, ever, succeed. And a terrorist is a terrorist is a terrorist; not my terrorist and your terrorist or my terrorist first and then yours.

Source : hindustan times 10th July 2005

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Humvee Democracy

There are all sorts of democracies in this world. There is the Westminster type parliamentary democracy; there is the Presidential form; we have had quite a few communist regimes masquerading as peoples’ democracies in the past; then in our neighbourhood we presently have can only be described as dictatorial democracy or khaki democracy - a contradiction in terms but still there.

The world is now about to see or might see something unique, the installation of a humvee democracy (patent pending) when Iraq goes to the polls on January 30. A poor, battered, traumatised people living in a country that has no electricity, no water, no hospitals, no sewerage, no schools, no houses, and bury their children in their own backyard, are about to be bestowed the gift of democracy and they don’t know what to do with it.

The world keeps hearing of the rising death toll in Iraq and more than 1200 American soldiers have died fighting a war they don’t know why they are fighting. There are thousands more injured. Many of them possibly succumbed to their injuries in hospitals, and many others are now among the walking dead. One report speaks of 31,000 US soldiers having applied for disability benefits for physical or psychological injuries. As US casualties rise, so do those of the Iraqis; but then the latter are only a statistic. Collateral damage, as the Americans dismiss them.

Some like the British medical journal, Lancet, placed the figure as 100,000 Iraqi deaths a few months ago. Children in the war zone die in vast numbers from disease, respiratory ailments, lack of food, and lack of basic medicines. Food is scarce because the border with Syria is sealed to keep “foreign insurgents” out. The cost of the war a few days ago was US $ 149,289,667,350 and it rose to US $ 149,289,736,814 one minute later. That is the rate at which the cost is mounting. Yet the US President says it is worth it.

Operation Phantom Fury was launched on Laylat-e-Qadr, the most important and holy night in the Islamic annual calendar and in the month of Ramadan. Fellujah was flattened with AC-130 gunships, F-16s, 2000 pound bombs and cluster bombs, and the might of the US Army. It left at least 1200 to 1600 - described as Iraqi fighters - dead and 850 American troops injured by November 2004. There is no estimate of the innocent men, women and children killed. Doctors in hospitals and vital telephone lines were targeted to prevent the outside world from knowing what was going on. The idea was to discipline Fellujah before the elections and the result was the peace of a graveyard. Ironically, Fellujah was the city that had resisted Saddam in the past and today the resistance against the occupier continues.

Mosul is the next target. Fierce clashes in Iraq’s third largest city were reported mid-January; amidst reports of a depleted police and election force following defections/resignations. Clashes in Samarah, Ramadi and even in the ‘pacified’ Fellujah, continue.

Babylon, it now turns out has been damaged/destroyed – no–one knows to what extent. A part of the heritage of the Mesopotamian civilisation may have been lost. Once the capital of Hammurabi, of Nebudchadnezzar, the Hanging Gardens that Herodutus saw and one of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient World, were the camping grounds of occupation forces in 2003 first by the US Army and then by the Poles. Destroyed rather like the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas by the Taliban in Afghanistan. But not to worry, Bechtel or Halliburton will restore Babylon in a new jazzed up version.

Justin Raimondo describes how four US soldiers were awarded six months in jail for sadistically pushing an innocent young Iraqi off a bridge into the Tigris. And if this is not enough, one hears of the brutal El Salvador type death squads being pressed into service in Iraq and possibly Syria; they would consist of Shia militiaman and Kurdish Peshmarga fighters to target the Sunni “insurgents”; or should we not call them freedom fighters, for they are fighting on their land for their land. Iraq today has the makings of a Lebanon with all its sectarian and bloody battles.

Almost two suicide attacks take place in Iraq every day. As the well-known Middle East correspondent Robert Fisk says, Arabs have now lost their fear and are now willing to confront and die. Iraqis have watched with contempt and anger as Western businessmen have turned up by the thousand to make money in a country that they first helped destroy. The fear of the dictator and the occupier has gone.

It was Lawrence Freedman who said earlier this month that if Vietnam was McNamara’s war Iraq has become Rumsfeld’s war for all the mistakes he made in not listening to his Generals’ advice about force levels required to restore law and order after Saddam had been toppled, rejecting State Department advice for on post war reconstruction, disbanding the Iraqi Army, then flaunting international regulations on torture. What Freedman does not say here is that a house constructed on rickety foundations was destined to collapse anyway; an adventure begun on wrong premises was bound to fail. All the reasons for going to war were just pretexts.

Just as USA has had to live with a Vietnam syndrome for many years, it may have to live with an Iraq syndrome. The difference is that Buddhism does not believe either in jehad or suicide attacks. In Iraq and in the rest of the Muslim world, it is different.

An emboldened and an angry Muslim world is likely to be the result of this misadventure. More, not less terrorism will be the result. The imagery of the elusive Osama bin Laden and of Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, largely created by US propaganda will endure, enticing hundreds, if not thousands, of young Muslims to jehad and martyrdom. The world may soon be looking at Jehad International Inc Part II, the Arab version.

The US may still hallucinate that they are the liberators but the Iraqi resistance to them is not confined to a few fanatical Sunnis or outsiders. There is opposition to US-led Coalition forces (in a steadily weakening coalition of the unwilling) from a population that is increasingly nationalistic in its sentiments, suspicious of US intentions and resentful of its arrogance and insensitivity as reflected in its actions. An imported President and his government are not acceptable. The elections of January 30, if held will change little. If the Sunnis do not participate or are under represented, Iraq will continue to be unstable. Only a leadership of moderates, that is seen to be independent of Washington, will be acceptable to the Iraqis.

In his dispatch of December 28, 2004, Robert Fisk quotes T.E. Lawrence (of Arabia)

“The people of England have been led in Mesopotamia into a trap from which it will be hard to escape with dignity and honour. They have been tricked into it by a steady withholding of information. The Baghdad communiqués are belated, insincere, incomplete. Things have been far worse than we have been told, our administration more bloody and inefficient that the public knows…We are today not far from disaster.”

Lawrence had said this in the Sunday Times in August 1920. The only difference is that the USA was not tricked into Mesopotamia, it walked into this with its eyes wide shut. And then we sat down by the Rivers of Babylon and we wept.

Source : Hindustan Times 20th Jan 2005