In recent times, Balochistan has always had to live under the shadow of Afghanistan but this cannot take away the intrinsic importance of the province to the renewed Great Game of the 21st century. Pakistan’s largest province and most backward state is resource rich and geo-strategically located astride the energy routes from the Persian Gulf and as a gateway to Central Asia. It is also the least populated state of Pakistan as well as the most isolated where the Baloch have periodically rebelled against the central authority whose only answer has been use of harsh military methods to suppress the revolts under an unthinking and unhelpful political doctrine of zero-tolerance.
IMPERIAL INTERESTS
The British had realised the importance of the region that is now Balochistan as they consolidated their Indian Empire. This was reflected even as they prepared to leave the subcontinent in the 1940s they still assessed the continued importance of the region to contain Soviet expansion just as they had worried about Czarist ambitions in the 18th and 19th centuries and as an important base for controlling the energy rich Middle East.
The sixth Khan of Kalat, Naseer Khan the great, who ruled from 1749 to 1794, was the first ruler of Kalat who succeeded in uniting the various Baloch tribes who had been feuding for centuries. Naseer Khan’s kingdom extended over all the Baloch areas which today straddles adjacent parts of Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan. Naseer Khan raised an army of 30,000 and the British curious about what was happening in an area potentially of great interest to them sent in their spy, Sir Henry Pottinger to assess the Khan of Kalat. Nicholas Schmidle in his essay “Waiting for the Worst: Baluchistan 2006” for the Institute of Current World Affairs and republished in the spring 2007 issue of the Virginia Quarterly Review says that Sir Henry found the Khan “a most extra-ordinary combination of all virtues attached to soldier, statesman and prince.” Naseer Khan died in 1794 when the Baloch kingdom was at its zenith and “the Great Game between Russia and England for control of Central Asia was about to heat up – and Baluchistan covered one of the most sought after pieces of real estate in the world.” This is something that has not changed since then although the main players have changed and main game may have altered somewhat.
Even as the British fought their wars in Afghanistan in order to subdue it and keep the Russians away from the warm waters, their eyes were also fixed on the territory of the Khodadad Khan, the ruler of Kalat. Eventually, in July 1876, the British Resident in Dera Ghazi Khan, Sir Robert Sandeman, called on the Khan ostensibly to help sort out some quarrels between the sardars. The Britisher inveigled the Khan into appointing him as the Governor General of Balochistan, Khodadad was thus the last Khan to have actually ruled in Kalat, the British empire had reached the boundaries of Iran (then Persia and southern Afghanistan) and they ruled for the next 70 years.
As the time to go home approached, there were misgivings both in London and New Delhi about securing British interests in post war and post independence India where it was assessed that Indian rulers would not be amenable to playing the game of containing Russia in the Cold War that was becoming colder. The British Foreign Secretary in the Attlee Government, Ernest Bevin, who scarcely hid his dislike for the Indians, said with a certain amount of satisfaction at the Margate Labour Conference in June 1947 that the division of India ‘would help to consolidate Britain in the Middle East.’ (from Narendra Singh Sarila’s ‘The Untold Story of India’s Partition: The Shadow of the Great Game.’)
Archibald Wavell, the Viceroy in India from 1943 to 1747 (prior to Mountbatten) had Britain’s post-independence strategic requirement worked out. Sarila mentions that Wavell had summed that because of the costs of the Second World War Britain would have to withdraw from India eventually. India’s primary usefulness in that case would be in the field of defence and not the market. The Muslim League, which wanted a partition of India would be more co-operative in matters relating defence and foreign policy than the Congress Party could assist in bridging the gap in Britain’s defence of the Middle East and the Indian Ocean if the League succeeded in separating India’s northwest from the rest of India. Linlithgow’s (Wavell’s predecessor) who had developed a friendship with Jinnah could help. Conceivably, Wavell discussed this with Churchill in 1945.
It was also in May 1945, after Germany had surrendered, the US had bombed Nagasaki and Hiroshima, the Post-Hostilities Planning Staff of the British War Cabinet had prepared a long term policy appraisal paper for Churchill. The report spoke of the need to have a military connection with the subcontinent to keep the Soviet Union away from the Indian Ocean. The area would provide a logistic link for sea and air communications to the region, quality man power for fighting battles, and bases against the Soviets. The report even suggested that Balochistan could be detached from the rest of India. Two years later the entire British General Staff was in favour of retaining Pakistan in the Commonwealth as the new country would be a tremendous asset in the region.
It was probably in this context that Mountbatten conveyed to the Khan of Kalat ten days before independence that his state was among the two princely states that would gain full independence. Schmidle says the other state was Nepal, but this cannot be because Nepal was already independent. The second state was most probably Kashmir as this fitted into the plan for defence of the imperial interests in India’s northwest and keeping the entire region abutting Afghanistan and Iran under friendly control.
BALOCH UPRISINGS
Bolstered by this assurance, the Khan declared independence on August 11, 1947, four days before Pakistan became independent, (while the Maharaja of Kashmir dithered) and appointed a two-tier legislature with the lower house to have elected representatives. The New York Times reported this the next day with the comment that “Under this agreement Pakistan recognizes Kalat as an independent sovereign state with a status different from that of the Indian States.” This was not to last very long, and in March 22, 1948 three of the other states – Makran, Las Bela and Kharan - that had merged with Kalat, broke away and joined Pakistan, leaving Kalat as a landlocked entity. In April 1952, Kalat also succumbed. In June 1954, Pakistan Government decided to take over the four princely states and merge them with the rest of the Balochistan province. In October 1958, the Khan of Kalat, Mir Ahmed Yar Khan, who had visited the US the previous year, revolted against Pakistan, unfurled his own flag something that Kalat had been using for 500 years. Yar Khan was arrested, stripped of his titles, decorations and his annuity. It is interesting that it was in October 1958 that General Ayub Khan staged the first of many coups in Pakistan and took over after deposing the President and two months later on December 8 1958, Oman formally sold Gwadar to Pakistan. In March 1959, the tribals from Kalat revolted against Pakistan with, as the New York Times reported in May 1959 “with ‘generous backing from Kabul.’” This revolt was put down as would be so many others that followed.
The third Baloch revolt was in 1962 (the first being the declaration of independence and the annexation of Balochistan by Pakistan) essentially by the Marri tribals when they protested against the import of Punjabi settlers, curtailment of some privileges for the sardars and the lack of development in the region.
The fourth revolt from 1973 to 1977 was the big one where all the major tribes – Marri, Mengal, Bugti and Zarakzai – took to arms when Z A Bhutto, the new autocrat disguised as a democrat, refused to concede to the provincial demands on the Baloch. About 50,000 tribesmen in arms (though not the state of art) fought against 80,000 Pakistani forces helped with the Shah of Iran’s money and 30 Cobra helicopters with Iranian pilots and Pak Air Force aircraft. The revolt was suppressed ruthlessly with an estimated death toll of 15,000 Baloch. No Baloch has forgotten the incident of the Chamalang Valley when Pak army aircraft unable to overpower the Baloch guerrillas, resorted to strafing and bombed 15000 families who had taken their livestock out to graze. This had forced the guerrillas to come out of their mountain hideouts and die defending their wives and children. General Musharraf later resorted to even more repressive measures.
The current – fifth - revolt began in January 2005, following the rape of Dr Shazia Khaled and the protection given by the Pakistan Army to the accused Captain Hammad. Nawab Akbar Bugti was enraged because this happened in the Sui (Bugti) area in a protected area and this was slur on the Bugti tribe. Angered by this, the Bugtis attacked the Sui facility and General Musharraf reacted, as he invariably always did, with arrogance and insensitivity. The Baloch revolted and eventually Nawab Akbar Bugti was killed in August 2006. Balochistan erupted in anger which was primarily anti-Army and anti-Punjabi as many Baloch see the Pak Army as a Punjabi Army. Anti-Punjabi sentiments, which are scarcely below the surface in Balochistan were visible in the months after Bugti was killed and many Punjabi were killed in revenge.
Akbar Bugti’s grandson, Brahamdagh Bugti renamed his party as the Balochistan Republican Party (with an armed wing), has since been leading a revolt against the Pakistan Army while Nawabzada Mir Balaach Marri, the second son of Nawab Khair Bux Marri, who had joined in with his group the Baloch Liberation Army was later killed by the Pak Army in November 2007. Balaach’s brother Hyrbyair Marri currently leads the Baloch campaign from England.
At one stage last year it appeared that the new President of Pakistan, Asif Zardari was going to pull off a major success at reconciliation when he apologised to the people of Pakistan for all the excesses against them, promised an all-party conference to look into all the problems of the province and establish a Truth Commission for the Baloch to express their grievances. But this must have been blasphemy to some because Truth Commissions are all very good in distant South Africa but in Balochistan it would mean revealing the embarrassing truth about the several hundred mysterious disappearances of Baloch nationalists under the pretext of fighting the Al Qaeda. The Pak Army could not afford to be shown up in Balochistan and face more anger and disrepute. Further progress on this dangerous path of Zardari was prevented through the disappearance and brutal murder of Ghulam Muhammed Baloch, President of the Baloch National Movement, Lala Munir Baloch from the same party and Sher Mohammed Baloch from Brahamdagh Bugti’s Baloch Republican Party. Violence erupted again, truth and reconciliation are now a thing of the past and this year the Baloch celebrated their independence day on August 11 inside Balochistan by hoisting their own flag and by singing their own national anthem. Elsewhere there were the usual rallies in the US and the UK and demands for human rights and justice. The Khan of Kalat, Mir Suleiman Dawood announced the formation of a Council for Independent Balochistan with Brahamdagh as one of the members. Announcing this from London, Mir Suleiman said that there was no question of reconciliation with Pakistan without the intervention of the UN and EU.
Unlike earlier times, when the Pak Army would put Balochistan in a padded cell and ‘sort out the Baloch’, this is no longer possible in the age of the Internet, Twitter and what have you plus the cell phone. Besides the Baloch all over the world have several websites that keep updating. Of course entry of foreigners into Balochistan is virtually impossible with each arrival notified to seven separate departments. The mandatory minder accompanies everywhere. Despite this, news has been trickling out.
Baloch nationalists have claimed that this year the Baloch National Front hoisted their Baloch flags in Nushki, Kalat, Turbat, Gwadar and Kharan while the Khuzdar Engineering University had to be shut down because a group of students belonging to the Baloch Students’ Organisation wanting to hoist the Baloch flag, clashed with the police.
According to other eyewitness accounts, Quetta looks like a city under siege, with the Army (commonly referred to as Pakistani Occupation Forces - POF) deployed behind makeshift bunkers and barbed wire encampments; armoured personnel carriers and heavy machine guns are meant to intimidate the local population; locals are routinely questioned and humiliated or taken away, especially the ones on motor cycles. In early August they had taken away about 100 persons in their search for the killer of an army trooper. The Baloch refer to themselves as the Baloch Resistance Forces. On August 12, these forces targeted a ‘POF’ convoy with a remotely operated bomb in Quetta destroying two vehicles and killing five soldiers. This was said to be in retaliation to an ongoing operation in Dera Bugti. The Baloch claim to have shot down a helicopter, blown up a 330kv pylon in Dasht, interrupted supplies from Hub, as the people celebrated the Baloch national day all over the province.
The difference between the previous insurgencies and the current one is that the old Lee Enfield .303s have been replaced with AK-47s and the fighting is led not only by the sardars that Islamabad generally tries to ridicule, but also by the middle class and the educated who are politically conscious nationalists. Money from this comes from the Baloch diapsora in the Gulf.
It is difficult to confirm how many troops have been deployed to tackle the Baloch and the estimates vary from 40,000 to 50,000 troops with about 100,000 Frontier Corps personnel. As in the case of the NWFP, deployment of the Army immediately means deployment of a Punjabi Army since there are virtually no Baloch troops in the Pak Army and this means a battle between the Baloch and the Punjabi.
WHY ARE THE BALOCH ANGRY
The British realised very early on that the Baloch, fiercely independent minded by nature and even unruly, were best left alone and they contented themselves with direct rule only in British Balochistan (mainly Pushtun in the northern part of the province) and left the princes to handle their tribesmen. The Pakistanis began to amalgamate the province into Pakistan at about the time gas was discovered in Sui, Dera Bugti in 1953.
Balochistan comprises 48% of Pakistani territory, has only 4% of the total population and despite contributing $ 1.4 billion as revenue in a year gets only US $ 116 million a year on the basis of the population. All or most new employment opportunities are being taken away by the Punjabis because the locals do not meet the required qualifications and that is because literacy is only 16%. The Baloch language is suppressed and the locals have been deprived of prime land in Gwadar to be given away to favourites from outside, they resent the establishment of new cantonments in Sui, Kohlu and Gwadar both because these are signs of oppression and secondly, because this takes away Baloch land at throw away prices. In addition, the US has control of two airbases in Dalbandin and Pangur. The irony of the situation and the degree of discrimination is evident from the fact that although gas was discovered in 1953, the first supply to Balochistan was made only in 1986. The province produces 36% of the country’s gas but gets 12% of the royalties due to it from the gas. Education and health systems are in a shambles and there is acute unemployment. Rural poverty increased by 15 % during the Musharraf years and during the 1999-2000 period while Punjab’s GDP grew by 2.4% annually that of Balochistan grew by .2%. Musharraf promised greater Baloch control of their natural assets and nothing happened like all other promises to the Baloch. The Taliban and their affiliates and loyalists, Pakistanis and Afghans have the freedom to move around in the province; it is the Baloch who are intimidated and killed. The Baloch also fear not only a demographic onslaught but also a Wahhabisation of their essentially secular culture.
In towns like Khuzdar south of Quetta, slogans like “Down with Pakistan” can be seen on the walls. Disappearances of Baloch dissidents are common at the hands of the various forces deployed there – the army, police, Frontier Corps, Rangers, and other militia. Bloggers and websites operated by Baloch nationalists outside Balochistan routinely refer to these arrests and disappearances. In fact, these disappearances were one of the issues over which Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudhry fell out with General Musharraf who then sacked him in November 2007. Student leaders of the Baloch Students’ Organisation to have been arrested on false charges and is not traceable. Baloch nationalists fear that if Qambar is alive he along with other BSO colleagues like Zakir Majeed Baloch and Shahzaib Baloch would probably be languishing in one of Balochistan’s Guantanamo type along with five thousand Baloch nationalists who have disappeared. Baloch nationalists now allege that CJ Choudhry has begun to distance himself from the issue of disappearances is because this was part of the deal with the Army that led to his restoration.
Baloch nationalists had been threatening Punjabis and asking them to leave. Anti-Punjabi feelings erupted once again last June when Baloch nationalists resorted to killing of Punjabi teachers, including the principal, at the Balochistan Residential College in Khuzdar forcing the closure of the college. Principals of the Government College, Quetta and the Secondary School at Mastung had been killed as well. This has had an effect on the land prices of Punjabi-owned properties in places like Quetta where the owners, feeling insecure have tried to leave the province. Although this sort of killing does have a down side to it, including a distancing from the nationalists among the Pushtun who are the second largest community in Balochistan and could lead to an exodus of college professors, many also say that this was in retaliation to the killing of three Baloch nationalists earlier in April.
Balochistan’s rich natural resources and especially its gas are important for Pakistan’s economy which is nowadays controlled by the Punjabi elite and the Army. They wish to continue to hold this supremacy. All deals that are struck in Balochistan are for the benefit of the Punjabi industrial base – in return for providing 64% of Punjabi consumers with Baloch gas, the Baloch themselves get only 3.4%; the province produces US $ 1.4 billion worth of gas but receives only $ 114 in royalties. No political, bureaucratic or military structure wants to change this.
The Baloch were upset that the Pakistan government was striking deals with Iran and maybe India over the gas pipeline without taking Baloch interests on board. Nawab Akbar Bugti had begun his campaign in 2005, and in June 2006, the Baloch Provincial Assembly passed a resolution demanding transit royalties from the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline and a Baloch presence at the negotiating table. In August 2006, Nawab Bugti was killed by Pakistani forces. In May 2009 Pakistan and Iran signed a Pakistan-Iran pipeline and price agreement in Teheran. The agreement and the price accord stipulates that Iran would sell the gas at a variable rate from US $ 7 to US $ 13 per MMBTU depending upon variation in the price of the Japanese Crude Cocktail rates per barrel. Compared to this, the Baloch gas is purchased at only 63 cents per MMBTU by the Pakistan Petroleum Limited and the entire amount goes to the federal government. The disparity is obvious.
The Baloch also see no benefit for themselves from this or the TAPI pipeline. They fear that gas would be pumped directly to the Punjab and Sindh. All construction work will go to outsiders, the Baloch will be dispossessed of land, security will be enhanced which means more Punjabi forces. Political unrest will continue till this issue among others is resolved.
ISLAMABAD’S REACTION TO BALOCH DEFIANCE
Islamabad’s reaction to the Baloch nationalists is typical. The first strand is the military option. This means increased deployment of the Army, new cantonments in Sui, Kohlu and Gwadar, in addition to the two at Sibi and Quetta, as already mentioned along with other military infrastructure and surveillance capabilities. There are also plans to create local forces but the central aim is to increase the capabilities of the forces to protect energy specific and anti-nationalist capabilities. The thrust is to militarily subdue the nationalists rather than accommodate any of their demands.
The second strand has been to try and manage the situation through political management which consists of political persecution, under which arrests and disappearances are common; the killing of Akbar Bugti and Balaach Marri, leader of the banned Baloch Liberation Army, was part of this muscular policy. The killing of both the leaders had led to widespread resentment and disturbances in Balochistan. This has not abated. They have also tried to divide the nationalists and also create an ethnic divide among the Pushtun and the Baloch, and win over some of the leaders. This is aggravated by the presence of Afghan Pushtun refugees and the Afghan Taliban led by Mullah Omar in and around Quetta for several years with the Pakistan establishment unwilling to take any action against them.
The third course of action is to hermitically seal the province and launch a sustained demonization campaign against the Baloch by either being dismissive of the campaign as the result of the whims a few backward and autocratic Sardars who do not want progress as this would mean a reduction of their traditional influence and hold. The government asserts that modernisation and development of ports like Gwadar would benefit the people, do away with the age-old practice of bonded labour and provide schools, colleges and hospitals.
Not so, say the Baloch. The Baloch movement is no longer one that is confined to the desires and aspirations of the sardars but has a strong middle class educated element to it. All benefits would accrue to the Punjabis, the Army and their henchmen. Baloch nationalists argue that the decisions on these projects like the Gwadar port and the Kachhi irrigation canal project were taken without consulting or involving the Baloch. They say prime land along the Makran coast is being bought off the Baloch very cheap and sold to outsiders (meaning Punjabi) and similarly Baloch land has been acquired by the military to establish additional military cantonments. Huge profits have made by non-Balochis, especially the Punjabis. Outsiders are being shipped into Balochistan to work on these sites so the local Baloch get no employment benefit either along with the fear that they will be demographically disadvantaged over time.
There is another element to government strategy. This is to belittle the nationalist movement and then to simultaneously paint is an Indian-inspired terrorism. While it is fashionable in Pakistan for the media and politicians to blame India for all the troubles in Pakistan recent experience in the NWFP and FATA showed that the Pushtun trooper was reluctant to take on his cousins, brothers and fellow Pushtun and Muslims in the fight against the Taliban insurgency in the NWFP. However, the portrayal of the Baitullah Mehsud’s Pakistani Taliban as Hindu-India aided helped motivate the soldiers. Similar tactics are now being applied in Balochistan.
Perhaps the leader in this campaign is retired Army Chief, General Mirza Aslam beg. His bizarre article of March 29, 2009 is an accurate description of the Goebellsian doctrine at work in Islamabad. The General wrote:
“We have enough information to identify this intelligence network inside Afghanistan, fairly accurately, to determine the dimensions of this Great Game, of the civilised world. The nerve centre is at Jabal-us-Seraj, manned and operated by CIA, Raw, Mossad, MI-6 and BND (German intelligence). It’s a huge set-up with concrete buildings, antennas and all the modern electronic gadgetry one can conceive of. Its out-posts are Sarobi and Kandahar against Pakistan. Faizabad, against China; Mazar-e-Sharif, against Russia and Central Asian States and Herat against Iran.”
He goes on to say “Intelligence Network of Occupation Forces in Afghanistan against Pakistan. Sarobi is the nerve centre headed by an Indian General officer, who also commands the Border Road Organisation (BRO). Its forward bases are Ghazni, Khost, Gardez, Jalalabad, Asadabad, Wakhan and Faizabad. BRO has built an all weather road from Sarobi to Asadabad to Faizabad. Sarobi network, targets the province of NWFP, Pakistan.
“Dissidents from Pakistan, are trained at Sarobi for missions inside NWFP. Wakhan salient has been infested with dozens of electronic outposts, covering Pakistan, China, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
“Kandahar has its forward bases at Lashkargah and Nawah. Their target area is the province of Balochistan. The dissidents from Balochistan are trained at Lashkargah for undertaking missions in Balochistan as well as in support of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA).
“One of their tasks is to target Chinese working in the province, particularly at Gwadar, Sandak and Hub. The American anchorages, on the Pakistani coast at Jiwani and Kalamat, jointly plan operations with BLA inside Balochistan. They also use the Pakistani out-posts at Mand, for operations inside Iran. The American warships in the Arabian Sea and their intelligence base in Muscat, provide the back-up support. The facilities at Jiwani and Kalamat were provided by Pakistan, as logistic support bases to the Americans for operation in Afghanistan, but the same are now being used, to destabilise Balochistan and Iran.
“The set-up at Faizabad (Badakhshan) holds over personnel mainly Muslim soldiers, engineers and workers from India. It serves as the training camp for the Chinese dissidents from the Xinjiang province. Indian Ulemas impart motivational education, giving the impression that the entire out-fit at Faizabad was run by Pakistanis. The recently acquired facility for military deployment by India, across the border in Tajikistan at Kalai Kumli, adds a meaningful capability to India to operate inside Tajikistan, as well as Uzbekistan.
“Against Russia. The intelligence base at Mazar-e-Sharif is run jointly by CIA, RAW, Mossad and BND. Chechnyan dissidents and agents from Turkmenistan are trained for operations in these countries. Rasheed Dostam and Ahmad Zia Masood are very active supporters of such activitiesin Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
“Against Iran. The forward base at Herat and Farah are manned by CIA, RAW and Mossad for subversive activities inside Iran. Jointly operating from these bases and the bases inside Pakistan, such as Kalamat, Jiwani and Mand, they have been able to undertake actions inside Iran, killing a number of security forces personnel in the last few years. The terrorist organisation named Jandullah has been used for conduct of such operations inside Iran.
“Pakistan and Iran are being blamed for supporting terrorists in Afghanistan, whereas Afghan territory is being violated so blatantly to destabilise the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, by nations, who claim to be the flag bearers of the ideals of international norms of justice and fair play. This is the worst kind of ‘Terrorism Through Consensus’, by the so-called civilised nations, in occupation of Afghanistan. The brutal violation of Afghanistan’s sovereignty for the shameful purpose of destabilisation of Pakistan and the regional countries, is condemnable.
“Was this the purpose of the strategic partnership deal between India, United States and NATO”?
This quotation from an article written by the General is lengthy but necessary. This is the usual Pakistani way of blaming others and comes mainly from a persecution complex that the entire world is to be blamed for Pakistan’s problems, and that the entire world is conspiring against Pakistan. On this one, however, he has let his imagination get the better of him. The General has repeated this argument in other articles too. Since then there has been a concerted campaign in the Pakistani media against Indian involvement in NWFP and FATA with Baitullah Mehsud first described as Pakistani patriot and then an Indian agent. The campaign about 12 Indian consulates in Afghanistan hatching conspiracies against Pakistan and especially in Balochistan is now gathering momentum. The latest in this round accusations against India is that now there are 26 Indian consulates in Afghanistan and Iran along the Pakistan border It was Hitler’s propaganda minister, Joseph Goebells who said “Tell a lie that is big enough, and repeat it often enough, and the whole world will believe it.” The Pakistani rulers are hoping that the rest of the world will believe this if they say it often enough.
The Pakistani establishment has many reasons for projecting this lie. There was no reason for India to give any credence to this lie which we have done by including this in the Sharm el- Sheikh joint statement of July 16. Since then the Pakistani campaign has become a noisy din. There was no need for us to first raise them to our level by stating that like India they too are victims of terrorism; then we lower ourselves to their level by indirectly admitting that we, like them, are sponsors of terrorism. It is apparent that they need to demonise the Baloch nationalists to be better able to launch assaults against them. The expectation in Islamabad and Rawalpindi must be that there will be pressure on Islamabad to do something against the Afghan Taliban in Balochistan. When that pressure becomes unbearable then this advance demonization against the Baloch will help in going after them under the pretext of hunting for the Taliban. And if the hunt does not succeed then there is a ready excuse to give to the Americans. Machiavellian, no. Too clever by half, yes.
BALOCHISTAN AND THE NEW GREAT GAME
There are three new found roles for Balochistan in the new geo-strategic Great Game in the region. And the main players are Pakistan, China, the US and Iran with India and Russia also on the bench. With the economic rise of China and then of India, energy requirements and energy security have a new meaning for these Asian nations as well. Robert G. Wirsing discusses this at length in his monograph entitled ‘Baloch Nationalism and the Geopolitics of Energy Resources: The Changing Context of Separatism in Pakistan,’ April 2008.
The discovery of gas and sizable reserves of coal in Balochistan, the possibility of discovery of oil and the discovery of the world’s largest copper and gold reserves at Reko Diq, close to the Iran Afghan borders is estimated to be worth US $ 65 billion, makes Balochistan a profitable destination for prospectors and investors. Exploration by Barrick Gold in co-operation with a Chilean company Antofagasta Minerals (the two together own 75% of the shares and only 25% by the Balochistan Development Authority) has already begun. Pakistan’s proven gas reserves in 2006 were estimated to be 28 trillion cubic feet of which 19 tcf (68%) were in Balochistan. The one major problem with the gas production and supply has been the steadily increasing and more efficient attacks on the pipelines and the production facilities by Baloch nationalists since 2002. Nationalist violence has steadily escalated and by 2006 when the latest figures were available, there were 843 attacks that year, including 31 on gas pipelines and others on different targets and mine blasts. Supplies to Punjab have been cut off on occasions but the nationalists have graduated to hitting production sites.
Balochistan’s other importance is that it lies on the routes of two prospective pipelines. One is the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline that originates from the massive South Pars gas fields of Iran crosses into Khuzdar, Balochistan on to Multan and Jhang and then eventually to Delhi and western India via Jaisalmer. The other is the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline that originates from the Dauletabad gas fields and runs through Herat and Kandahar through Quetta, Sui and then to Delhi and western India again via Jaisalmer. Technically sound on the drawing board, there are obvious problems of unsettled areas on of Afghanistan, the nationalist insurgency in Balochistan and above all the attitude of Pakistan especially at times of tension if not hostilities.
Given the state of India-Pakistan relations it would be a miracle if this were to work to the satisfaction of all. Further, the Americans are unlikely to view the Iranian deal with any favour but would rather that the TAPI deal came through by which time Afghanistan would have been pacified. This is a gamble that is most certainly high stakes because 1200 kilometres of the pipeline or 58% would travel through sensitive areas which is substantial. With a hesitant India, the Pakistanis are now looking at the prospect of having the pipeline run down to Gwadar. It is doubtful if any economic or financial benefits will accrue to the Baloch in the near term assuming of course that Islamabad would have been willing to share revenues with the Baloch or allowed the Baloch the employment opportunities these pipelines would have generated. Besides Balochistan is known to be rich in copper and coal; with a good prospect that oil could be found in the province.
The third aspect is Gwadar. The Chinese built this rapidly after 2002 when they saw the Americans entering Central Asia and Afghanistan in their fight against terrorism. The obvious worry was to secure energy supplies and not be dependent on routes that could be subject to interdiction, especially when the Indians and the Americans had decided to co-operate in patrolling the Malacca Straits. Besides the beleaguered Pakistan President General Musharraf had to be given some succour in his hour of need and prove once again China’s steadfastness. The Pakistanis hope that this would be the Arabian Sea’s Dubai or Singapore and the coast line would be its Riviera. Pakistan would then become a key player as transit point into and from Central Asia, into western China and back with pipelines, rail and road links linked to the Karakoram Highway while at the same time firmly integrated into the Economic Cooperation Organisation launched Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. If the TAPI or IPI pipelines were to become a reality then all this could transform Pakistan into a modern economically sound state. Besides, for India this means extending its Navy in times of hostilities.
Unfortunately for the Baloch, they are destined to live under the shadow of Afghanistan. Their problems are likely to remain unnoticed as the US and western gaze is fixed on NWFP-FATA and AfPAk. In fact, Balochistan would be considered an unnecessary divergence. Besides the Baloch problem is that their numbers are not enough and they are scattered in three countries. Iran would not view any pan-Baloch movement very favourably and the Baloch may end up being like the Kurds.
Then there are conflicting and merging interests in the region. China and Pakistan would naturally not want any instability in Balochistan. The Chinese have invested over time with money, military supplies and support in nuclear and missile technology. They see Gwadar as an important stepping stone into the Persian Gulf and overlooking the Arabian Sea lanes. This has become very important for them after the US presence dramatically increased in Central Asia and Afghanistan Pakistan after September 11, 2001. Unnerved by this, the Chinese have begun looking for alternative energy supply routes and would wait for the day when the US and NATO finally quit the region.
For Pakistan too it is imperative that this project in Gwadar takes off with all the other subsequent spin offs not just economic but also strategic that accompany especially in relation to India. It is important also for its general economic survival. So long as Balochistan is unstable the Pakistan economy will struggle. According to one report by Syed Fazl-e-Hyder in the Asia Times of August 14, the Chinese have shelved their multi-million dollar oil refinery project in Gwadar as there had been no progress on the project since the agreement was signed. Earlier in January this year the UAE also pulled out of Coastal Refinery Project at Hub. It is possible both may have pulled out of these projects because of the global meltdown and this stoppage may be temporary but for Pakistan and the multibillion dollar mega oil city project in Gwadar continued delays and uncertainties will cause serious economic and financial difficulties.
For the US, it seems this would be a multipronged weapon. Pakistan is an important keystone on the eastern fringes of a turbulent and resource rich Muslim world but unfortunately it has become equally unstable and volatile. Yet it remains an entry point to Central Asia and the Caspian for access to its energy resources, for a check on Iran but for which Balochistan must remain peaceful and stable. But without sustained American presence and interest, Pakistan would give free access to a rising China that is now getting ready for the day they assess that the US will lower its shadow in the region as the cost in men and material of a war in Afghanistan gets unbearable in the US public perception. Besides, the manner in which the campaign is being conducted by the US and NATO gives little reason to be optimistic about its success. For the present, it seems that Baloch nationalist aspirations are unlikely to draw much international attention and may instead be sacrificed at the altar of geo-strategic interests. Besides, President Obama cannot reasonably be expected to let this become his endless war.
It would be a mistake to ignore Russian interest in this region, particularly attempts to influence its Near Abroad, long considered as its own backyard. Their moves to counter American and Chinese influence designed to bypass Russia in the energy game are not going to be left unanswered. Iran will be a factor in the Russian calculation. Russia may have declined since 1990 but it is far away from oblivion and it still has a strong military machine along with high-technology, especially nuclear, of Indian interest.
India, as the regional power and neighbour, must exhibit this status to secure its national interests. It is only when this is done actively will others learn to respect Indian interests. It cannot sit and watch idly as the others play their role in their national interests because a passive approach or that of conciliation amounts to appeasement in the Pakistani perception. Our national interest demands that we continue to strengthen our relations with Iran and Afghanistan to bypass a permanently hostile Pakistan no matter what it takes. This means that our policies towards Iran and Afghanistan would be determined by our interests first and not by others’ interests.
The Baloch are a secular people, they have been our friends and we must retain their friendship. We do not have to launch any foolish ventures but we can give them moral and diplomatic support for the fulfilment of their natural desire for self-determination and economic and political equality. While Balochistan remains Pakistan’s internal problem, we cannot be seen to be helpless if there is injustice in our neighbourhood. At the same time, what is happening in Balochistan is not India sponsored terrorism unlike what is happening in India where Pakistan sponsored terrorism by the Lashkar e Tayyaba and others continues unabated. War is an ugly option but it is an option that one would not exercise but before that there several intermediate options - economic, political, para-military/covert that can be considered.
The players may have changed from the 19th century but the game goes on and Balochistan could well be the centre piece for exercising control in a world that is running out of energy sources. The situation is going to remain fluid in the years ahead and only the powerful and nimble footed will win.
Source : Eternal India ,September 2009
