Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Talibanisation of Pakistan and the Growth of Jihadi Culture

TALIBANISATION OF PAKISTAN AND THE GROWTH OF JIHADI CULTURE

By

Vikram Sood

‘See what a scourge is laid upon your hate’
William Shakespeare – Romeo and Juliet

Some might suggest that this may not be the most appropriate way to describe the tragedy that is being enacted in Pakistan today. Years ago many lamented that places like Jhang, in southern Punjab, the home of Heer Ranjha had become the home of sectarian hatred where Shias were described as kafirs. Sadly this is the story of today’s Pakistan.

Pakistan’s development into a highly Islamised society today can be divided into five periods. From the time of independence till 1971when it was period of search for a non-India identity and a desire to be India’s equal and if not that then to reduce India to its own size. The Seventies were a period of reflection and recuperation and marked by the brutal repression of the Baloch and the arrival of Zia. The Eighties were the heady days of the Afghan jihad where Afghanistan helped acquiring skills and the Indian Punjab theatre was for testing the enemy. The jihad had reaffirmed the power of the faith. The Nineties, having acquired nuclear technology under the benign neglect of its western allies and having tested the bomb kind courtesy the Chinese in Lop Nor in 1990 and confident it could now cut India asunder, Pakistan launched its Kashmir jihad. Not satisfied with this, it also felt strong enough to open a second jihadi front by mentoring the Taliban. It was this arrogance that led to the Kargil misadventure in 1999. We are today witnessing the fifth period of Pakistan’s Islamisation in the post September 2001 where the Pakistani establishment is having to battle its own surrogates. Jihad had become a foreign policy instrument, a force equaliser with India, a means to seek strategic depth in Afghanistan and today it is also a means to acquire financial and military assistance from an anxious West.

There are many in Pakistan who shudder at the thought of what their country has become and the direction in which it is heading but their voice is weak and drowned by the coarseness of the opposition which is armed and dangerous that is willing to kill other Muslims in the name of Islam. They are worried that the rise of religious intolerance is a threat to their fundamental rights and liberties and what is more worrying, they are frightened that if they assert this too strongly they will be declared apostates.

The Early Years

The seeds of this were sown right in the beginning. Pakistan had to be invented almost overnight for the millions and its identity and nationhood imagined. In the early days Pakistan was conceived by a group of elite Muslims who had never lived in the part that eventually became Pakistan. The campaign was on behalf of Muslims who eventually opted to stay behind and on behalf of millions others who were not interested and even opposed to the idea of Pakistan. Thus, one morning many millions woke up in Quetta Peshawar and elsewhere to discover that they had a new address but were not sure of their identity.

And that has been a major problem ever since. From the very beginning, everything had to be non-India, non-Hindu. Pakistani leaders would deny their Indo-Gangetic heritage and seek recognition elsewhere. Instead of being home to Muslims of the subcontinent that it set out to be, a succession of leaders, political and military made it the centre for religious bigotry, sectarian hatred and ethnic divisiveness.

Convinced and therefore fearful that the much larger India would one day swallow Pakistan, the country became a national security state. The Pak policy making elite, encouraged by the Armed Forces in their self serving interests defined threat to Pakistan in terms of the Indian peril. India’s actions were consistently considered hegemonist, its attitude arrogant and designs threatening. Thus any possibility of India acquiring a prominent role in the region, given its comparative military advantage, was seen as a potential threat.

Pakistan’s tragedy was that the feudal politician relied on the army and the mullah to shore his position against this rivals and the Army got rid of the politician from whom he had little respect and relied on the mullah to fill the vacuum and seek justification for its rule and role. Thus, invariably always the Pak Army has aligned itself with the Islamic right after having got rid of the mainstream political opposition because the mainstream politician tended to be too devious and there was always the fear that a popularly elected politician would seek to either curb the Army or make peace with India or both. The military mullah nexus has grown stronger over the years and it has been the Army that has nurtured them to the point that today they threaten to run out of control. Each time a politician has tried to control the Armed Forces or to vaguely attempt some reform, he has suffered for instance, ZA Bhutto (1977), Benazir Bhutto (1991 and 1996) and Nawaz Sharif (1999). In between Bhutto and Sharif were allowed limited freedoms in running the country but the nuclear option, India and Afghanistan were out of bounds for them.

Pakistan’s political leaders were ready to give in to religious demands or pander to the Mullah. It was not the religious or sectarian parties that have pushed Pakistan towards fundamentalism. Islam sat easily with the politician and the people after all it was a Muslim homeland but the politician was pushing it towards a more fundamentalist path. Everyone thinks of Field Marshall Ayub Khan as the epitome of modernity and secularism with his Sandhurst background. A careful reading of his speeches on national integration suggests that these were addressed to the religious lobbies. In 1962 he declared: `Pakistan came into being on the basis of an ideology which does not believe in differences of colour, race or language. It is immaterial whether you are a Bengali or a Sindhi, a Baluchi or a Pathan or a Punjabi - we are all knit together by the bond of Islam.` The Council for Islamic Ideology was established during his rule to scrutinise laws for their conformity to religion.

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the great leftist and socialist was the one who agreed to the demand to declare the Qadianis non-Muslims in 1974. He also capitulated to the Nizam-e-Mustafa movement by taking certain symbolic measures towards Islamisation and Pakistan became an Islamic Republic in his time. The National Education Policy of 1972 declared that Islam is woven firmly into Pakistani society and latter day education policies only ente3nched this further.

It was Benazir Bhutto`s Home Minister Gen Nasirullah Babar who invented the Taliban and it was during her second tenure that the Taliban gained control of Kabul in 1996 and her government was the first to recognise their rule. Again, during Nawaz Sharif’s first tenure, instituted the death penalty for blasphemy, a law which was then abused by religious zealots against the Ahmadiya and Christian communities. In his second tenure he introduced his infamous Shariat Bill which would have effectively made him Amir-ul-Momineen, for it was designed to gain power by deciding virtue and vice and imposing it upon the country. Most recently, the ANP has entered into a desperate agreement with TNSM for Shariat in return for peace - an expensive peace which may or may not come about! Liberal, centrist and Left-oriented leaders and parties have contributed heavily to the rise of religious fanaticism in order to maintain their hold on power.

Thus it was not Zia ul Haq alone who is responsible for the Islamisation of Pakistan. Each Pakistani leader, from Jinnah to Musharraf contributed although of course Zia was the main contributor in all spheres of Pakistani society especially the Army and the civil service. It was the Zia years that provided the additional fervour for Islamisation. The General went around with the single-mindedness of a zealot to turn the threat of Soviet Russia into an opportunity for grafting his brand of austere Islam on the people. The maulvi of the regiment, till then the butt of many jokes became an all important person; the tenets of Islam had to be rigidly observed. All this is very well documented so one need not repeat all that happened in the Zia years.

The Army Acquires a State

The initial weakness and factionalism of Pak politicians, the desire of the Punjabi and Karachi bureaucrat to control the new state led to an excessive reliance on the military for support where the latter two combined against the politician. From then on to a series of military coups is now a well-documented history of modern Pakistan.

Today, the Pak Army, in particular, is the strongest political force in the country, although under some pressure currently. Its power and influence, built steadily over the last few decades, remains all pervasive despite the fact that nominally there is civilian government in Islamabad. It has been helped in this by both the US and China in pursuit of their strategic interests. Pakistan has been a willing surrogate for the former and a cat’s paw for the latter.

It has acquired enormous economic and financial interests in the country. The Fauji Foundation and the Army Welfare trust are the two largest conglomerates in Pakistan.
Along with the Shaheen Foundation and the Behara Foundation, they delve into diverse ventures varying from bakeries, farms, schools, private security firms, commercial banks, insurance companies, radio and TV stations, fertilizer and cement factories, and cereal manufacture. They collect toll at highways, manage PSUs like the PIA and WAPDA, gas stations and shopping malls. Its officers and to a lesser extent, its men receive favourable treatment and largesse by way of land allocations and sinecures in the civilian sector as well as plum posts. The latter has been curbed by General Kayani but this could easily be reversed at any time.

Talibanisation of the Mind

Today Talibanisation is a metaphor for obscurantism and intolerance; it is the Pakistani version of Wahabbism that replaces the soft Sufi Islam of the subcontinent by a medieval rigidity. Babar Sattar (The News May 9, 2009) describes it best in a recent article when he says “Simply put it [Talibanisation] is bigotry, intolerance, obscurantism and coercion practiced in the name of religion that feeds on (a) the fear of change being ushered in by modernity, (b) confusion about the role of religion in the society, and (c) the failure of the state to provide for the basic needs of citizens, including means of subsistence the absence of which renders people desperate and a balanced education without which they lack the tools to question and resist extreme intolerant ideas. The message of the Taliban or other religious bigots can be simple and appealing to a majority of the population that is deprived of basic needs, disempowered and consequently disgruntled. The contract between the citizens and the state is not being honoured by the state and thus the system neither provides for the basic needs of a majority of the citizens nor offers them any real prospect for upward social mobility. This problem of governance is then presented by the maulvi as a consequence of lack of religion.”
The Taliban of today are different from the ones that the Pakistanis sent into Kandahar in 1994 in terms of reach and composition, but retain their essential extremist tendencies. They are not just Afghans from the madrassas of the NWFP and Balochistan. One could call them fragmented or a conglomerate depending upon how they were shaping out. Typical of Pushtun behavioural patterns, there have also been shifting alliances of convenience. The southern Afghan Taliban are more or less unified under Mullah Omar and based around the Quetta Shura. In the east however, facing Pakistan and inside Pakistan, the groups are more diffuse. Pakistan’s hitherto India specific groups like the Punjab- based Lashkar- e-Tayyaba and Jaish-e-Mohammed are rendering service with the Taliban of Waziristan. So also are Hizb-e-Islami of Gulbuddin Hikmetyar, the Jalaluddin Haqqani network very popular with the Pakistan ISI and an associate of the Al Qaida and Taliban at different times, and now we have the Waziristan Shura of the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan of Baitullah Mehsud while others also describe Maulana Sufi Mohammed’s Tehrik e Nifaz Shariat Muhammedi as the Malakand Shura of the Taliban. There are now reports of a Punjab branch of the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan. There is thus a wide choice and the Pakistanis would like to convince the world of the existence of the moderate Taliban (those who battle Afghanistan) and the extreme Taliban (those who battle Pakistan). It is difficult to estimate the strength of the Taliban insurgent forces in the Afghanistan and Pakistan; the estimate could be upward of 40000 to 50000 but the hard core would be much smaller. Some estimates put this figure of hard core as 10000 in Afghanistan and about 5000 in Pakistan. The rest are on call in different districts.

Over time the Taliban have acquired experience, skills and weapons along with newer means of communication. They still do not have the strength to conquer territory in mainland Pakistan but the danger is that the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban together threaten Pakistan and Afghanistan with their desire to form an Islamic emirate of greater Pushtunistan. It has to be remembered that by 2006 on a resurge, some of the slogans of the Taliban have been very ethnic cum religious. For instance some of the slogans have been, “Our party, the Taliban”, “Our people and nation, the Pushtun”, “Our economy, the poppy,” Our constitution, the Sharia,” “Our form of government, the emirate.” We have had the sharia implemented the Taliban way in Malakand and there has been frequent reference to the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan. Their strategy has been one of attrition and exhaustion of the counterinsurgent forces, not conquering of territory in non-Pushtun areas as they do not have the means to overthrow the government through use of force but have the capacity and local popularity to move in where the government is absent or corrupt, unjust and negligent in the extreme. The threat to Pakistan is perhaps less from the Taliban but infinitely more from the Talibanisation of the mind.

The image of Pakistan lies not just in the sophisticated salons of Lahore as many here naively believe. It is the villages that have begun to change drastically where huge loudspeakers at village mosques propagate hard Salafi Islam, oppose Barelvis, Sufis, Shias and other sects as none of these are considered to be Muslims. Even the Punjabis, long considered to be more liberal towards women, are now adopting the Taliban line. Classical music is disappearing, teaching music is violently opposed by the Islami Jamaat-e-Tulaba at the Punjab University, there are few kathak teachers– once the favourite dance at the Mughal courts –available today. Girls at the Kinnaird College Lahore cannot wear jeans to college and head scarves are compulsory in many schools. Again according to Sattar, “Be it warnings delivered to the medical community in NWFP to wear shalwar qameez, or edicts issued to music shops and barbers, or threats communicated to schools, or reports regarding women being harassed in bazaars and public spaces more generally, there has been a surge in vigilante action being carried out by our self-styled moral police. The worst justification for the Nizam-e-Adl regulation comes from liberals within the ANP and the PPP claiming that this legislation doesn't set up a parallel system of justice, as it is merely procedural law adorned with Islamic nomenclature. Accepting the demand to 'enforce' religion legitimizes the discourse of bigots and their obscurantist project of personally stepping into God's shoes to judge fellow Muslims, taking a measure of their sins and delivering divine justice in this world on God's behalf. The growing intolerance that our society is witnessing with mute horror is fuelled by our odious brand of hypocrisy that encourages double-speak in the name of protecting and preserving tradition, culture and religion.” But these are outward signs yet no longer isolated incidents. Pakistan has moved away from the salons of Lahore and the soirees of Karachi.

What has been happening is best described by Pervez Hoodbhoy in his article “The Saudi-isation of Pakistan”. He says “Pakistan’s self inflicted suffering comes from an education system that, like Saudi Arabia’s, provides an ideological foundation for violence and future jihadists. It demands that Islam be understood as a complete code of life, and creates in the mind of a school-going child a sense of siege and embattlement by stressing that Islam is under threat everywhere.” Hoodbhoy describes the education curriculum that is prescribed as “a blue print for a religious fascist state.” This curriculum has been in existence from the time of Zia ul Haq and successive governments including that of the self-proclaimed moderate Musharraf, have merely tinkered with it and today the young minds are fertile grounds for fanaticism.

The country that Jinnah thought of did not move from his version to what it is today in a flash but has been moving towards it for decades but has gathered rapid momentum today, a momentum that is so strong that many wonder if this can at all be stemmed, if not reversed. In its early years Pakistan’s leaders portrayed their country – and the West championed this – that theirs was modern Islamic nation even as they surreptitiously used religion to advance their political fortunes.

Some like Rubina Saigol (The News February 21, 2009) have even questioned Jinnah’s intentions about secularism and modernism. Her essay ‘Myths versus Facts About Fundamentalism’ is to dismantle eight of the most common myths about Muslim fundamentalism and extremism ‘(in our part of the world) by juxtaposing such myths against observable facts.’ One of the myths she dismantles is the belief or the claim that fundamentalism is the result of mental and moral backwardness, attitudes religion and beliefs. Her argument is that ‘Fundamentalism is about geopolitics, involving power, money, and control over territory, people and resources. If we examine the actions and pronouncements of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or the Swat Taliban - actions that include beheading, rape, murder, public display of dead bodies, public executions, suicide bombings killing scores of innocent people - it is not hard to discern that such actions have little to do with religion or a moral order. Through brutal means and barbaric methods, the Taliban have gained control over territory in Swat and Waziristan. They have forced the government to accept their power over people and resources through the Nizam-e-Adl agreement reached between the Tehreek-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Muhammadi`s Maulana Sufi Muhammad and the provincial government of the ANP. Apart from drug trafficking, the money is raised from donations received from Saudi Arabia and other countries and goes to pay Rs15,000-20,000 per month to about ten thousand militant followers of Maulana Fazlullah’.

Ms. Saigol also corrects the common myth that only religious parties and sectarian outfits support or forge fundamentalism. The history of Pakistan shows that ‘Fundamentalism has been supported or encouraged as much by the so-called secular elite as by religious parties to maintain class power and privilege. The common assumption that only parties like the JUI-F, JUI-S and Jamaat-e-Islami and sectarian and Jehadi outfits like Sipah-e-Sahaba-e-Pakistan or Harkat-ul-Mujahideen support fundamentalism in Pakistan overlooks the constant capitulation to religious extremism by seemingly secular and liberal parties. Most analysts like to quote Jinnah`s August 11, 1947, speech to argue that he envisioned a secular state, but in several of his other speeches he catered to the religious lobby`s sentiments to justify the two-nation concept. In 1940 he declared: `It is extremely difficult to appreciate why our Hindu friends fail to understand the real nature of Islam and Hinduism. They are not religious in the strict sense of the word, but are, in fact, different and distinct social orders, and it is a dream that the Hindus and Muslims can ever evolve a common nationality, and this misconception of one Indian nation has troubles and will lead India to destruction if we fail to revise our notions in time. The Hindus and Muslims belong to two different religious philosophies, social customs, literature. They neither intermarry nor inter-dine together and, indeed, they belong to two different civilisations which are based mainly on conflicting ideas and conceptions.`

One aspect though that bears repetition is because it is quite often overlooked or at least not fully appreciated. This is that all jihadis were not the products of the NWFP/Balochistan madrassas. On the contrary, many of the jihadis were students at the mainstream schools of Pakistan where too the syllabus was one of distortion of history fed on a diet of hatred for the non- Muslim.

Undoubtedly, madrassas in Pakistan and the madrassa culture as it is commonly referred to, have been the symbols of Islamisation. They were the recruiting grounds and universities for the jehadi foot soldiers for the Afghan and the Kashmir theatre with their own sectarian beliefs and affiliations to different schools of Islamic thought. No one really knows how many madrassas there are and where and exactly what is taught in all of them. Pakistan’s Minister of Religious Affairs told the Brussels-based International Crisis Group in 2002 that the number was 10,000. There has not been any appreciable change in the number. The total number of students at these madrassas is estimated to be more than 1.5 million. Of course not all madrassas teach jehad.

Rubina Saigol says that today the largest recruitment for Afghan and Kashmir Jehad is from the Punjab followed by the NWFP, Sindh and Balochistan. Amir Rana`s study reveals that Punjab contributes about 50 percent of the Jihadi workforce, followed by the NWFP, Sindh and Balochistan. Punjab has the largest number of deeni madaris (5459 according to a 2002 study). The NWFP, Sindh and Balochistan have 2,483, 1,935 and 769, respectively. Karachi alone accounts for about 2,000 madrassahs. Statistics collected by the ministry of education show that FATA has 135 while Islamabad alone has 77 deeni madaris. According to Rana, the great majority of militants from the Punjab were sent to fight in Kashmir by groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, while most of the Pakhtoon and Balochi youth from the NWFP and Balochistan were sent to and killed in Afghanistan. Most belonged to the JUI-F and the TNSM (which has now entered into an agreement with the ANP government of the NWFP). A large number of organisations, such as Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Harkat-ul-Jabbar wal Islami, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Al Badr and Lashkar-e-Islam have participated in the Kashmir and Afghan Jihad getting their poor foot soldiers killed while the leaders enjoy luxurious lifestyles that include Pajeros, expensive mobile phones, large houses and frequent air travel.

Research conducted by the Liberal Forum Pakistan some years ago on the kinds of subjects taught at some of the madrassas found that books published by the Lashkar-e-Taiba were distributed to institutions and madrassas run by the Lashkar’s ideological master the Jamaat-ud Dawa. The theme or the message was that, “Muslims alone have the right to rule the world and are allowed to kill infidels that stand in the way of Islam.” Seven-year old students continue to be taught that infidels are cowards who run away in fear and terror when a holy warrior attacks them; those that kill Hindus are super-heroes; children are taught to beat non-Muslims mercilessly. All second graders are advised that every student should become a holy warrior. Games are about guerrillas and infidels; poems are about the glory of waging jehad and fictitious letters from jehadis are circulated among children. These books are given free of charge to the students. This is where the country’s impoverished mostly send their children, hoping more for food and shelter rather than education.

But where do the country’s middle class send their children and what do they learn? It is usually assumed that if the madrassas were taken care of the problem would eventually be solved. This is not so. Only one-third of the children go to madrassas for education. The rest go to mainstream schools where the curriculum is fixed by the Curriculum Wing of the Ministry of Education. This wing formalises the national curriculum and thus has total monopoly. It functions rather like a Mind Control Brigade.

It is well known that Islamisation of schools began in real earnest during Zia-ul Haq’s time but rewriting of history began in 1971 with an Islamic fervour attached to it even then. Yvette Claire Rosser in her monograph Islamisation of Pakistani Social Studies Textbooks brought out by the Observer Research Foundation refers to what Pervez Hoodbhoy and A.H. Nayyar had said in their article ‘Rewriting the History of Pakistan’ way back in 1985. Referring to Zia’s efforts to Islamise education, they feared that “the full impact of which will probably be felt by the turn of the century, when the present generation of school children attains maturity.”

The Sustainable Development Policy Institute of Islamabad (SDP) had carried out a detailed study in 2002-2003 on what was being taught in Pakistan’s schools. They called their report The Subtle Subversion and their findings are alarming. Gen Musharraf had himself referred to this malaise in his August 14 2002 speech when he spoke of “misconceived views of Islam and fanatical acts of terrorism.” Apart from distortion of history, which is always a matter of debate, the more worrying aspect of the curriculum worked out by the Curriculum Wing is that right from kindergarten through to Class V children are taught to become life-sacrificing mujahids, and told simple stories eulogising jehad.

Linked to the Ideology of Pakistan Studies is an essential component of hate-hate against India and Hindus. Toddlers in Classes I to V, were as late as March 2002, being taught that ‘Hindu has always been the enemy of Islam’, ‘India’s evil designs against Pakistan’, ‘the religion of Hindus did not teach them good things’, ‘ignoble Hindu mentality’. The common theme throughout for students of all ages is jehad and shahadat. Space constraints prevent a fuller account but the scope of the study is vast and thorough and the examples cited are innumerable and frightening.
The SDPI report referring to the problems identified by Musharraf “have in large part been the result of children being educated into ways of thinking that makes them susceptible to a violent and exclusionary worldview open to sectarianism and religious intolerance.” As Dr. Rehman says “If Pakistan is to become a moderate country living in peace with its neighbours, its children cannot be brought up on hate material” (The News, April 1004).

The problem is not just the madrassas but of mainstream schools in Pakistan. Most of the graduates from the madrassas usually end up in the caves of Tora Bora or somewhere equally inhospitable. Those from the mainstream schools go to mainstream colleges and end up with main line jobs at home or in foreign lands. And if we assume that 3 million school children are added to Pakistan’s school going population every year there will be 60 million children who will have imbibed some of these teachings in another 20 years.

Thus we have a mixture of events, thought processes that have resulted in the present situation in Pakistan. The initial political infirmities, the feudal structures, the rise of the military led to a mutual reliance on each other and on religion and an educational structure that taught obscurantism and hatred all combined to make modern day Pakistan. Each misadventure with India was an opportunity for the fundamentalists to strengthen their hold because they diagnosed that the Armed Forces lost because Pakistan was not Islamic enough. The Arm’s excuse was that they too were not strong enough to take on the Indian Army and needed to be strengthened to defend the country. Each adversity strengthened the fundamentalists and the Army and they strengthened each other.

The Afghan jihad had provided the foot soldiers, the training ground and experience to the ISI along with weapons and funds. We mishandled Kashmir in 1989 and Pakistan got the opportunity it needed to settle old scores. The story has been repeated so often that it need not be recounted here. The ‘freedom struggle’ in the Valley morphed into a jihad led by the Pakistani military establishment in the Nineties. They were confident that this would succeed because the Chinese had allowed or helped them test the nuclear bomb in Lop Nor in 1990,the Clinton Administration was harassing India for human rights violations in Kashmir. The jihad in Kashmir just kept getting more vicious and the bond between the Pak Army and its surrogates, old and new kept getting stronger. The culture of jihad simply kept growing.
The Pakistani rulers gave Islamic names to their outfits equipped and trained to fight the Hindu infidel. Thus it was the Lashkar e Tayyaba, (Army of the Pure), Jaish e Mohammed, (Soldiers of Mohammed) Harkat ul Jihad e Islami, (Movement for Islamic Jihad) Harkat ul Mujahedeen (Movement of the Martyrs) ; the terrorists they trained were mujahids and fidayeen. All of this had strong Islamic symbols and association with Prophet Mohammed. Then they equipped them with A-47s and taught them how to use IEDs and rocket launchers. The symbolism and imagery was blood curdling and unfortunate. If there is any organisation in the world which has depicted Muslims as violent and Islam as a religion that encourages violence it has been the Pakistan Army.

As the Indian state did not wither away in the face of jihadi onslaughts, the jihadis and their mentors only became more vicious. By now a kind of Stockholm syndrome had set in with the handlers of the jihadis. There was genuine sympathy for their cause replacing the earlier tactical requirement to bleed the enemy without having to fight him. The jihadis had been a cheap easily dispensable option, there were no casualties to the Pakistan Army and the Indians were tied up in Kashmir. However, unknown to itself each year the Pakistani establishment kept getting deeper into the quagmire but remained oblivious or as usually happens remaining in denial and instead hopeful that victory was round the corner.

Till September 11, 2001 when Pakistan was asked to turn around and it found it was nearly impossible to do so. For some years Musharraf tried to fine tune his compliance to Washington but there were obvious limits to this. He could not launch into his western surrogates without angering them and his own Army; and he could not keep the confidence of the US until he co-operated fully. There was no getting away from having to fight the Taliban even while the jihadis on the eastern front were kept under wraps. The US would accept that. As the battle for Waziristan gathers momentum, ultimately the Pakistan Armed Forces may overwhelm the Taliban foot soldiers but the real danger to Pakistan today is the Talibanisation of the mind that has occurred over the years. The danger is not that the country’s nuclear assets will one day fall into the hands of the Taliban brigands. The danger is that the nuclear assets will one day be controlled by a Talibanised Army.

The Future

For nearly eight years now Pakistan has played a deft game at trying to pretend to help in the US led war on terror by pretending to help against Al Qaeda in short bursts, keeping the Taliban under wraps and doing absolutely nothing to control the jihadis facing India. It has nurtured the Taliban in FATA and there are some who still believe that that the present operation against the Taliban in FATA and NWFP is a carefully crafted charade. The myth of the moderate Taliban and the extremist Taliban has to be sold to the Americans and NATO anxious to find a way out of the mess before Bush’s war becomes Obama’s quagmire.

The reluctance of some Pakistani soldiers to engage the Pushtuns in battle should have worried the essentially Punjabi Army; the manner in which counterinsurgency campaigns have been launched in NWFP and FATA would only create more terrorists than it will eliminate. The Army may pretend it is being anvil to the US forces as it pushes the Taliban towards the Afghan border, but there are confirmed reports to show that many of the Taliban have slipped away to other parts of Pakistan. There have been no reported arrests or killing of any main leader of the Taliban. The only one killed so far has been Baitullah Mehsud’s government sponsored rival.

Pakistan is today acknowledged as the epicentre of terrorism globally. It is also in financial ruin. It is once again listed among the first ten states that are failing or will fail. Its Army is untutored in countering insurgencies. Pakistan’s internal terrorism has spread across the Indus into the Punjab and the two and half million internal refuges will aggravate the situation further. The Durand Line has ceased to be even more irrelevant as the Pushtun Taliban movement acquires nationalistic hues. The picture gets even murkier if one considers that apart from the Taliban, there are followers of Gulbuddin Hikmetyar, the Haqqani networks, the Uzbeks and Chechens still taking shelter and occasionally making forays into Afghanistan. As the US begins its so called surge, the next year or so will be important. Casualties will rise, so will the campaign by the terrorists.

As Selig Harrison a known authority on the south Asian region, very rightly observed in his article in the Boston Globe, (June 17, 2009) “The danger of an Islamist takeover of Pakistan is real. But it does not come from the Taliban guerrillas now battling the Pakistan Army in the Swat borderlands. It comes from a proliferating network of heavily armed Islamist militias in the Punjab heartland and major cities directed by Lashkar-e-Taiba, a close ally of Al Qaeda, which staged the terrorist attack last November in Mumbai, India.” Harrison goes on to say “Under a new name, Jawad-ud-Dawa, Lashkar-e-Taiba has continued to operate its militias, its FM radio station, and hundreds of seminaries where jihadis are trained, in addition to its legitimate charities and educational institutions. When the UN designated Jawat-ud-Dawa as a terrorist group, the Pakistan government issued another ban and Jawat-ud-Dawa changed its name to the Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation. The “foundation’’ now has 2,000 members doing relief work in war-torn Swat with the approval of the Pakistan government, amid credible reports that it is using its humanitarian cover to recruit new members as it did after the 2002 Kashmir earthquake. Lashkar-e-Taiba is on the Sunni side of the Sunni-Shia doctrinal divide in Islam and has its deepest roots in a 20,000-square-mile swath of southern Punjab between Jhang and Bahawalpur, where it champions the cause of landless Sunni peasants indentured to big Shia landowners.” Punjab is crucial to Pakistan. It has the largest concentration of jihadi organisations, the largest concentration of the country’s armed forces, who recruit from the same pond and all the country’s nuclear assets are in Punjab. For India this is of greater importance than any other factor.

Speaking about Pakistan, he says “Sunni extremist groups have been active in the Punjab since the creation of Pakistan and became the nucleus of Lashkar-e-Taiba when the ISI, with US funding, built up a jihadi movement to fight against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. Lashkar-e-Taiba and key allies such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi still get ISI support and have close ties with other intelligence agencies, but how much and how close remain uncertain.”

Bruce Riedel’s commentary (National Interest for the July August 2009 edition) is even more spine chilling. He says “The growing strength of the Taliban in Pakistan has raised the serious possibility of a jihadist takeover of that country. Even with the army’s reluctant efforts in areas like the Swat Valley and sporadic popular revulsion with Taliban violence, at heart the country is unstable. A jihadist victory is neither imminent nor inevitable but it is now a real possibility in the foreseeable future.” He ends his essay about what might happen, appropriately titled “Armageddon in Islamabad” with these words “Pakistan is a complex and combustible society undergoing a severe crisis. America helped create that crisis over a long period of time. If we don’t help Pakistan now, we may have to deal with a jihadist Pakistan later.” Riedel has advised four sitting US Presidents on Pakistan and was on President Obama’s review board for AfPAk. But the point is how do you help a country that refuses to help itself nor are there enough disincentives to coerce it to fall in line.


If the momentum swings the way of the Taliban/Al Qaeda and the casualties mount the Europeans and even the American public will seek to end this engagement. This is what the Al Qaeda and the Taliban are hoping will happen. Neither the US forces, NATO or the Pakistan Army has the ability to win, clear and hold territory. Unless this happens, there can be no confidence and no reconciliation. The insurgent does not have to win battles; he only has to survive. The Americans won their battles in Vietnam but in the end they had to leave by helicopters.

Despite all the dangers of the present policy, Pakistani establishment will find it extremely difficult to give up its jehadi option. Instead it may seek to diversify and expand through Nepal and Bangladesh. Hence also the need for Pakistan to take shelter with the US and China and function as the former’s surrogates in the region and the latter’s cat’s paw in India. Yet it might end up being what Field Marshall Ayub had once offered to the US -- the Pakistan army is your army. Lately, Pakistani military leaders worry that a secular economically successful and democratic India will raise questions in Pakistan. The fear is that the query will be Why Pakistan? instead of Why not Pakistan ?

Vikram Sood
June 29, 2009

Has since been published as a chapter in the recently published book - “India’s National Security-Annual Review 2009”

Saturday, February 13, 2010

INDIA-THE NEXT DECADE AND BEYOND

INDIA – THE NEXT DECADE AND BEYOND
Security and what might happen by 2025


The changing scene

As we enter the second decade of the 21st century, the abiding image of an India that is a chaotic soft state without a strategic culture persists but also that, somehow, miraculously and in its confused sort of way seeking to rise as a regional power. For decades, the leadership’s postures have mostly been defensive portrayed as being responsible in the face of grave provocation. The US, still a mighty power and likely to remain so for decades, is in relative decline in terms of influence and ability to have its way is a major change. The strategic stalemate in West Asia (Iraq) and Afghanistan and the economic meltdown are the recent examples of this. Along with this is the emergence of China as a major power that will assert itself increasingly in the next decade is something India’s policy makers will have to factor this in their calculations. Japan will simultaneously emerge as a ‘normal’ power and all three Asian powers will compete for the same resources, markets and influence. Russia is a major nation, still a global power with tremendous energy resources that are globally running short, a strong military machine and a well-developed science and technology sector. The EU is a massive global economic power with which India must learn to deal for economic advantage. One of the consequences of globalization will be the continued struggle and competition for resources, for precious mineral resources and other natural resources that will shape military policies of nations and choke points will be unstable.

Our own neighbourhood would remain more or less as it is today. Pakistan is unlikely to give up its obsession with India or its terrorist option despite the irreparable harm it will continue to do that country. Nepal’s experiment with democracy will remain tortuous and prolonged. Bangladesh’s current leadership is showing tremendous vision in having learnt the right lessons from Pakistan’s decline to obscurantism and would be in everybody’s interest -- if Bangladesh made this trend irreversible. Sri Lanka is recovering from a major insurgency that had threatened to divide the country. The next few years are going to be difficult as the country’s leaders now have to distribute the dividends of peace fairly among the Sinhala majority and the Tamil minority otherwise the insurgency will resurface.

In its external relations, India will have to deal with these, at times, conflicting interests.

There will be other problems along the way some global like climate change, terrorism, energy, some regional like water shortages, migrations, and some purely our own – our abysmal law and order, leading to insurgencies in many cases, health, education and infrastructure issues. Rapid economic growth will create socio-economic pressures arising from exploding expectations and demographic pressures on the urban areas.

The US misses its chances

The United States destined to remain as the world’s strongest military economic and technological power for decades to come had three opportunities to be the dominant ideological, idealistic power but missed all three. The first was at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, when instead of showing magnanimity towards the vanquished it went after the emerging Russia in the Nineties and frightened it into nationalistic reaction later. Soon after the attack on the Twin Towers and Washington, the US could have led a truly Global War on Terror instead it was neither a war on terror, nor was it global because it was only about securing America and American interests. Finally, in recent weeks and months, the US could have led the world by example but squandered this opportunity at the Copenhagen Climate Summit by not bringing enough to the negotiating table.

The previous century, although described by Eric Hobsbawm (The Age of Extremes) as a short century from 1914 to 1991 was also the most violent. During these 75 years, violence which was mostly state led, accounted for 187 million deaths during the two world wars, largely due to Hitler’s holocaust, Stalinist purges and Mao’s bizarre schemes that amounted to genocide. The killings of the 21st century are the mixed results of state and private violence and show little signs of abating as new threats are added to the list.

The fall of the USSR was not accompanied by US magnanimity but was instead replaced by hubris of the 1990s. US thus muffed its chances of being the ‘citie upon the hill’ …. And be the true leader of the world and try mould it in its own image. There was too much of finger wagging do as I say but not lead by example. It remained too obsessed with control and domination. Fired by a new zeal and imagination, American leaders began in the 1990s onwards to start nation building in the underbelly of the former Soviet Union the Balkans and ME/WA. This nation building was in reality state replicating or carving out US clones under the mistaken belief that the rest of the world wanted to be like the US but only didn’t know how. So it became American manifest destiny to do this. The idea of imposing freedom as we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan or even in Pakistan, subverts it.
As Niall Fergusson in his book ‘Colossus’, which is about the rise and fall of the American Empire, says that if the Victorians spread ‘civilisation’ through the Maxim gun there was something quite fishy about spreading democracy to Fellujah and Kandahar through the Abrams tank and the Predator. Even though the US is still the colossus that Thomas Jefferson predicted it would be in 1816, it is a diminished colossus despite its massive economy, military might, global military presence with its 731 bases. Powerful though the American empire was at the end of the second world war, it was never as powerful as the European empires had been half a century before that and it never quite understood the limitations of military power, despite Vietnam, Iraq once, Iraq twice and now in Afghanistan. Consequently, the US is suffering from the Tragedy of the Unmanaged Commons.

The Nineties were a period of arrogance in Iraq, West Asia, excessive and in your face militarism and that too as if all this was proclaimed to be for the good of the third world. The sudden surge in information and technology, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism generally and terrorism in Kashmir, occurred simultaneously. Nuclear delinquency by Pakistan was ignored in the west as someone else’s problem until it was too late.

It is agreed that the 21st century belongs to Asia and the World Bank has predicted that by 2025 India will contribute 13 % and China 26% of the global output. This will be equal to that of the US and EU. Add the rest of Asia and it will be comfortably more than 50%. China and India account for more than a third of the world’s population, have the highest rates of economic growth they will remain the biggest guzzlers of energy, will compete for resources and markets and there will be occasions of competition and even confrontation although conflict maybe avoided. An un-demarcated border between the two largest armies and nuclear nations does not make for comfortable relations and prevents the development of full relations.

The Decline of USA

The rich and ubiquitous CIA, through its National Intelligence Council, periodically collects some of the best brains in the US and after considerable debate they publish a detailed treatise predicting the future and the last one – Global Trends 2025 -- came out in November 2008. The report’s most important assessment is that in 15 years there will be a gradual decline in US preeminence along with the rise of new powerhouses, China and India. The report says “although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor,” the country’s “relative strength – even in the military realm – will decline and US leverage will become more constrained.”

In actual fact the decline has been far more rapid and has gone unnoticed because this was obscured by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. US predominance in the IT sector of the global economy also covered the country’s decline as a manufacturing hub. Several other moves/events in recent years point to this direction of a US decline.

At the Pittsburg global economic summit, the mantle of looking after the functioning of the economy passed on from G-8 to G-20, which includes China, India, Brazil, Turkey and other developing countries. It is not yet certain that this group can exercise any really effective control but the move is significant in that it took place. The true significance as Geoffrey Sachs put it, was not that the baton had passed to G-20 but that it had actually passed on from G-1, the US who had really called al the economic shots in the past 30-odd years of the G-7 forum.

There are increasing reports that major countries who are America’s economic rivals have been discussing among themselves, sometimes in secret, to explore a diminished role for the US $ in international trade where it is losing value. Saddam Hussein in 2002 tried to move away from the dollar to the Euro but that was more political than economic; the Iranians too have tried to establish oil bourses in Euros for the same reason. But this one is different. Major trading countries China, Japan, Russia, Brazil and the Persian Gulf states -- are considering the Euro or a basket of currencies, as an alternative. Obviously, if this is accepted this will adversely impact on American dominance in international economic matters. Link this to BRIC and we have a new international economic paradigm.

The international order has always been about control and dominance. The old Palmerston dictum about permanent interests and not permanent allies has changed. In the new international order there are permanent interests but no permanent enemies. Diplomatically and strategically, the US has had problems. US actions in West Asia for instance have given room for others to walk into the space provided by American misadventure in Iraq was as brainy as a World Wrestling Federation bout. Russia and China have refused in recent months to accept the US proposal that Iran be placed under sanctions, even though President Obama tried to assuage Russia by canceling plans to deploy an anti-ballistic missile system in Eastern Europe. The US can no longer press for sanctions in Iran while condoning similar action by Pakistan. In fact, Iran, China and Russia seem to have worked out an energy sharing /distribution map that largely excludes the US from this. These three countries have been the biggest gainers from America’s Quixotic adventures in Iraq which ended making Iran the strongest power in the region.

The US will lose ground in the economic sphere as well. US GDP in 2005 at US $ 12.4 trillion exceeded that of Latin America and Asia. By 2020, the combined GDP of Asia and Latin America will 40% greater than that of the US and growing. By then, the US will be deeply indebted to the more solvent nations. It will be dependent on them for funds needed to pay for budgetary deficits which have been there since the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, meting the annual Pentagon budget and so on. Nevertheless, the US will remain the world’s pre eminent economic and technology power but with a military power that is unable to undertake significant military missions abroad of the Iraq and Afghanistan kind on its own.

The stalemate in Afghanistan is really a srategic defeat for a superpower. A super power cannot be seen to have tried to find ways of getting out of a quagmire without a resounding victory. Support for the war is grudging both at home and abroad among allies. The US is in the unhappy situation where one of its prominent allies in the region – Pakistan -- has been duplicituous, another – Saudi Arabia – stands for creeds that are the very antithesis for all that America stands for and the third, China, is simply waiting for the US to get sufficiently unpopular before it will move into the vacuum that will unavoidably occur once the US leaves. The US could have had three friends and allies – Russia, Iran and India who do not want Afghanistan to become a Talibanised Wahhabi state. But the Americans chose otherwise. What the Americans were slow to understand was that whatever be the merits of the case, and in Afghanistan, defeat of terrorism was one, Washington can no longer say, “I am in Afghanistan to make America safe” and it does not matter if some Afghans die in the process.

Perhaps, the last setback may be symbolic but it is still powerful. The US could not win the race for the Summer Olympics for 2016; worse, it got eliminated in round one.

The Rise of China and Resurgence of Russia and Energy Security

In the years ahead, both China and Russia, in competition with each other or jointly in asymmetric opposition to the US, will seek geo-strategic space and vital strategic minerals in Central Asia and the Caspian region. China can be seen to be increasingly present in what has been Russia’s traditional heartland. Having resolved its territorial disputes with Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgystan, China has begun to assert itself. China also seeks a transport corridor for its exports all the way to Europe and the Persian Gulf. One route is the China-Pakistan-Karakoram Highway to be expanded further starting from the Pakistani port of Gwadar, with Kazakhstan added as another destination. At the same time, Russia and China have been moving closer to each other in the last two years as relations between the US and Russia began to sour. The border issue between China and Russia having been settled; there have been military exercises and increased Russian arms and energy sale commitments. (45% of Russian arms sales have been to China and at the rate of US $ 2 billion annually).

In the context of dwindling fossil fuel supplies and rising demands, he who controls not just the production but also the supply and has discovered substitutes, will rule the world. India, whose buoyant economy has a 70 % dependency on imported fossil fuels and weaponry for its security, is disadvantaged as it has neither the deep pockets of the Chinese and the Americans, the military power of the Russians and the Americans and nor the single mindedness of the Chinese or the Russians. The jostling for vantage positions to control energy resources in the years ahead is going to be ruthless and urgent. This will largely determine each country’s future in this century.

In the 1990s, the Russians had watched helplessly after they dismantled the Warsaw Pact only to find NATO extending its eastern frontiers and the energy giants moving in as Boris Yeltsin and his groupies sold off national assets on the cheap. This was till Vladimir Putin arrived on the scene to reclaim history and geography. Russia may no longer be a Super Power, militarily or economically but it is still the world’s second largest oil exporter and the largest outside OPEC. It remains a major player in the energy market outside total US control and has continued interests in Iran and the Gulf. Russia and China have been investing in military sales to the Middle East. A Russia that was supposed to have been finally defeated after the Afghan jehad and the fall of the Berlin Wall is resurgent. Forty-five per cent of Russian arms sales have been to China, at the rate of $ 2 billion annually and has along with China, been a protector of Iranian interests. Russia is thus back in international reckoning. Russian importance in the decade ahead will increase and India would need to pause and not go to the other camp on the rebound, as it were.

India’s Neighbourhood

Situation in India’s neighbourhood, emphasis on China, Pakistan and others.
Pakistan has become a delinquent nation as the epicentre of international jihadi terrorism. Sadly, this does not seem to bother its leadership, military and political, so long as they can pursue their pet obsession of trying to arm themselves against pet hate India and using jihadis to keep India at bay. Besides years of experience has shown that this is an effective way to extort funds from a gullible and pliable west. In the process, Pakistan has not realised what a scourge has been laid upon its hate.

Afghanistan has been at war since 1979 -30 years – it is now the longest running Third World’s War. Afghanistan’s misfortune has been its geographical location at the cross roads of empires in the past and the vital routes to globalization today. Super powers unable to learn the lessons of Vietnam have repeatedly and alternately, entered Afghanistan presuming that they would do better that the other. It did not work out that way and today it is not simply a case whether or not Taliban will take over. It is now near certain that they will as the US remains caught in a quagmire. It is just not the Kalashnikovs or the IEDs that threaten us today but the mindset that dooms the future of this region. With its abominable literacy rate for women of less than 5%, the fertility rate is 6.9 and the threatened take over by Taliban with their regressive attitude towards women will mean that country will continue to remain in the dark ages. It means the exponential growth of children brought up uneducated and un-emancipated who will provide more foot soldiers for the jihad.
There is no getting away from several aspects of this ardouos campaign. The US needs to have substantially increased troop deployment if it wants to subdue the Taliban. There is just no other alternative. Worse than no troops is an inadequate force which runs the risk of military defeat or overkill tactics. The present spin portraying the Taliban as a local territorial problem that does not threaten the US is patently shortsighted and leaves no one in doubt that the US is preparing to negotiate with the very force that it has been battling for eight years and which has now regained dominance in varying degrees over 70-80 % of Afghan territory. Negotiating with the Taliban at this juncture will be appeasement. Instead the US/NATO has to be prepared for the long haul. Any dithering now in Washington will only strengthen the hands of the fundamentalists in the Pak Army. The Afghans do not understand democracy the way the Americans do but to leave them now in the hands of the Taliban would mean leaving them in the hands of the Al Qaeda, under a strong Sunni Wahhabi Islam preached in Saudi Arabia and increasingly in Pakistan.
The American forces must not give the impression that they are fighting for themselves. This makes it America’s war and a war of occupation. Instead, foreign forces must fight for the Afghans and show it. This means spend more money on them instead of on the forces or the for-profit private military companies or the not-for-profit NGOs. It would be difficult for the ISAF/NATO to protect themselves without protecting the Afghan from the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Apart from sheer military force, in a country where 40% of the men are unemployed it is not enough to dole out money. They need jobs and the dignity that goes with it. It is not easy to eradicate opium production– which is a source of revenue for the Taliban and livelihood for the peasant- unless there are simultaneous provisions for an alternative source of income for the Afghan peasant.

The fear is that unable to go in for the long haul, the US may opt for a surge, a quick thrust, parry and withdraw after proclaiming victory. The US is realising, perhaps a bit too late, that Pakistan never intended to be the most suitable boy, who would let his benefactors down repeatedly. In tremendous difficulties in the Punjab, the Pakistan Army is unlikely to be willing to do anything substantial for the Americans, citing dangers from its traditional enemy. It is not that the Pakistan Army fears an assault by the Indian forces but for them to move troops away from its eastern borders would mean that the threat from India is minimal and this would undercut its very own primacy. Then there is China, waiting in the wings for the Americans to get sufficiently unpopular and then move in with its deep pockets. Pakistan would be comfortable with an increasing Chinese profile in Afghanistan but not with an Indian profile.

This is where India comes in. It must stay the course in Afghanistan and concentrate on the various infrastructure projects in the country – roads, dams, bridges, communications, schools, hospitals, power stations and transmission lines. Training of the Afghan Army and police, civil servants, education in various disciplines can be handled by the Indians. This would be far more economical and relevant to local conditions and requirements. Pakistan will respond in its own way. There will be more bombs and attacks on Indian interests in Afghanistan. Sending troops to Afghanistan is not an option.

We should be prepared to train Afghans in India, in whatever discipline and numbers they want this. We should offer additional infrastructure building, taking care to match this with the Afghan capacity to absorb. We need to ask Afghans what they want and not decide ourselves what we want to give. We need to co-ordinate with Iran, Russia and Central Asia in our endeavours. Post US, there has to be a regional agreement ensuring peace and neutrality in Afghanistan.

Pakistan will naturally assume that its moment has come again and it could now acquire its much dreamt strategic depth, throw the Indians out and be the overlord in Afghanistan. The Iranians are unlikely to remain idle spectators as a Sunni Wahabbi neighbour is going to be unsettling factor for them. The Chinese have already begun to move in with their commercial and resource interests into Afghanistan as they would see an opportunity to move closer to the Persian Gulf, given their steady relations with the Iranians. They also need to keep the Islamist extremists away from sensitive areas like Xinjiang. The Central Asian Republics and Russia have their concerns about the dangers of Talibanised ideology spreading into their countries. Finally, the absence of a strong centralised authority will only create more confusion in a country that has been run on drug money and foreign doles.

Pakistan’s exultation may be temporary. Unable to control its own territory it is unlikely to be able to run Afghanistan in the way it may want to. It does not have the resources to do so and the US will not sub lease Afghanistan to Pakistan this time. The other very real danger is that the Pushtuns on both sides of the Durand Line, joined together in a common fight for decades, may well ask if they fought all these years only to end up being minorities in both countries. The departure of the Coalition Forces will only add to the instability of the region and India needs to be prepare itself for this eventuality.

Pakistan’s own future looks uncertain and unless Pakistanis themselves resolve to change their priorities there will be no respite for them. The rulers of that country have not yet learnt how to live with a bigger, more powerful and successful neighbour; it has continued to confuse equal sovereignty with equal power. It must accept that Islamic extremism is no longer fashionable nor will it deliver results but has instead rebounded on the creators of this warped policy. The decline will become inexorable and faster toward the end of the decade as its internal problems mount while it continues to believe in punching above its weight, seeking equality with India.

There is a legitimate fear about the course Pakistan is taking, considering the internal strife there and the state of denial that pervades in that country. The course that Pakistan takes in the decade ahead is naturally dependent on the policies it chooses to discard and the ones it chooses to adhere to. Its present predicament of having to follow the US on the war on terror without jeopardizing its position on its assets facing India is increasingly untenable because it is duplicitous and rebounding on Pakistan. Should is choose to follow the path of encouraging jihad it is bound to be internally unstable. There is a real fear among some that Pakistan may eventually fall under its own weight. Several factors would have to be considered. The attitude of the neighbouring Islamic countries, notably Saudi Arabia, who consider Pakistan as the bastion of security with its nuclear capable armed forces will be important. The Chinese stand on this having invested so heavily and consistently for decades in a policy that made Pakistan the most important pillar for its policy in West Asia, the Arabian Sea and South Asia, is not likely to stand by idly as this country continues to sink. Thirdly, Russia and the Central Asian republics are fearful that a troubled Pakistan will not be able to control the spread of Islamic fundamentalism into their countries.

Pakistan’s future is also dependent on US policies in the region. It is difficult to predict if and when the US will change its decades old policy of pardoning Pakistan all its transgressions. What we need to take into account is that one of these days the US will carry out its much vaunted but ridiculously inadequate much delayed surge, declare mission accomplished and thin out. Its long-term policies are dictated by election year compulsions. Once the coalition forces begin to pull out there will inevitably be confusion and disruptions as other interests try to fill the empty spaces.

It is likely that the US will thin out in Afghanistan but it is unlikely that it will leave the region entirely. It would have to continue to stay so long as it has not a found a solution to the Iran issue and so long as the Al Qaeda threaten Yemen and later Saudi Arabia.

China making place for itself

Chinese leaders probably assess that US influence in Asia is on the decline and its moment has come. They have maintained their stand that there is place for only one nation in Asia.

From an initial pretence of disdain about India’s economic rise, the mood has switched to some irritation with India’s new relationship with the United States, which the Chinese today probably evaluate as being more strategic than just relating to a civil nuclear deal. In recent months since August 2009, there have been increased intrusions into India, accompanied by a marked sharpness in tenor. The decibel of references to Arunachal Pradesh is higher — protests about the Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang and belated protests about our Prime Minister’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh. There have been other worrying signs, notably the practice of issuing paper visas to residents of Jammu and Kashmir, thereby conveying that the state was disputed territory. All this underscores the reality that improved trade relations between neighbours do not necessarily mean improved political relations as long as there are undemarcated borders. Questions of demarcation have now been converted into territorial disputes, with the Chinese now repeatedly referring to Arunachal as "Southern Tibet".

There are international and domestic issues that may be worrying the Chinese. The Tibet disturbances of March 2008 and those in Xinjiang in July this year alarmed Beijing. The decline of Pakistan and the present situation in Afghanistan are both challenges and opportunities for the Chinese. Pakistan’s instability means that an important plank of Chinese policy in the region, to contain India and secure access to the Arabian Sea, has become unsteady and may have an uncertain future. Apart from that, a weakened but Islamised central authority in Islamabad could have repercussions among the restive Uighurs of Xinjiang. The China-Pakistan will strengthen in the next decade. It will continue to augment Pakistan’s military, including missile capability, just as it had almost certainly provided assistance in the upgrading of the Babur missile to a cruise missile.

America’s predicament in Afghanistan provides China an opportunity to raise its profile in Afghanistan/Iran and Central Asia. With a $3.5 billion investment in the Anyak copper project China is today the largest investor in Afghanistan. If China builds a railway line and a power plant this would treble its investment.
As India and China seek to progress there will be greater competition for resources, markets and influence. Cooperation will remain an ideal and both would want to avoid confrontation, or worse, conflict. In terms of military spending, India does not have the capability or even the intention to match China weapon for weapon, force for force. It is extrapolated that by 2050 China will be spending $775 billion on defence — three times India’s defence budget despite our huge land and sea boundaries.

As Michael Klare says in his recent article ‘The Blowback Effect 2020’ - “If China is an economic giant today, it will be a powerhouse in 2020 …[its] GDP will jump from an estimated US $ 3.3 trillion in 20910 to US $ 7.1 trillion in 2020, at which time its economy will exceed all others save that of the US…. As the decade proceeds, China is expected to move steadily up the ladder of technological enhancement, producing ever more sophisticated products, including advanced green energy and transportation systems that will prove essential to future post-carbon economies.”

China will use its growing wealth and technological prowess to enhance its military power, says Klare. Even though at an estimated US $ 85 billion on defence expenditure in 2008 pales into insignificance compared to the US expenditure of US $ 607 billion and its technology as well as weaponry unsophisticated, this will rapidly change in the next decade.

So how will China behave in the years ahead. It has preferred to speak of a harmonious rise, used the power of the $, development aid, quiet but vigorous diplomacy to pursue its national interests. But one can see early signs of a willingness to outstare the opposition. The Chinese has restricted US President Barack Obama’s access to media during his visit to Beijing last year, yielded no ground on Tibet or agree to sanctions on Iran. Later in December it sent a low ranking official to the Copenhagen summit at a crucial stage of the negotiations to extract concessions from the others on carbon emissions.

Quite often, many ask if India will ever catch up with China. The figures of military spending, the size of the economies, the rate of growth, the amount of money spent by each country on infrastructure, electricity production, agricultural produce, research and development and reserves held, confirm that the gap is enormous. Even though Goldman Sachs predicts that China, the US and India will be the three largest global economies by 2050, it would be more realistic for India to aspire to be a global player whose voice will be heard rather than attaining the status of a superpower. The question we need to ask is can China afford to catch up with India’s raucous democracy and still survive?

China has endeavoured to restrict India’s influence to its borders. Only recently, it reminded our neighbours that India had hegemonistic tendencies while extending its "peaceful" relationship with them, while claiming "harmonious rise" in a wary neighbourhood. The prime example of this is the manner in which China has godfathered Pakistan’s India-specific nuclear and missile capabilities. China is our powerful neighbour and India and China are not in the same league. Pakistan refused to accept this reality in its relations with India and today finds itself adrift despite valiant US efforts to shore up its ally. It is best to accept the India-China reality and fashion our responses accordingly.

China’s current phase of aggressive action and moves has been making and maybe even signs of premature hubris but India cannot leave it to chance. Having been anointed by Z Brzezinski as a member of the G-2, China seems to have taken this role seriously. The Chinese have suggested to the Americans that they could divide the pacific into two spheres of influence, that the Indian Ocean was China’s zone of influence. With its interest in the Pakistani port of Gwadar undiminished, it has shown considerable interest in Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea islands. China no longer exports ideology and dogma but uses its deep pockets to extend influence. Pakistan has been the Eastern theatre of a Great Game that has been played by bigger powers in recent decades for control of energy resources, access to the sea or to Central Asia and watching the Indian Ocean and South Asia.

China has made inroads into areas where US interests have been adversely affected in recent years – Iran, Iraq, Central Asian republics like Kazakhstan as more and more energy flows eastward into China, and Afghanistan. The seas from the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Oman to the Malacca Straits through to the South China Sea provide vital energy sea lanes for China, India and Japan. This will be even more vital in the years ahead. In this context Chinese growing interest in Sri Lanka and Hambantota should not be merely considered as moves for economic interests. These are moves designed to secure long-term strategic interests and form part of a link that extends from the Gulf of Oman to the Malacca Straits in the Indian Ocean Region. China will thus continue to strengthen its presence in the South Asian and Indian Ocean region in the decade ahead. The recent interest the US has taken in showing renewed interest in Myanmar is an indication that the US has begun to realise the growing influence of China in the region. Nevertheless, China would endeavour to become the paramount naval power in the Indian Ocean in the years ahead, though this may not happen in the next ten years.

The growth of the Chinese Navy is something Indian strategists would be watching in the next few years. Today there estimated to be 1000 Chinese commercial vessels and oil tankers that have to sail through troubles d waters and China imports 60% of its oil by sea. Simultaneously, China seeks to establish land routes through Gwadar and Myanmar and from Central Asia. Chinese defence expenditure will continue to rise (it has been estimated to be growing at 16.2% since 1999) and was US $ 70 billion in 2009 according to the PLA budget. US published estimates of the Chinese defence expenditure place the figure at US $ 150 billion, compared to the Indian expenditure of US $ 40 billion. The gap will widen in the years ahead.

Searching for greater strength and in a hurry to do so, there are reports of the Chinese resorting to cyber war against other countries. Sensitive Indian institutes have not been spared from this and this will continue into the future.
We simply have to evolve a method of peaceful cohabitation; there is nothing to be gained by jingoism and everything to be lost by seeming to be weak and succumbing to pressure. It is quite likely that the Chinese leadership will glower at us from across the Himalayas; should that happen we should not blink.

Thus, we need to be able to protect our interests more effectively, at and inside our borders, in our neighbourhood, the seas that surround us and in Asia. Therefore, massive infrastructure development is required in the Northeast which is people-friendly and not simply meant to cater to our strategic requirements. There has to be two-way socio-cultural assimilation of the region with the rest of India. Instead of buying loss-making companies abroad, we should be adopting regions for development. It is in our interest to develop friendlier relationships with countries on China’s periphery and strengthening relationships with the US and Japan is part of this policy.

The armed forces — all three wings — need upgrading, with long-range strike aircraft as well. This interminable discussions and negotiations where we are unable to get jet trainer aircraft in less than 15 years or the seemingly inconclusive negotiations on the Gorchkov, do not help our defence preparedness. Ultimately, we need to become self-reliant in defence production with indegeneous private sector but present indications give little satisfaction. Until we achieve this in a significant manner for the big-ticket items our claim to being a major power are going to be hollow.

Dealing with the US

Dealing with the US would be India’s greatest challenge and opportunity in the next decade and more. Today there is considerable euphoria in India and in the strategic community in the US about the future of India-US relationship. We are lauded, and we lap this up as the ultimate sign of acceptability when there is reference to common values, common democratic ideals and common interests. There are limits to this and we should accept them before disillusionment takes over. There are, what the Americans think, three issues of possible discord. These are trade relations, WTO and so on, climate change and Iran. The US does not consider that its approach to China and Pakistan causes concern in India. This is not likely to change in the times ahead and India’s concerns will only increase because US ambivalence towards Pakistan will remain unchanged.

Recent US pronouncements that India and the US could work together for global peace, can be more than just a little bit overwhelming considering that the strategic interest of the two countries match only at a very low level. Time and again the US has shown an extra-ordinary insensitivity to Indian concerns in the region, especially when these relate to Pakistan. This is not likely to change substantially in the next few years ahead. We will have to fight our war on terror largely on our own

The US currently has one major interest in the region which is how to honourably exit Afghanistan without this appearing to be a defeat. On the other hand, Pakistan has succeeded in convincing the US that they need to keep India out of any reckoning in Afghanistan if the problem has to be solved and that Pakistan would need additional satisfaction on the Kashmir issue for it to fully co-operate on the Afghan front. Ideally the US will seek to retain its influence in Pakistan while extending its influence in India without this becoming a zero-sum game. Pakistan is needed for its geo-strategic location and because it is the epicentre of terrorism although the US has begun to accept this rather reluctantly. The fear that Pakistani nuclear weapons may fall in the hands of extremists is perhaps not as real as the fear that extremists within the Pakistan Army may one day think it prudent and desirable to hand them over to the terrorists. Since the main current aim of US presence is to make US safe from nuclear attacks or other terrorist attacks, all activity is geared towards that. Everything else is subservient.

The paradox is while the US fears this outcome, it strengthens the Pak Army, the very force that can cause US interests the maximum damage when the Pak military resorts to action through Islamist terrorist organizations that it has nurtured all these years.

US interest in India is the huge market and investment potential – a perfectly legitimate national interest and sees India as a possible counter to China, also another perfectly acceptable geo-strategic interest of a major power. Yet it continues to strengthen its own political and economic relations with China. India simply has to ensure that it must not let its own strategic interests be guided by another nation’s interests.

Power of science and technology – Singularity is near

We have all spoken and read about the exponential transformation in technology in the past two decades. From the first text message which was sent in Britain in 1992 and ten years later 100 billion SMS messages were being exchanged every month and today 4.1 billion messages are sent daily -- is just a common day example. Not only is this the manner in which technology is changing; today we talk of gigabytes and terabytes. But another improvement is on its way – petabytes. When this happens, then it would be possible to store the entire Library of Congress -- the world’s largest with 120 million books/journals stored on 850 kilometres of shelves with 10,000 books added daily, and these could be stored in just 0.02 petabytes. In March 2007, the CIA began working on a digital library of national intelligence information that would be have everything from raw data to analytical information which was expected to be bigger that the Library of Congress.

Two years ago the size of the Web was such that Google could search 60 billion pages in a second or less. But there is a Deep Web, that cannot be accessed and it is estimated to be 50 times larger. There is so much information overload that the 16 US intelligence agencies employ 45000 analysts. Of course in India, we don’t have that kind of global threat perceptions or requirements or even the funds but need some scaled down model. There are 1.6 billion people on line today, up from 1 billion two years ago. 60 % of the world’s population of 6.6 billion today uses cell phones up from 12% in 2000. Islamist groups are known to use mini-cameras to post their propaganda films on YouTube. Steganography is commonly used to embed secret messages on the net.

Given the growth of technology, scientists like Ray Kurzweill had predicted in his first book The Age of Intelligent Machines that in the first half of the 21st century machine intelligence would become undistinguishable from its human creators. Few have thought about the implications of this merger between our biological thinking and the one we are creating. It is the destiny of this human machine civilization which Kurzweill describes as the Singularity in his latest book The Singularity is Near.

Kurzweill’s thesis underlying the impending Singularity is that the pace of change of our human created technology is accelerating and its powers are expanding at an exponential rate. At today’s rate of progress, we will see doubling of progress every ten years which will be equivalent of a century’s progress. What this means is that human beings, or some human beings at any rate, will have the hardware to emulate human intelligence with supercomputers by the end of 2010. And there will be personal computer sized devices with effective software models of human intelligence by about 2020.

With both hardware and software ready to emulate human intelligence, computers will be able to pass the Turing test by 2025, which means that artificial intelligence would be undistinguishable from human intelligence by the end of 2020s. When this happens, computers will be able to combine the traditional strengths of human intelligence with that of machine intelligence. Given that there are no limits to human creativity, to the power of ideas and also to human depravity, the use of this power will have wide consequences for mankind. And as Winston Churchill said “The empires of the future will be the empires of the mind.”

Science and medicine would of course benefit from these advances reversing the process of aging or enhancing the human brain are some of them. Doubtless these advances will have applications in defence and warfare as well. Smarter weapons that “think” designed as precise missions to maximize damage and minimise own casualties, is the trend. The present day state of the art Predator-armed UAV could become rapidly out of date with this new minitiarised technology where the future UAV would be the size of a bird and much more lethal. Pentagon’s research has been towards Future Combat Systems which will be smaller, lighter faster more lethal and smarter. The US Army, for instance, plans Brigade Combat Teams of 2500 soldiers, unmanned robotic systems and FCS equipment. The Pentagon researchers are also working on a battalion of 120 military robots fitted with swarm intelligence software to enable it to mimic the organized behavior of insects. They are even developing Smart Dust which are devices smaller than birds and bumble bees not bigger than a pinhead. Once developed and deployed, swarms of millions of these could be dropped in enemy zone to provide detailed surveillance intelligence and also support offensive military operations. There would be nanoweapons rendering present weapons as unwieldy and out of date and smart weapons replacing the present dumb missiles The US Joint Forces Command’s Project Alpha plans for a largely robotic force by 2025. This would mean far less incidence of human loss for forces and therefore make intervention and occupation far more possible and tempting.

Energy and The Great Game In Our Neighbourhood

In today’s terminology, he who controls the energy belt in West Asia and the Caspian region controls the world. The Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea region -- Eurasia – remains the most vital region today for powers seeking dominance or economic growth or both.

It is necessary to recapitulate a few facts to capture the importance of the region. The US imports about 30% of its requirements from the region, 40% of the world’s energy requirements pass through the Persian Gulf, and in the years to come India will need to import 90% of its requirements.

Under the previous order of world affairs, private multinational oil companies controlled a large percentage of the resources of energy and their development.

Oil is no longer just traded on the spot market in New York or London, but countries like China and India with their rapidly growing economies will continue to buy assets in the country of origin in long term bilateral or trilateral arrangements.
An important game is being played in our neighbourhood. Pakistan has renamed the Northern Areas of Jammu and Kashmir as Gilgit-Baltistan as a move to integrate the region with the rest of Pakistan. China too would be interested that Pakistan keeps total control over Gilgit and Baltistan. Otherwise the 298-million dollar investment in the development of Gwadar is a financial or strategic waste. Xinjiang is only 2500 kms away from the Arabian seaport of Gwadar. On the other hand, it is 4500 kms away from the Chinese east coast. A fully developed port at Gwadar would help in the economic development of Xinjiang. Gas and oil pipelines from Gwadar to Xinjiang and Tibet would enable China to overcome the uncertainty of sea-lanes from the Persian Gulf through the Malacca Straits patrolled by the US.

The Chinese will be building the Gwadar Dalbandin rail network into Xinjiang as an extension of the development of Gwadar port which will have an exclusive SEZ for the Chinese. China has set aside US $ 150 million to upgrade the Karakorum Highway and widen it from 10 metres to 30 metres for heavy vehicles in all weather conditions. A rail link is also planned in the region with technical advice from an Austrian firm to connect Pakistan and China. This link will be connected further south into the main Pakistani rail grid. Fibre optic cables are being laid. An Islamabad-Kashgar bus service has been planned. All these will become active in the decade ahead.
Both China and Pakistan are getting ready for an economic boom that will include transit trade to Central Asia. The Pakistan Army’s National Logistics Cell, which has a near monopoly, will handle this freight traffic all the way up to Kazakhstan and Xinjiang. There is money to be made. Thus development of both Gwadar and control of Gilgit and Baltistan are interlinked and the Pak Army will gain financially from both. In fact, it is going to be a financial bonanza for the already huge corporate interests of the Pak Army. It is therefore quite likely that the region will continue to see Pakistan Army as the dominant factor in Pakistan. Kashmir and India will be the overt reason for this dominance.

The Chinese are also going to construct 12 new highways into Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan as part of their plans to extend eastwards along the old Silk Route into Europe and access to warm waters. The longest one will stretch 1,680 kilometers from Urumqi, capital of the autonomous region, to Tashkent, capital of Uzbekistan, Iran’s Mashhad, Turkey’s Istanbul and finally reach Europe. The road was to be completed before 2010.

Food security

There is grim news here. It is highly unlikely, given the situation as it exists today, that the globe can sustain a population of 10 billion if all of us continue to devour resources the way we are doing today in richer societies or even at half that rate, and where a vast majority is not even above the poverty level. The word will meet at Copenhagen soon but I doubt if there will be any salvation from the dangers that that are already upon us. Mankind has not yet learnt to give up profligacy in almost any aspect. Take food consumption in the west, for instance.
Tristram Stuart, author of a new book on food waste calculated that the hunger of 1.5bn people could be alleviated by eradicating the food wasted by British consumers and American retailers, food services and householders, including the arable crops such as wheat, maize and soy to produce the wasted meat and dairy products. The production of wasted food also squanders resources because the irrigation water used to grow food that was eventually wasted would have been enough for equivalent domestic water needs of 9bn people.

Water wars

Environmentalists and scientists believe that the biggest potential destabilisers in the world are water scarcity and global warming. Boutros Boutros-Ghali had warned in the Eighties that future wars could be fought over water. His successor Kofi Annan was also worried about fierce national competition over water resources that contained the seeds of violent conflict. Ismael Serageldin, vice-president, World Bank, had predicted in 1995 that “if wars of this century were fought over oil, the wars of the next century will be fought over water”.

In China, the lower estuaries of the Yellow River are now dry two-thirds of the year, the water table is falling by 1.5 metres a year and a third of Beijing’s wells have dried up. China wants to construct two more dams equal to the size of the massive Three Gorges Project on the Yangtse. China is also planning a series of giant dams across the Mekong, the Salween and Brahmaputra rivers whose waters are vital to all the downstream countries.

By 2025, all of West Asia, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Singapore and South Africa and parts of India and China will face absolute water scarcity — defined as less than 1,000 cubic metres of water per person per year. These countries would not be able to meet their needs for irrigated agriculture, or for domestic, industrial and environmental purposes. Water will have to be transferred out of agriculture to other needs, making these countries increasingly dependent on imported food.

If there is no water, then there is no food either. The ecological cycle having been broken we could get into an endless cycle of droughts, famines, floods and cyclones. The poorer countries will be left with no alternative but to import not only food but also water and oil. The pity is that this could happen to those who are self-sufficient in food today and with better water management even ward off the perils of 2025. But the possibility that the same transnational company could be controlling supply of oil, water and food only means the return of the East India Company in another incarnation.

Potential conflicts are likely where rivers and lakes are shared by more than one country. The Nile, the Jordan, the Indus, the Ganga, the Brahmaputra and the Mekong are some of these. In times of water stress and shortages, regions will face water refugees from one region to the other within the country or between two countries.
There could be wars for the control of water supplies; or water resources or systems used as a weapon during a military conflict; or used for a political goal; terrorists could threaten using water sources as a weapon of coercion. Water systems themselves could be targets of military action. Then, with multinational giants having entered the business of supplying water privately, for profit, there could be wars for entrepreneurial control. Inequitable pricing and monopolistic practices have already caused distress in Latin America and South Africa. The most dangerous is naturally the one fought with weapons.

Pakistanis fear that India, as the upper riparian, could one day choke off the Indus waters with disastrous consequences to Pakistani Punjab. Kashmir is thus a matter of life and death. Should the rivers that flow into Pakistan begin to lose their flow because of natural reasons, the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan will come under stress.

Sindhi nationalists in Pakistan have accused the Punjabi-dominated establishment of signing away Sindh’s needs by accepting the Indus Waters Treaty which ignored their needs from the waters of the Sutlej, Ravi and Beas — whose waters flows to Sindh. They also accuse Punjab of diverting more than its share of the Indus waters and regard plans to construct the Kalabagh Dam upstream as another way of depriving Sindh of water. The distributaries of the Indus Delta are dying and the salt water from the sea is creeping up to destroy the mangroves of Sindh.

If better water management and all that goes with it is not put in place quickly enough, it is possible that one day reservoirs like the Nagarjuna Sagar or the Nangal or the Mangla Dam could run dry. It is difficult to imagine a situation where the mighty rivers of South Asia become rivulets unable to reach the sea. As the taps run dry and the crops wither away, there would be upheavals — mixed as they would be with regional, caste, sectarian and communal colour. All this may be difficult to imagine, but this is a calamity waiting to happen. It is a nightmare about to come true.

The future of this planet will be determined by the decisions mankind takes now and how it implements them in the next few years. If there is no change in our pattern of consumption and wastage and pollution, if there is no effort to change our way of life, then that day is not far off when this planet will become a dustbowl. Only sustained early action can prevent this country from becoming a 21st century Mohenjo Daro. India must not wait for the rest of the world. A beginning has to be made here and now; we must learn to worship and conserve water like our ancestors did.

Climate change and security

Those countries well endowed with precious gifts from nature react differently to this impending disaster of climate change. Copenhagen 2009 was an example of differences having been papered over but the essential problems remain. This is that the rich are not willing to give up and the poor insist on a debt repayment whereas they should be looking for ways out instead of trying to repeat the same mistakes that the rich made. Continued and uncertain climate change has security implications and these will be more for the undeveloped and developing nations than for the developed.

It is not the laws and the technical discussions by very knowledgeable legal minds alone that will solve the earth’s problems. It is how we behave and how we regulate ourselves that will determine our future. While global leaders will meet periodically in high profile jamborees, to make grand sophisticated arguments to impress domestic audiences and interests, in countries like India the problem is also of a different nature. In a country where the education levels and the sense of social responsibility are abysmal, where laws are violated with impunity in urban areas, it is going to a massive task to teach the average person his social responsibilities not to add to environmental pollution and global warming. We must dramatically raise the general public’s awareness about the effects of current levels of consumerism, waste management, water preservation will have on our lives. A nationwide campaign of the kind that is already underway in Europe must begin now. There is not much time left and a decade from now would be too late.

The US based Centre for Naval Analysis, an independent think tank close to the US Navy, stresses that climate change will have massive effects across the world, especially in the poorer regions. In its report two years ago it said that “Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world. Projected climate changes will seriously exacerbate already marginal living standards in many Asian and African, and Middle Eastern nations, causing widespread political instability and the likelihood of failed states.”
This has a potential to threaten security from a US perspective and from an Indian perspective because we are surrounded by failing or failed states. The report adds: “Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism and movement towards increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies.” The impending threat is described as being greater than the confrontation between the NATO and Warsaw Pact nations during the Cold War because if there is no response soon enough, the instability will get endemic and unpredictable.

There are questions for the future –how will the earth’s resources support a population of 8.5 billion by 2025, what kind of systems will we have when money will cross borders in the flash of a milli second, what will happen to job security then, and what will be new conflicts that states that will arise from growing disparities and exploding expectations, demographic changes from growing economic disparities, uneven development and the consequences of climate changes.

Global Terror

Terrorism is now truly global and as multinational as Microsoft. The US and Al Qaeda are the two that have global reach today. But terrorism is unremittingly lethal and it is cheap. (The ingredients for sirin gas which, when used properly with a spray, could kill anywhere between a few hundred and a few thousand, cost only $ 150.) The irony is that the American state spends multi-million dollars in developing state of the art drones, armed with advanced weaponry, can now be hacked into by insurgents with a US $ 26 off the shelf Russian software which highlights the disparity between costs to insurgents and counter insurgents.

There are many players in the field today — the fanatics, the criminals, the drug-traffickers, the human traffickers. The masterminds are not the archetypal villains epitomised by Bollywood, but could be the boy or girl next door in the suburbs of Atlanta or Marseilles or an alumnus from Binori mosque in Karachi. For us in India we have learnt to live with it, having been victims of this for the last three decades and more. It is a problem that will not go away easily, soon or completely.
Future wars are unlikely to engage massive armies locked in prolonged battle for real estate. Attacks could now come by stealth, master-minded by some computer whiz kid along with some science graduate, and the targets are our ways of life. The terrorist of the day wishes to use 21st century tools to push us all back to the 7th century. It is a highly unconventional war that the State hopes to fight only with conventional weapons or tactics. Unless the State learns to be flexible and agile and unless there is full scope cooperation internationally, it will always be an uphill struggle with the peak never really visible.

It is the use of modern technology by the terrorist that has led the counter terrorist to evolve expensive, all pervasive surveillance and counter terrorist techniques in ways that leave the espionage and counter espionage activities of the Cold War years far behind. In the west, especially in the US there has been an upsurge in intelligence activity as the US battles to secure itself in the new global war. Faced with an information overload where every email, every telephone call, every sms, every fax is subject to surveillance apart from the literature floating on the web, intelligence activity has been outsourced in a major fashion. From just being an military-industrial complex it is now an intelligence-industry complex where major players like Lockheed Martin, Booz Allen and Hamilton, CACI International, SAIC and IBM are now active associates of the CIA, NSA and the Pentagon in intelligence activities at home and abroad. Blackwater and Dyncorp as well as others provide the muscle power. Their charter includes covert operations and interrogations of suspects. Privatisation of espionage and authorised privatisation of violence will change societies in ways that will realise only later when the power of these groups may exceed those of the state, especially in weaker or smaller states.

Pakistan is not expected to give up this weapon of state sponsored terrorism as a force equaliser against the stronger India. This can happen only if the price of terrorism is more than what the Pakistan can afford to pay and Pakistan overcomes its fear psychosis about India. In the decade ahead we should not expect any appreciable change in the level of terrorism. In fact we should be prepared for new kinds of terrorism. Despite having become a victim of its own terrorism, Pakistan is unlikely to be able to reverse this without further trauma.

China will remain overtly polite but will also become more aggressive in the time ahead. It probably assesses that its moment has come and should position itself in its periphery to ease the US out. There could be co-operation between China and India on issues like climate change, competition between the two, for resources and markets, and confrontation at times on border issues, Dalai Lama and Tibet and China will continue to support Pakistan in every possible manner.

Diplomacy would need to be more nimble-footed and proactive rather than reactive. We have to look ahead and work accordingly. Short-term "band aid" solutions will not do. Yet diplomacy alone will not do because it is only one extension of pursuit of national interests. A country is respected for its military prowess and economic power accompanied by a willingness to assert its interests. We must therefore modernise both our military and economic prowess. Further, it will have to be at a much faster rate and far more focused as well as indegenised than it is currently. Diplomacy merely reflects this interest and prowess. The other way to exert influence is through ‘soft power’ - economic engagement and building favourable perceptions through creatively guided and co-opted media that better understand and accept the national imperatives. India does not have anything similar to CNN, BBC, Reuters or AFP. Our major newspapers do not even have correspondents resident in our neighbouring countries. A sharper well endowed intelligence service that reacts in advance to the anticipated changes and is not merely reactive to developments, is the first weapon of any state that has aspirations beyond its frontiers. Not enough attention has been paid to this important aspect in recent years. The concept of security has changed in recent years to make this an all inclusive definition which requires new skills and techniques. On the ground sound governance – that includes law and order, which is really a fundamental right of any citizen, justice seen to be delivered, education and health, all provide for internal strength.

Until then it would be good to follow Sun Tzu’s advice: "The side that knows when to fight and when not will take the victory. There are roadways not to be travelled, walled cities not to be assaulted".

Vikram Sood
Appeared in the February issue of Eternal India, New Delhi