Afghan unravelling ?

After nine years in Afghanistan — its longest war — the United States seems to be caught in a quagmire with the Taliban, backed by US ally Pakistan, on the ascendant. Thousands of Afghans have died along with nearly 2,000 ISAF troops, and $300 billion spent on a war that has chronically been under-resourced and self-delusionary. Today, the campaign looks increasingly an exclusive American enterprise, with Canada and the Netherlands deciding to walk out; the German President had to resign over differences and the French also reluctant to continue with this never-ending war. The US commander had to quit amid stories of dissonance among major US policymakers. The British envoy, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, is on long leave, and Britain’s CDS is to demit office prematurely. The Canadians have just revealed they had unearthed a conspiracy to destroy the Canadian Parliament by a group of 18 home-grown Muslim terrorists angry with the country’s Afghan war involvement.

Afghanistan remains lawless with several governments acting on their own, an ineffective police force and an inept national army that won’t be ready to take on full functions for several years. Many of America’s quixotic adventures were on the advice of Pakistan’s rulers, who led them to believe they could capitalise on the differences between the “good” and “bad” Taliban. Attempts at regime change, by demonising President Hamid Karzai without taking the elementary precaution of identifying a successor, were an incredibly naïve pursuit that created irreconcilable differences between master and ally. Once intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh, who opposed negotiations with the insurgents, was eased out, Mr Karzai could buy local insurance and pursue the policy of chatting up Siraj Haqqani under close Pakistani supervision.

Late in the day, perhaps, US and other Western think tanks and media have begun to acknowledge the source and gravity of the problem. The latest and most comprehensive was the Rand Corporation paper by Christine Fair and Seth Jones, which highlights the terrorist threat not only to the region and the world but to Pakistan itself. While suggesting that Pakistan abandon its policy of using terror as a foreign policy weapon, the authors also asked the US to revisit its own policy of too many carrots and too few sticks. The LSE report authored by Matt Waldman on the Pakistan government’s official policy of supporting, through the ISI, Afghan insurgents (Taliban and the Haqqani network) only embellishes what has been stated here in India for years, known in the West but rarely openly acknowledged. Further, the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba’s growing profile in Afghanistan means Pakistan seeks to use this trusted jihadi organisation as insurance in case the Taliban turn rogue. It is an unfortunate measure of Pakistani leaders’ all-consuming hostility towards India that they would rather cohabit with a retrograde organisation like the Taliban instead of seeking a compromise with India.

The sudden publication of what is really old news about the trillion-dollar mineral reserves in Afghanistan is a new factor. Will the global war on terror, once described as unwinnable by President Barack Obama, now become a winnable war for resources? These are all heavy-investment and long-gestation projects that only the rich and powerful can manage. But there is no magic wand for instant riches and stability for Afghanistan’s poor. The fear is that Afghanistan, as the land bridge between Central Asia and the rest of Asia, will go further downhill amid increased violence among its various ethnic groups. A significant number of these forces would be provided by jihadi foot soldiers from Pakistan.

These reports, about the Pakistan Army’s control over the Taliban, the presence of its surrogates in Afghanistan along with reports of exploitable vital minerals in that country and the slowing down of the Kandahar and North Waziristan operations, could suggest there is a deal on the anvil. The West withdraws its fighting forces substantially, outsources security of its projects to private military contractors while exploiting minerals. Pakistan will have attained strategic depth and security through the Taliban and Haqqani networks.

It is sometimes forgotten that in the ultimate analysis, the Taliban are Pashtun who live on both sides of the Durand Line, and there has been an upsurge in anti-Pashtun violence in Balochistan, Karachi and Fata. It might not be long before there is an upsurge of the demand for a Greater Pushtunistan once the foreigner (and common enemy) has departed, and Pashtuns internalise their problems swept under the carpet by successive regimes. Pashtun assertiveness will almost certainly lead to retaliation from Afghanistan’s other ethnic groups. Religious obscurantism combined with ultra-nationalism can be a very explosive mix.

The future looks uncertain and violent unless there is an all-nations guarantee for Afghan neutrality and non-interference by other powers. It is a fair assumption that Mr Karzai’s Afghanistan is unravelling fast and no one really has any idea how to prevent this. The Saudi-Wahhabi and the Pakistan-military nexus, the latter’s nexus with Afghan drug lords, worth billions of dollars, appears to be picking up the pieces in a divided country.

The cure, if any, lies in Pakistan — where all Afghan-specific and India-specific insurgent/terrorist groups take shelter, receive support and now coalesce for Pakistan’s foreign policy objectives. So far India been comfortable with its infrastructure assistance to Afghans, while others battled for bigger stakes. This situation will change, with Pakistan remaining hostile despite the recent veneer of bonhomie.

China, with ambitions to reach the Persian Gulf, is the rising power seeking space and resource bases for itself, with Pakistan as its staunch ally. India needs to strengthen its relations with Iran and Russia, who would be similarly affected by the rise of Taliban, for access to Central Asia and West Asia. Despite the odds against us, India’s profile in Afghanistan must not be lowered. If Kashmir is an all-time issue for Pakistan, so should Gilgit and Baltistan — a geo-strategic jugular for both Pakistan and China — be for India. It would be sound policy to modernise our defence forces in all aspects, especially maritime. The region will eventually normalise only when the Pakistan Army, whose policies have hurt the Pakistani people immeasurably, normalises like other armies.

Source : Asian Age , 29th June 2010 ,Former head of R&AW

Can we say,Never agian?

The Government has failed to protect India’s national interests while dealing with the ghastly Union Carbide disaster of 1984. It did precious little to ensure that the victims got the relief they needed and deserved. Bhopal is both a national failure and a national tragedy

The last time that an Indian demanded that he be treated with respect by a foreign invader was when Porus battled Alexander on the banks of Jhelum in 326 BC. Legend has it that Porus lost (although some historians dispute this). Legend also has it that when Alexander asked the defeated Porus how he wished to be treated, the valiant Porus said, “Treat me like a King.” So he was. The moral is that others will treat you the way you want to be treated. Sadly ours has been a history of perfidy, treachery and surrender — at Terain, Panipat, San Thome, Plassey, with our Jai Chands and Mir Jaffars, or Seringapattnam where Tipu Sultan was betrayed to the British by the Nizam and the Marathas. And now Bhopal.

There has been considerable debate in India in recent days on the aftermath of Bhopal 1984. Most of it sounds like a personalised whodunit and about vested interests which misses other essential issues. Surely, Union Carbide was aware of the lethality of the chemical being used to produce the pesticide in its Bhopal factory. Unproven technology had been sent to India and the deadly methyl isocyanate arrived in huge quantities even when the mother company was aware that there could be a catastrophe should things go wrong at the factory. A warning to this effect had been issued in the parent company in the US but was never communicated to Bhopal. Added to this is the fact that the Bhopal unit was on a dollar-saving spree to cut costs by minimising safety measures. This makes both the companies culpable. It is Union Carbide that is responsible and it should be made to pay.

Once the gas leaked in Bhopal and the fatalities occurred, as a nation we did precious little to ensure that the victims got the relief that they needed and deserved. We ourselves diluted the case to the level where the US company could say that $500 per victim was “plenty good for Indians”. This reminds us of what the great Winston Churchill had said about using lethal gas: “I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes.” He wrote this in a War Office memo in May 1919 in the context of West Asia. The same attitude prevails when we are fobbed off with loose change, but then we have been willing conspirators in this ugly reality.

In contrast, the British have offered billions of dollars as compensation for the recent Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Muammar Gaddafi was forced to pay five million pounds per family for the 270 who died in the PanAm Flight 103 bombing at Lockerbie. The Libyans will pay another two billion pounds for having supplied Semtex to the IRA who then used this in terror strikes in the UK. A total of 800 million pounds will be paid to the 147 families affected by these attacks. One might argue that Bhopal was not about terrorism; but surely it was about criminal and wilful neglect. No compensation will bring back the dead, but surely there has to be some sense of fair play, however
hardnosed a country’s business and profit instincts might be.

A substantial upward revision of the compensation is the least one can expect. There have already been veiled threats that should the Indians get too demanding, US-India trade and commercial interests will suffer. So be it. We should remember and remind the US that it is offering us commercial deals for its military aircraft, there is no friendship price. It is also packaged in obnoxious preconditions like the EUMA. So we should feel free to shop around in the open market for the best deal that suits our national security interests.

Finally, while we may debate whether or not Dow Chemicals carries the liability to clean up the toxic factory site, we have done precious little either to clean up or force Dow to do it.All these years as files got tossed around nothing was done to clean Bhopal of the toxic hazard. Even now, groundwater tests show that the carbon tetrachloride (a cancer-causing chemical) content is 2,400 times in excess of the safety level. Carbon tetrachloride is used in pesticides and has been banned in most countries.

Meanwhile, collective and continued apathy and indifference has meant that apart from the estimated 15,000 who have died (figures vary) there are about 5,00,000 who suffer from chronic diseases. Maybe we should now take up Mr Ratan Tata’s suggestion that Indian industry should detoxify Bhopal — perhaps as belated penance because Government seems frozen into inaction.

It is worthwhile to look around to see how other countries protect their perceived interests. US President Barack Obama thumps the desk and vows to ‘kick ass’ when confronted with the oil spill. The Israelis have used force to prevent an attempt to break the Gaza blockade. The Iranians hunker down and refuse to give in to global demands about their nuclear programme. This is not a value judgement on the correctness of their interests. This is a comment on the willingness of the state to protect its interests.

We, on the other hand, seem over eager to look good and rationalise even on behalf of an adversary. Consequently, we end up with the short end of the bargain. Ultimately others will respect us and listen to us if we are prepared to defend our interests, come what may. Greatness will be not gifted to us; we will have to stand up and fight for it.

Bhopal is about our national failure; it is also about our national tragedy. Do we have the courage and ability to say “Never again?” The next test will come shortly when the Nuclear Liability Bill comes up for consideration in Parliament. The fear is that given our track record we might agree to terms less favourable to us.

Source : The Pioneer, 17th June 2010

Setting their house in Order

Its Punjabi heartland is at stake . pakistan must tackle its demons without being selective.

When two extreme Organsiations (Islami Jamaat Tulaba and Tulaba Jamaat-Ud-Dawa) compete , the result can only be increased Radicalisation as each in competing to establish its Islamic Credentials.

When the topic of terrorism-related threats is discussed, most of us think of Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The scene of activity is the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) and the borderlands of Afghanistan and Pakistan. There are visions of Predators stalking the region to search and kill. When this is not the scene, then it is the threat to the US from the likes of Times Square wannabe-bomber Faisal Shahzad, their mindsets and their mentors.

When an angered and frightened US speaks of retaliation to this, it speaks of the wrath of America the next time around. Pakistan’s rulers pretend anger and insult, and they let loose their leg men on the streets shouting ‘Death to America!’. The Americans are in a dilemma. They cannot attack their favourite ally and justify to Congress that they need to give more arms and financial assistance to it. Pakistan’s rulers feel they have a winning game — of threatening to lose the match and country if they are not given steroids. Pakistan’s battle is not only on its western frontiers; it is now in the Punjabi heartland.

Since the Lal Masjid episode in Islamabad in 2007, the murderous terrorist attacks on the Marriot Hotel, the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Special Service Group establishments as well as the police show the reach of the terrorists. The twin attacks on the Garhi Shahu and Model Town Ahmadiya masjids in Lahore on Friday, May 28, the attack on Jinnah Hospital on the night of May 31 and the June 9 attack on the Nato convoy outside Islamabad are manifestations of a virus that is radicalising Pakistani society faster and deeper than we realise — or Pakistan’s rulers care to admit. The recent ban on social websites YouTube and Facebook by the Pakistani government indicates its nervousness in dealing with radicals.

True, there is a section of Pakistani society that finds events like violence in the name of religion, or medieval practices foisted upon it by self-styled guardians of the faith, abhorrent. The other truth is that these hordes have muscle power, are financially well-endowed and — what has become increasingly evident — there is either benign neglect by the State or active connivance most of the time. One does not have to go too far back to the Zia years to see what has been happening to Punjabi society even in the post-Zia years.

President Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq had left in place not only the madrasa system of obscurantist education, but he had also mainstreamed this. So while the ISI diverted its experience and jihadi hordes from the Afghan front to the Kashmir one, Pakistan’s military rulers also created new terrorist outfits in the 1990s for specific action in Jammu and Kashmir. These were all Punjabi in origin and base. Recruitment has continued for the ‘jihad’ from various parts of Pakistan, notably from southern Punjab.

All these terrorist organisations have become interlinked and inter-dependent and an estimated 3,000-8,000 Punjab-based jihadis do service jointly alongside the Punjabi Taliban in Fata and Punjab. The Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP) are also suspected to be linked with al-Qaeda. Politicians being politicians, the Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif brothers have been flirting outrageously with the SSP in Punjab to queer the pitch for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Sheikh Akram, an opposition MP from Jhang, fears that there could be ten Swats in Punjab if the extremists are not checked.

So, today, we have a situation in which powerful terrorist organisations like the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT), the JeM and others, along with Sunni sectarian outfits like the SSP and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), have recruits from the same village, district or area. Recruits for the mostly Punjabi Pakistani army also come from the same region and possibly from the same madrasas. Punjab is also the province that has many of Pakistan’s formidable troop concentrations against India — and it is here that all of Pakistan’s vital nuclear facilities are located.

Should Punjab get destabilised by Islamic radicals, this will have devastating consequences for Pakistan. Many wonder how the young and educated are getting affected by jihadi philosophy. Even today the curriculum established during the Zia years for the mainstream schools has not changed. In the Punjab University campus too, there is greater stress on Islamic tenets. The Daily Times, in its column ‘Campus Window’ (April 11, 2007), noted that while the world “heads towards modernisation and scientific knowledge, Punjab University, which is one of the oldest educational institutions in South Asia, is rapidly turning into a hub of Islamism”.

There are innumerable examples of attempts to introduce extreme religious ideologies in the discourse and in outward symbolism. These range from some very regressive and muscular moral policing on the campus to the downright ridiculous — like seeking to ban Alexander Pope’s poem ‘The Rape of the Lock’, as the title was considered vulgar.

Leading the campaign so far has been the students’ wing of Jamaat-e-Islami, the Islami Jamaat Tulaba, a rabid Sunni organisation. Its monopoly is now being challenged by an equally rabid students’ organisation, the new Tulaba Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the students’ wing of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the mentor of the LeT. When two extreme organisations compete, the result can only be increased radicalisation, as each is competing against the other to establish its Islamic credentials.

What has been apparent for long to many of us here — but is clearly emerging now — is that Afghanistan will have a chance at peace only if the virus in Pakistan is eradicated. The next few months are going to be a major challenge for Pakistani Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, if the declared intention is to take military action against the SSP, the JeM and the LeJ. Pakistan must fight its own demons urgently and not selectively. This will depend upon how long Pakistan’s rulers remain in denial about the home-grown existential threat to them and their country.

Source : Hindustan Times , 16th June 2010