Karachi -Pakistan's lifeline or City of Death

In recent times while the world's attention was on events in FATA and North Waziristan, another brutal battle has been raging in Karachi, which is a microcosm of Pakistan, even if the soul they say, is in the Punjabi Lahore.

In one brutal two-day spell, 21 people were killed and several injured in the second week of January this year is a reflection of the ethnic suspicion and hatred.

Both the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) and the Awami National Party (ANP) despite being in coalition with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)-led government in Sindh blamed each other for this rise in the killings.

According to the Citizens' Police Liaison Committee, 1247 persons were killed in 2010 - the highest since 1995 while more than the 801 who were similarly killed in 2009. The latest spree would suggest that the current year could be equally violent and brutal unless the governments in Islamabad and Karachi show considerable resolve in trying to stop this mayhem.

Alarmed at the trend of violence and, in the context of the Salman Taseer killing, the Daily Times of Lahore carried a number of editorials and articles variously captioned "Bloodbath in Karachi, Ethnic Strife in Karachi, Pakistan's Beirut-Karachi, Karachi Operation."

So, did other English language papers. The reasons are obvious is that the 16 million megapolis has attracted countless refugees and job hunters from the rest of the country. Mostly homeless, these hopefuls live in their own ethnic ghettoes. One might rightly say that Karachi's problems of crime, law and order and unemployment are no different from those of other similar cities the world over. If the local mafia in Malegaon could murder a civil servant, then Karachi or Mumbai are only magnified versions of the same problem.

The issues in Karachi are far more complicated where ethnic, religious, sectarian interests clash violently and merge with business vendettas by the all-pervasive and powerful crime mafia. Extortion, kidnappings (more than 100 last year), narcotics and gun running are the chief specializations, quite often with political patronage.

Political parties have their own hit men who are known to take shelter in the UAE when the trail gets too hot. The MQM which control 17 of the 19 National Assembly seats from Karachi, fears that the influx of Pushtun from the NWFP and later also from FATA not only alters the ethnic mix of the city but a large number of the newer refugees are Talibanised. Karachi with an estimated 3.5 million Pushtun population is the largest Pushtun city in Pakistan.

Karachi contributes nearly 70 percent of the revenue to the central government and 25 percent of the GDP. In recent years US military has been sending 75 percent of its supplies for the Afghan theatre through Karachi, which includes 40 percent of its fuel requirements. Karachi is Pakistan's jugular and NATO's vital logistics link. Any disruption in Karachi, which is savage or unending, will have grave consequences up country and on the economy.

One of the main problems has been that Karachi, like the entire country, has been allowed to be highly weaponised - eight years ago the number of unlicensed arms was 18 million. This figure would have grown since then.

All political parties and sectarian groups depend upon heavily armed supporters, and these include not only the MQM and the ANP, but also the MQM (Haqiqi), Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamaat Ulema-e-Islam, Sunni Tehreek, along with other Baloch and Sindhi groups. Karachi has seen Sunni-Shia violence as well.

In areas far removed from the elegant and up market Clifton, MQM and ANP have marked out their territories; the former control places like Orangi, Korangi and Azizabad which are no -go areas for others, the ANP dominates Al Asif Square and Sohrab Goth. The MQM has three fears.

It is concerned about not only losing out to the growing Pushtun numbers but also to increasing Talibanisation; it was Karachi's Binori Masjid that was a major Taliban centre in the early days and remains so today. The hold of the Deobandhis and the Wahhabis has been growing in Karachi.

Further, their relations with the Sindhis who have always perceived the Mohajirs as interlopers have remained hostile even when MQM and PPP are in the same government.

It will take years of sustained effort to overcome this and to restore the writ of the state in parts of Karachi. A cash strapped country, more concerned with building its defence apparatus has allowed its infrastructure and socio-economic services to weaken to the extent that the Jamaat-ut-Dawa, the mother of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, is believed to have the best ambulance service in the country.

A dismal economic outlook for 2011 has been aggravated by the devastating floods of last year which had affected one-fifth of Pakistan and the number of people affected exceeded those affected by the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004, the Pak Occupied Kashmir earthquake of 2005 and the Haiti earthquake of 2010.

This has led to even more rapidly growing urbanisation causing further demographic and ethnic pressures on cities like Karachi and fertile ground for recruits to the Islamic parties. Karachi today is like a pressure cooker with a mal-functioning safety valve.

Pakistanis believe that the Americans use them periodically and then walk away. This time if they do, then the elite will be left to face the Islamic radicals who have the government cowering and unable to even amend the Blasphemy Law.

Given Pakistan's dependence on doles and a poor economic outlook for 2011, the main worry in Rawalpindi would be US disinterest in Pakistan after the draw down of forces in Afghanistan begins.

A decline in the handouts would further limit the ability of Islamabad to help Karachi. With the present turmoil in the Arab world, Pakistan will slip down further on the US radar. Stephen Cohen, the American scholar on South Asia described Pakistan, as a "house under water" in an interview on January 6, 2011 adding that "Except for its territory, which is strategically important, there is not much in Pakistan that is of benefit to anyone." That then is the state of play today. (ANI)


Source : Yahoo.com , 41st January 2011 ,The words expressed in the above article are that of Mr. Vikram Sood.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/karachi-pakistans-lifeline-city-death-20110130-211643-552.html

Diplomatic tai chi

When Lang Lang, a resident of New York, was invited by the White House for a piano recital at the banquet for Chinese President Hu Jintao in Washington DC on January 19, no one really bothered to check the music he would play. The score he played had Mr Hu beaming and the Chinese Internet users delighted.

According to commentators like Matthew Robertson, early morning TV viewers in China knew about an hour or so in advance that Lang Lang would play the song My Motherland. The melody selected by the pianist was the theme song from the 1956 Chinese propaganda film of Korean War days — Battle on Shangganling Mountain (Triangle Hill). The song refers to the Americans as “jackals” (some say it is “wolves”) and the victory at Triangle Hill was meant to depict victory over imperialists.
Quite obviously, Mr Hu’s hosts did not know the significance of the song. Apparently they were quite satisfied after the mandatory reprimand the US President had delivered to his guest when he spoke of the need for China to observe human rights so long as Mr Hu bought $45 billion worth of American goods. Whatever spin the Americans and the White House might put on this incident now, it is being seen as a great propaganda victory in China.

The question is, was this a carefully-choreographed plan by the Chinese who knew that they would receive the par-for-the-course lecture on human rights and values of democracy even as the two countries remain locked in a economic-trade-currency embrace, and the Americans had to be given an immediate response on their home ground? Or does this reflect a tussle of some sorts in Beijing between an assertive People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which may want a bigger role in foreign policy in the decade ahead, and a political leadership that is now going to be in transition as Mr Hu prepares to hand over power to his selected successor, Xi Jinping, by 2012? And therefore this exercise of display of assertiveness with each power centre positioning itself inside China and positioning themselves against the US where there will be presidential elections in 2012.

All of 2010 saw a more assertive Chinese foreign policy activity in its periphery, including India. The New Year began similarly when the Chinese arranged the leak about their new J-20 stealth fighter just hours ahead of US defence secretary Robert Gates’ meeting with President Hu on January 11 in Beijing. The word is that this fighter is based on US technology having got some of the technology from an American F-117 that was shot down in the Balkans in 1999. Apart from this, the Chinese also revealed that Shi Lang, the first of six Chinese aircraft carriers, will sail later this year; and the Dong Feng 21D missile, which is capable of sinking a US aircraft carrier, is now a part of the Chinese Second Artillery Corps arsenal. The message is that the western Pacific is more and more a Chinese domain. The gauntlet has been thrown by a China that has hubris as the other superpower on its way to attaining its pre-ordained position in the world.

If China’s military assertiveness is the new factor that worries the Pentagon, it is the Chinese quest for technology that has in many ways made this assertiveness possible today. China’s economic rise is not merely export driven. It is based on the principle and practice that to be competitive in the global economy, China would need to innovate and indigenise. Above all factors today, it is innovation that will drive growth and competitiveness, and this is only possible through a well-integrated education, research and infrastructure. Three years ago, the Chinese were the fourth-highest spenders on research and development at $66 billion. The concentration has been on hybrid electric vehicles, high-speed rail and solar power systems — the future for transport, energy and communications (American Progress, January 14, 2011, report). This is something we lack and a mere Nano and an LCA (Light Combat Aircraft, Tejas) are far too inadequate. They do not qualify as 21st century innovations.

Inevitably, a major event like the Hu visit evoked comments from the old cold warriors of the previous century, Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski. The former had broken the ice between Beijing and Washington and the latter had arranged the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two. Kissinger took the first step towards the creation of a rising China against the Soviets and now speaks of the need for the two countries to interact globally and avoid another Cold War. Mr Kissinger sees the need to build an emerging world order as a joint enterprise. Mr Brzezinski gave us the Afghan jihad that thrives today, and the few “Islamic hotheads” that he scorned at then have become a global menace. He too stressed on the need for the US and China to collaborate on global issues like North Korea and West Asia. This one supposes is a continuation of the G2 principle that US President Barack Obama first enunciated when he visited China in November 2009.

At first, seemingly lukewarm and reacting to President Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama and arms sales to Taiwan, China now assesses that its moment has come and demands that it be heard as an equal partner.

The Hu-Obama joint statement spoke of close cooperation on climate and energy problems and “deeper bilateral engagement and coordination” on “a wide range of security, economic, social, energy and environmental issues”. Platitudes apart, the two countries, despite their differences on economic issues, are expected to work together on many others. China may have risen for its neighbourhood but not enough to take on the US frontally.

The internal debate in the US whether China needs to be contained or engaged and co-opted will continue. Whichever way we look at it, China will engage the US attentions far more than India. Also, neither of these global powers will jeopardise their bilateral relations for India’s sake. In the final analysis, India is going to be fairly alone.

Source : Asian Age , 25th January 2011, Vikram Sood, Former Head of the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency

Pakistan Multiple Crises

Two to three years has been the average life span of elected governments in Pakistan ever since Z A Bhutto was PM from 1973 to 1977. His daughter Benazir alternated with her rival Nawaz Sharif from 1988 till 1999 when the Mian Sahib was overthrown by yet another saviour in Khaki, General Pervez Musharraf. And both former Prime Ministers were forced into exile.

Thus, going by past precedents the present combine of President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani would now seem to have run out of its allotted time. Several crises confront the PPP led government and there are no easy solutions, quite a few outside the range of the PPP leadership's capabilities to solve them.

The Commissar and the General

Apart from the ongoing turmoil in FATA and the tussle between the US and the Pak Army over North Waziristan is well known. An exasperated US administration finds itself unable to push the Pakistan Army led by Gen Kayani into launching operations in North Waziristan as it prepares for its draw down of forces later in the year. Each time the Americans press this issue or launch their drone attacks they slip in their popularity rating among the Pakistanis and each time Gen Kayani stonewalls he shines as a patriot.

The General has been driving a hard bargain with the Americans successfully as he silently strengthens his hold both on the system and the armed forces. Quite obviously, General Kayani has an agenda that goes beyond just refurbishing the image of the Army with generous assistance from the US. A professional Army does not need three year extensions in service to its Chief beyond the stipulated term unless the agenda is wider and political or ominously, even military and strategic.

Setting aside the economic crisis that engulfs Pakistan, there are two other crises that are brewing a political crisis in Islamabad and an ethnic-religious crisis in Karachi of grave dimensions that no one really wants to talk about.

A Political Crisis Unfolds

Zardari and Gilani are resigned to having to deal with an over bearing Army since this is the way of political life in Pakistan. But they have other disadvantages compared to their main political rival, Mian Nawaz Sharif and his PML (N) or even their ally the MQM led by Altaf Hussain both of who command personal loyalties and have strong cadre based parties.

Nawaz controls the Punjab, while Altaf controls Karachi. Gilani and Zardari are comparative lightweights in the PPP and do not command that kind of respect that these two do within their parties and people. Nawaz is a Punjabi, has close links with the Saudis and the Jamaat Islami, which has a following in the Pak Army. He himself has strong right wing religious leanings, which endears him to a section of the Army and the religious parties. Yes his attempts to manipulate the Army in the past despite being originally a protigi of the Army, and his religious leanings would make him unacceptable to the Army and the US.

In a free and fair election, Nawaz could possibly sweep Punjab and he who wins Punjab rules Pakistan. This is possibly Kayani's threat to the Americans at this juncture a few months before they plan their pull out. In the present crisis, perhaps Nawaz himself would not want to take over the reins of office so it suits him to see the government further weakened. He would rather wait it out unless an election is thrust upon him.

The MQM's Complaints

The MQM crisis is somewhat different. While the world's attention has been focused on the war in FATA against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the NWFP (Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa) ethnic and religious violence has been increasing alarmingly in Karachi. The MQM has for years complained and feared that the ingress of Pushtuns from the frontier many of whom are Talibanised would tilt the balance away from them while the activities of religious parties like the Deobandi parties like Lashkar e Jhangvi would further erode its hold in urban Sindh especially Karachi and Hyderabad. There is another complication in that politically the Mohajirs support the MQM, the Sindhis support the PPP and the Pushtun support the Awami National Party. The latter two invariably combine against the MQM.

Politically motivated targeted killings in Karachi have been increasing alarmingly. The Daily Times of Lahore reported that last year about 780 people were killed in ethnic, religious and political violence in Karachi which is similar to the suicide killings in the NWFP (797) and more than in the rest of the country (427). While the MQM may have its own political objectives in complaining to Gilani about the worsening law and order situation in Karachi the fact is that the metropolis has become a hot bed of rivalries between various competing and conflicting interests with strong overtones of a Talibanised culture and MQM fears it may have to cede ground to Wahhabi-Salafi beliefs brought in by more and more Pushtun leaving their homes for Karachi. Islamabad's failure to redress the MQM's complaints is the real reason for the threat of MQM to walk out although it is camouflaged in economic demands to bring in support from the Sindhis as well. To make matters worse for the MQM, its leaders have been trading insults with the PML (N) leadership. Consequently, the political situation looks very uncertain and the PPP looks extremely weak. And enter General Kayani centre stage?

The Assassination and the Islamic Fundamentalist Fervour

There is another development that could make the Army even more indispensible to the situation in today's Pakistan - the assassination of Salman Taseer the Punjab Governor and a close ally and friend of President Zardari, by one of his own guards for his opposition to Blasphemy Laws. It is not the first time that the religious right has resorted to punish those opposed to its creed. While Pakistan's liberal elite may mourn Taseer's death a wide section of the religious right has actually approved the killing.

The comments that were visible on Twitter and Facebook supporting the assassin were a chilling indicator of the direction Pakistan had taken in recent years. Killing for religion is frightening enough but the reaction that has been visible is even more frightening. The diktat by the Jamaate Ahle Sunnat Pakistan that no Muslim should attend Taseer's funeral sends a chill down every liberal spine.

The JASP is the largest body of the Barelvi group and considerate moderate in comparison to the Deobandhi-Wahhabi-Salafi Sunnis. Gen Zia's dream has become Pakistan's nightmare. The message to the liberal elite is - shut up and put up. The comment by the well known Pakistani commentator Cyril Almeida that, "Conservative forces are not just on a roll in Pakistan, they're pretty dominant. And liberal forces are not just on the back foot, but, really, they are extinguished," sums up the despondency and the gravity.

This is not the first time that a prominent Pakistani leader has been assassinated by suspected Islamic hardliners or attempts have been made. Benazir was killed by three years ago at the second attempt. They almost succeeded in killing Gen Musharraf in 2003 when he turned his back to the Taliban and some religious extremists in response to American demands. Then there were several attacks on the symbols of Pak power since September 11, 2001 including the Army and obviously the rot had set in but all this was swept away in the larger interest of preserving the peace and fighting the larger American war.

Teacher's Pets

In the midst of all this one would continue to have doubts about Pakistani leadership's commitment to fight terror. It is believed that, the well-known senior Pakistani terrorist Qari Saifullah Akhtar from the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami with links to both the ISI and Al Qaeda was released from custody in early in December 2010. He had been taken into custody in August 2010 for trying to recruit five Americans for Al Qaeda when they had visited Pakistan in November 2009.

Qari Akhtar has a colourful jihadi history. Qari and the HUJI have been very close to the Taliban and Al Qaeda; he was involved along with some jihadi Army officers in an assassination attempt on Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and Gen Abdul Waheed Kakkar in 1995 and over throw the government in 1995. Released in 1996, Akhtar fled to Afghanistan and then plotted the assassination of General Musharraf in 2003; he fled again to the UAE, deported in 2004 and released from custody again in 2007; was suspected to have been involved in the abortive attempt on Benazir in October 2007; detained in February 2008 and released in June 2008; and he was one of the main conspirators in the attack on the Marriott hotel in Islamabad in September 2008.

The ease with which Akhtar has been able to change residence only adds to suspicions that when the trail gets too hot the Pakistani establishment pulls in its assets for the trail to go cold and then release them when it is considered safe. This happens ever so often to Lashkar e Tayyaba leader Hafiz Saeed and the Jaish e Mohammed leader Maulana Masood Azhar.

Indian reactions

Some of us worry that this could have an adverse reaction in India. There is an overreaction in some sections about intolerance in India. We must learn to trust the Indian Muslim instead of assuming he will be influenced by events and thought processes or ideologies in Pakistan. In so doing we challenge his intelligence and doubt his loyalties. In Pakistan they demanded the funeral of Taseer be boycotted because he was a liberal, in India the Indian Muslim leaders refused to allow the killers of Mumbai 26/11 be buried on Indian soil because they were terrorists. That is the difference between them and us.

True there is a fringe element in India as in most democratic societies but it does not endanger the state in the manner it has in Pakistan where it is no longer a fringe element but may well have become mainstream. In fact, extreme belief has been state sponsored in Pakistan; not so in India. The trick is to marginalise the extreme fringe but not to frighten the mainstream. Reaction here tends to lose touch with Indian realities and creates more discord. Careless off the cuff remarks are more responsible for this sort of thing and do not make for responsible commentary. By Vikram Sood(ANI)



Source : The views expressed in the above article are those of Mr. Vikram Sood ( ANI ) 6th January 2011