COUNTER TERRORISM IN
A JOINT PUBLICATION
BY HERITAGE FOUNDATION, WASHINGTO DC
AND
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION,
The Heritage Foundation, Washington DC and the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi had organised a conference on US and Indian experiences in handling terrorism Asia last year and the result of this was a book “Counter Terrorism in South Asia” which was released by Dr Shashi Tharoor, MP in New Delhi on February 22, 2011. An audio-visual summary of the inauguration can be seen at http://bit.ly/eu6UCt
Speaking at the book release, I had made the following brief observations
Each country understands threats from terrorism according to its own experiences and there is now an understanding in the West that global terrorism can only be fought globally. Both
So while we understand partially that we can no longer distinguish between my terrorist and your terrorist, nor say my terrorist first, there are still differences on how the problem in
What is often not understood by those who push for talks, is that
Terrorists don’t have to strike every day. The fear that they can and that is can be catastrophic, is a nightmare. The fear is that fissile material in
Counter terrorism is a long hard struggle and cannot be conducted in isolation any more.
Also given are extracts from Chapter 2 of the book which was written by me.
THE PROBLEM BRIEFLY STATED
Terrorism, in its present phase, seems to be about jihadi terrorism in the global context; but for countries like
Very often there is a demand that root causes be addressed to solve the problem of terrorism. This is a mistaken notion as there is no justifiable root cause for killing innocents and there is no reason for trying to distinguish either between my terrorist and yours or asserting that killing of security forces or targeting government institutions and officials is a legitimate course of action in any society.
Terrorism, as a violent manifestation of present day disaffection and disenchantment, in the context of exploding expectations, is something the modern world will have to live with, in the sense that it can never be completely eradicated as new sources of conflict , real or perceived emerge. Ideally it should be prevented but this does not happen because states usually remain in denial till it is too late; the next best desirable objective is to defeat terrorism in a manner that it ceases to be a threat.
The threat that
Broadly one would describe the various insurgencies and terrorism as follows:
· J&K: Islamist separatist movement that has become extremist with Pakistani assistance
·
· North east: Mainly seeking independence with smaller groups seeking autonomy
· Left Wing extremism: As the name implies radical movement spreading across nine major states of
Each has needed different policy and strategic options to tackle them.
Although two major terrorist/insurgency threats – Kashmir and spreading outwards to the rest of
Thus it is clear that insurgencies tend to last for decades and can be controlled through a mixture of offensive counter terrorist methods accompanied by the cutting off foreign assistance – be it shelter, weapons, training and finances. It is a fallacy to assume that terrorism can be controlled by first offering politically expedient palliatives like development assistance without first overpowering the violent phase. Since such movements take decades to be controlled it requires sustained political will to continue with the campaign even when it seemingly looks unwinnable and politically unpopular. The start point of any counter terror policy is obviously a political will to tackle this problem in the face of reverses.
Terrorism has evolved over time and now includes suicide terrorism, maritime terrorism and even airborne terrorism, with the fear of WMD terrorism always present. Surrounded by failed or failing states, India has to contend with hostile policies of Pakistan which are threatening that country itself which increases the fear that faced with its own problems Pakistan will seek a diversion.
It is the sequencing of the counter terrorist actions that is important on the basis of five requirements - detect, deter, destroy and then develop and dialogue. Any attempt to dialogue before a reasonable semblance of the first three steps will be interpreted by the terrorist as appeasement. Therefore, the timing of the last two aspects has to be carefully nuanced.
INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES – AND CO-ORDINATION
This then leads us to the ability to detect acts of terrorism – which means development of a first rate intelligence grid that combines both techint and humint capabilities. Absence of hard data, intelligence and therefore, inadequate follow up invariably leads to inability to prevent a terrorist act or if an act has been committed leads to inexact reactions that causes more grief than it solves. In federal structures such as India’s where law and order is a state subject it is imperative that there be co-ordination between the centre and the states because either the first intelligence information will emanate from the state or would need to be developed and pursued by the state agencies.
Attempts at rejuvenating and reorganising the Intelligence and Security set ups were part of the Kargil Review Committee recommendations. Apart from the creation of a DIA and a dedicated Techint collection facility, the NTRO, we also had the Multi Agency Centre (MAC) for collecting and co-ordinating terrorism –related information from all over
However, since the Mumbai attacks had shown up various weaknesses in the CI system, there have been several steps to revitalise the entire CI grid in other way. The MAC referred to earlier has been made functional, there is full online connectivity between the centre and its 30 important subsidiary units in the states; the National Investigation Agency has been established; the strength of the Intelligence Bureau has been augmented, decentralised hubs for the National Security Guards have been established in Mumbai, Chennai,
In a related development, it is proposed to establish a National Intelligence Grid, where Intelligence organisations like the Intelligence Bureau, National Investigation Agency and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence will be given access to 20 databases held by public authorities like banks, airlines, railways, insurance companies and immigration and income tax department. The project is ambitious, will have a long gestation period after it is approved, involves intricate systems of co-ordination, the data bases that are there will not cover the entire population, and yet there are bound to be privacy concerns in this regard in India
While the strength of the Central Reserve Police Force will increase from the present 267000 to more than 300000 the Force itself has been stretched greatly with anti-insurgency duties all over the NE, J&K and
It is not just the superstructures that are important. While intelligence co-ordination remains a challenge that each government handles in its own way, in India another problem has been low capacity levels; for instance even if we look at it statistically, India’s military to population ratio is 1:855 while in Pakistan it is 1:255 in China 1:591. Similar adverse statistics prevail for the police force making
The tendency, to take shelter by settling ‘root causes’ and providing development assistance, without first controlling the territory, is flawed. It is a basic truth that one cannot develop something unless it is under one’s control. It is therefore not enough to improve superstructures but considerable effort has to be made in
Despite the best of arrangements at security that one can conceive, it is an accepted fact that a terrorist attack of smaller or greater magnitude can occur. The strongest deterrent at that juncture is always going to be the manner and sharpness of the response of the state, its people and the media. Therefore, Quick Response Mechanisms, which first seek to neutralise the attack through specialised forces and then restrict the fallout through administrative mechanisms, have to be in position all the time. This is not an easy task in a vast country like where the threat is diverse geographically and in its nature. Some of these weaknesses showed up in the Mumbai carnage in November 2008 although the Government has sought to remedy some of these since then as described earlier.
Initial responses to an outbreak of insurgency have to be force related and resort to discussions across a negotiating table with the insurgent even where the demands are known, should be non-negotiable for the state or simply unacceptable.
It is therefore necessary to discuss
THE
This has been a success story but after a long trial of initiatives that were not only ineffective but also counterproductive. The 1980s were marked by counter terrorism policies that showed confusion and indecision. After the tragic events of that period marked by extreme violence, attempts to suppress the movement through force were not only half hearted but also attempts to negotiate with the terrorists only confirmed the basic principle that premature negotiations not only strengthen the terrorist, stiffen his resolve but also weaken and confuse the counter terrorist forces. Each peace negotiation had given the terrorists that much breathing space to recoup and regroup.
Besides the terrorists continued to receive extensive support from Gen Zia ul Haq’s
One of the first steps taken was the revival of the
Another step was to ensure close co-operation among the military, the police, the Punjab Armed Police and the para-military forces like the CRPF and the Border Security Force. There unified command centres, tactical headquarters and the communications were interlinked and shared. The police led most of the campaigns with the Army available for support and cordon.
This surge in the activity of the police had become possible because they were better equipped, not only in the weaponry, they were more mobile, and had better personal protection. In addition to this the training of the PAP and the Army units deployed was upgraded to focus on urban as well as rural terrorism, seizure search and rescue drills were conducted to give the counter terrorist units a decisive edge and self-confidence.
Once the earlier policy of striking political deals and negotiating with the various terrorist groups and their leaders was abandoned in favour of pursuit of terrorists the opportunity for the terrorists to play one against the other disappeared. Instead greater energy was devoted to protecting the population and providing better facilities to the police and paramilitary force. Alongside it was ensured that democratic elections were not abandoned. The initial response was poor but by the early1990s but by 1993 the local body elections recorded huge voter participation to more than 80%. The battle had been joined and largely won by then.
One other aspect was a change in the attitude of the Bhutto Government towards assistance to Sikh terrorists who had taken shelter in
THE NORTH EAST
The North East of India has been characterised by a number of ethnicity based insurgencies for more than 50 years beginning with the revolt by A.Z. Phizo, the Naga leader who had taken shelter in the
The typical reaction of the politician and the local bureaucrat has usually been to first deny the existence of a problem and then to offer economic and financial palliatives which only aggravated situations that had ethnic moorings. This political policy confusion continues even today. The approach of the central government has been a mixture of economic-aid packages, political adjustments, negotiations and military action.
Yet it was only the use of force and accompanied by effective border management to control illegal migration and weapons transfer that has brought the situation somewhat under control today although insurgent attacks continue even today. Another aspect has been the changed attitude of the
Numerous problems remain – chiefly of illegal migration, which impinges on the socio-economic and demographic pattern of the region/district where these migrants reach, this spawns corruption and smuggling, thereby creating a criminal-terrorist nexus that operates on both sides of the border. The arrest and detention of important leaders of the ULFA and NDFB have had a debilitating effect on these organisations but these groups have not been completely subdued yet. The various movements continue and the state remains mostly under capacity especially in the local police force, which has been under trained and inadequate, in tackling these situations more effectively.
This insurgency has in its present form lasted more than 20 years primarily because f the continued support it has received from
Fatalities in Terrorist Violence
1988 - 2010
Fatalities in Terrorist Violence
1988 - 2010
| ' | Incidents | Civilians | Security Force Personnel | Terrorists | Total |
| 1988 | 390 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 31 |
| 1989 | 2154 | 79 | 13 | 0 | 92 |
| 1990 | 3905 | 862 | 132 | 183 | 1177 |
| 1991 | 3122 | 594 | 185 | 614 | 1393 |
| 1992 | 4971 | 859 | 177 | 873 | 1909 |
| 1993 | 4457 | 1023 | 216 | 1328 | 2567 |
| 1994 | 4484 | 1012 | 236 | 1651 | 2899 |
| 1995 | 4479 | 1161 | 297 | 1338 | 2796 |
| 1996 | 4224 | 1333 | 376 | 1194 | 2903 |
| 1997 | 3004 | 840 | 355 | 1177 | 2372 |
| 1998 | 2993 | 877 | 339 | 1045 | 2261 |
| 1999 | 2938 | 799 | 555 | 1184 | 2538 |
| 2000 | 2835 | 842 | 638 | 1808 | 3288 |
| 2001 | 3278 | 1067 | 590 | 2850 | 4507 |
| 2002 | NA | 839 | 469 | 1714 | 3022 |
| 2003 | NA | 658 | 338 | 1546 | 2542 |
| 2004 | NA | 534 | 325 | 951 | 1810 |
| 2005 | NA | 521 | 218 | 1000 | 1739 |
| 2006 | NA | 349 | 168 | 599 | 1116 |
| 2007 | NA | 164 | 121 | 492 | 777 |
| 2008 | NA | 69 | 90 | 382 | 541 |
| 2009 | NA | 55 | 78 | 242 | 375 |
| 2010* | NA | 19 | 45 | 144 | 208 |
| Total | 47234 | 14585 | 5962 | 22316 | 42863 |
* Data till July 12, 2010
Note: Compiled from news reports and are provisional.
Data from South Asia Terrorism Portal, New Delhi
Figures show a declining graph of violence and fatalities but this could be cyclical and t is still too early to conclude that the insurgency is over. More likely the tactics may have changed. As the figures indicate there was extreme violence in the 1990s up till about 2001 after which the trend shows a downward trajectory. There were a few reasons for this. In the 1990s the state’s response was heavily militaristic, partly because there seemed no other strategy at that time, and partly because there was inadequate intelligence available. Civilian casualties, both at the hands of the terrorists who wished to instil fear and of the security forces who had inadequate intelligence, were high.
There was a policy vacuum in the early years as the state tried financial and other incentives, dialogue and negotiations with some groups, but these did not succeed as these were considered as appeasement and in fact heightened the demands of various groups. Such moves are at best short term and usually counter-productive. At the same time excessive force defeats the very purpose of gaining superiority and the difficult trick is to use appropriate force in a democracy where the press has free access to events. It is no longer the print and electronic media but the Internet that have to be managed. It is imperative therefore to for the state to first attain high ground both in terms of physical superiority over the terrorist and to wean away the population from the grip of the terrorist. Another factor was that post 2002 the Pakistan government was wary of being seen to be too active in its support of terrorism, not only in J&K but elsewhere in the country. However, Pakistan has not yet given up its basic cult of violence as a means of resolving disputes with India as the Mumbai train blasts of July 2006 and the Mumbai massacre of November 2008 would indicate.
Infiltration of terrorists from Pakistan has been a major problem. It is not just that the India-Pakistan border has been used but also that infiltration takes place via Nepal and Bangladesh. Here too better border management and better intelligence along with co-operation with these governments that helps.
In the absence of the option for hot pursuit into Pakistan or of intelligence co-operation with Pakistan, the state’s reaction was considerably hampered in the early years. Border management was tightened with fencing along the border except that in the J&K region terrain was a hindrance for effective cover. Intelligence and counter strike capabilities improved after a semblance of security was available to the population, former terrorists were effectively turned around for counter strike and intelligence roles. Once specific intelligence was available the success rate of the security forces increased and with that the confidence of the people and this in turn to greater flow of intelligence. The reverse cycle sets in.
The other aspect that was difficult to break was the funds supply route of the hawala. Again this cannot be done without the co-operation with the country which is the source of the transfer, in this case of course Pakistan and the Gulf. This remains a big challenge for the Indian government.
Ultimately there has to be a political solution to the problem but this is beyond the scope of this paper.
LEFT WING EXTREMISM
Statewise Fatalities 2010*
*Source South Asia Terrorism Portal, New Delhi
| States | Civilian | SF | Naxal | Total |
| Andhra Pradesh | 6 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| | 30 | 6 | 7 | 43 |
| Chhattisgarh | 58 | 135 | 69 | 262 |
| Jharkhand | 41 | 12 | 20 | 73 |
| Karnataka | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| Orissa | 29 | 18 | 13 | 60 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | 243 | 33 | 40 | 316 |
| Total* | 413 | 206 | 159 | 778 |
* Data till July 12, 2010
Note: Compiled from news reports and are provisional
Statewise Fatalities 2009
| States | Civilian | SF | Naxal | Total |
| Andhra Pradesh | 10 | 0 | 18 | 28 |
| | 37 | 25 | 16 | 78 |
| Chhattisgarh | 87 | 121 | 137 | 345 |
| Jharkhand | 74 | 67 | 76 | 217 |
| | 12 | 52 | 23 | 87 |
| Orissa | 36 | 32 | 13 | 81 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| | 134 | 15 | 9 | 158 |
| Total* | 391 | 312 | 294 | 997 |
2008
| States | Civilian | SF | Naxal | Total |
| Andhra Pradesh | 28 | 1 | 37 | 66 |
| | 35 | 21 | 15 | 71 |
| Jharkhand | 74 | 39 | 50 | 153 |
| Karnataka | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| Chhattisgarh | 35 | 67 | 66 | 168 |
| | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
| Orissa | 24 | 76 | 32 | 132 |
| | 19 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Tamil Nadu | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 210 | 214 | 214 | 638 |
2007
| States | Civilian | SF | Naxal | Total |
| Andhra Pradesh | 24 | 4 | 45 | 73 |
| | 23 | 21 | 5 | 49 |
| Jharkhand | 69 | 6 | 45 | 120 |
| Karnataka | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Chhattisgarh | 95 | 182 | 73 | 350 |
| | 9 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| Orissa | 13 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 240 | 218 | 192 | 650 |
2006
| States | Civilian | SF | Naxal | Total |
| Andhra Pradesh | 18 | 7 | 127 | 152 |
| | 16 | 5 | 19 | 40 |
| Jharkhand | 18 | 47 | 29 | 94 |
| Karnataka | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chhattisgarh | 189 | 55 | 117 | 361 |
| | 13 | 3 | 33 | 49 |
| Orissa | 3 | 4 | 16 | 23 |
| | 9 | 7 | 4 | 20 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Total | 266 | 128 | 348 | 742 |
2005
| States | Civilian | SF | Naxal | Total |
| Andhra Pradesh | 132 | 21 | 167 | 320 |
| | 25 | 29 | 52 | 106 |
| Jharkhand | 49 | 27 | 20 | 96 |
| Chhattisgarh | 52 | 48 | 26 | 126 |
| Orissa | 13 | 1 | 3 | 17 |
| | 2 | 17 | 8 | 27 |
| Karnataka | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Total* | 281 | 150 | 286 | 717 |
The tables above speak for themselves. A little over six months into the year and the fatalities indicate that the figure this year could well increase those of last year substantially.
The Maoists’ ideology is hostile to the Indian Constitution and democracy and seeks to replace this with an extreme left form of government. Inspired by Mao’s thoughts leftist guerrillas exploit the economic and governance grievances of the tribals and use violence and terror to achieve their goals. The main areas of Central India that are affected are Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal and the Maoists speak of a north south Red Corridor from Kathmandu to Andhra Pradesh. Government forces operating in Chhattisgarh have faced serious reverses in recent months indicating simultaneously the growing abilities of the Maoists, and the limited capacities of the state forces to handle this growing menace. Intelligence has been poor, interstate co-ordination slack and there just has not been enough trained specialised counter terror force of any kind that is available for action. There has also been policy confusion in that there seems to be stress on providing economic and social support to the population. There is not enough acceptance of the principle that infrastructure and economic benefits without security are unworkable and security is essential to enable infrastructure and socio-economic benefits to reach the people for whom they are intended. The tendency is to make politically popular gestures but without any certainty that the benefits will actually reach for those it is intended.
· Violence in general and terrorism in particular is the creed of the Maoists and at least 194 districts in 22 states have been variously affected by Left Wing Extremism.
· The Maoists have elaborate plans to co-ordinate their armed struggle with other groups in India in J&K, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur and other parts on NE India.
· They seek a broad United Front with other religious minorities, open and mass organisations among peasants and workers, students and women.
· Maoists also plan to create a peoples’ militia in the villages in the guerrilla zone to prepare for an armed class struggle.
· For this they have urban targets in the infrastructure such as highways, and in the industrial and mineral rich belt of Central India, special economic zones and so on.
· They have been imparting justice, and administering law and order in the remote no go areas in the forests from where civil administration has faded away.
The problem that the Indian state faces is current, vastly spread out and growing. The response it requires is different from the other insurgencies that the state has faced so far. There is no foreign hand, and almost all the arms and ammunition acquired have been stolen from government forces and armouries. The Maoists have established ‘liberated zones’ and it would be futile to launch operations into the free the zones. The casualties to the counter terrorist force as well as the civilians would excessive. They have to be contained first and then inroads made into their strongholds with adequate force. These are projects that have long gestation periods as forces are readied and above all, roads and communications under constant security have to be built for troops and support to move in. Since the problem is spread over several states, there is need to have instant and real time co-ordination, modernised police stations and civil-military co-ordination under a unified command in each state.
What is needed is a new policy formulation and strategy that incorporates the following broadly:-
First, we need to reinvent our police forces, one of the most neglected, underpaid, overworked and maligned forces in the country. Its faith and pride in itself has to be restored and when its ability to interact with the population is recreated, intelligence will flow. For decades this country has talked of police reforms but nothing seems to move.
Second, the police must be equipped and trained in the latest techniques, an aspect that gets neglected due to shortage of manpower, funds and political indifference. It is possible that in some cases and some states there would be need to incorporate expertise from the armed forces for training police in counter-insurgency techniques.
Third, mere deterrence and destruction of the insurgent force is not enough. It is the rebuilding of the destroyed lives and shattered economy and the end of exploitation which will be key. This must happen more or less simultaneously with the overpowering of the insurgency. If this does not happen, the insurgency will resurrect. What is needed is a multifaceted approach that involves all arms of the government, especially the infrastructure and economic agencies of education, health, agriculture and communications that extend beyond just the law and order aspect.
Fourth, since the insurgents say they are fighting a peoples’ war, we should take this to them by involving the people on the side of the government — the media being the most important component in this battle. Media coverage is oxygen to the terrorists, whether or not a particular operation succeeds. Creation of fear is also terrorist/insurgent victory; reports of massive deployment massages the insurgents’ ego and they will seek to replicate their acts. Media management is, therefore, important for they must report but not reveal.
Fifth, what is needed is a functioning National Counter Terrorism Centre to coordinate the anti-insurgency operations.
Sixth, terrorism went global decades ago. Unless there is close international co-operation among the international intelligence agencies and counter-terrorist establishments across national frontiers, it will be impossible to counter the threat effectively. There has to be a common definition of the word terrorism before any effective co-operation can emerge. Co-operation has been below the desired levels because of usually short term political and perceived strategic considerations which have only helped the terrorists/insurgents.
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