Too many balls up in the air

For some weeks it appeared that a war in, and about, Syria was likely. The US president was having to live up to his red lines in Syria even though no one seriously believed that an America pulling out of Afghanistan was going to put its boots on the ground in Syria. Then came the move from arch rival Putin that gave the US a way out of having to implement the threat. Ultimately, one was left with the rather quaint declaration from US secretary of state John Kerry about the possibility of an ‘unbelievably small’ attack. Now the UN Security Council has voted unanimously on a resolution to destroy Syria's chemical weapons and accord greater access to inspectors.

The US is the sole acknowledged superpower in the world with the largest economy; it has the biggest defence budget with 700 military bases across the globe and the only country that divides the rest of the world into military commands. Yet, every now and then, it feels insecure about its status. Consequently, there seems to be a repetitive desire to pick on a weaker non-nuclear country, slap it around, create a mess and then retreat to its own fortress. Once safely home, it puts on its earphones, listens to every phone call in the world, reads every mail, anything else on the Internet, manufactures new miniaturised and lethal weapons and glowers at the rest of us. US exceptionalism and unilateralism still rule even though the limitations of military power are increasingly evident.

The failure to get a consensus at the G20 meet on the US position and a lukewarm response at home, made Obama rethink. In all this din, it is often forgotten that the Syrian government had first complained in March 2013 that some insurgents had used chemical weapons in Aleppo and sought UN investigation. This was postponed on some pretext or the other. UN inspectors arrived on August 17 and sarin was used on August 21. Whatever else Bashar al-Assad might be, he was certainly not going to use the gas when UN inspectors were in Damascus. The US insistence that the only verification required was whether or not gas was used and not who used the gas makes the ploy all the more suspect.

The truth about Syria is now blurred and depends on what a person has read last. The situation is going to remain messy with so many crossed wires and short circuits that could blow up the entire region even though a truce of sorts operates. The interests are so deeply conflicted that it takes a while understanding where each of the players is positioned. The US disapproves of Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad, and al Qaeda but supports Israel, Syrian rebels, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. The Syrian rebels are supported by Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Turkey and al Qaeda, apart from the US and Israel. Al Qaeda hates the US, Israel, Assad, the Saudis and the Gulf states. Iran hates the Syrian rebels, Israel, Saudis, the US and the Emirates but supports Hamas, Lebanese Shias and Assad. Israel dislikes Assad, Hamas, al Qaeda and Iran but supports Syrian rebels. Qatar dislikes General al Sisi of Egypt, Assad and supports the Muslim Brotherhood and Syrian rebels. Turkey also dislikes Sisi and Assad and supports both the Muslim Brotherhood and Syrian rebels. The Russians dislike the Syrian rebels, support Assad and Iran. Additionally, the US, it seems is confused about who to support in Egypt — General al Sisi or the Brotherhood. Sisi along with the Saudis and the Emirates dislike the Brotherhood.

China supports Iran and Syria but would not be willing to annoy the Saudis or the Emirates unlike the Russians who seem to be playing for higher stakes and higher energy prices with a more aggressive role in the region. The threat of retaliation by al Qaeda affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra against any strike, limited or otherwise was very real with the possibility that Iran might intervene. A regional conflict out of control would have sent oil and gas prices through the roof and the battered Indian economy further.

Sarin gas was not the main issue in the conflict. These weapons had been used in the past by America’s ally, Iraq against Iran. Syria’s crime has been that it has remained close to Iran. Syria is also about isolating Iran and is one of those countries left where the West can still practise its principles of protecting human rights through a show of force. North Korea, Pakistan and Iran are no go areas for such adventurism because the first two possess nuclear weapons and the last is just too difficult to handle directly.

Conventional wisdom is that when a deadline is postponed, the threat is off. There will now be the usual spin to this and once again the US and its friends will declare victory and walk away, especially after the agreement. President Putin’s homily in the New York Times cautioned against a strike in Syria fearing that this would spread beyond Syria where the battle is not for democracy but between a government and an opposition that is mostly religious and extremist. Just about now, we also hear that the CIA has begun supply of weapons for Syrian rebels.

The West has no designated heir apparent to replace Bashar al-Assad in case efforts to remove him succeed. The main contenders could be the rebels and al Qaeda affiliates and that cannot be a comforting thought. This could lead to an enlarged conflict with Syria, Iraq and Iran conceivably on one side against Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE on the other. Whatever the immediate outcome of the Syria crisis, normally Iran would have been more determined than ever to speed its uranium enrichment, seeing how Syria has been subjected to US bullying. However, it now appears that there are some early signs of a thaw between the US and Iran after several positive signals from President Rouhani.

For the moment it may be quiet but uncertainties remain and Israeli perceptions will be an important factor.

Source : Hindustan Times , 29th September 2013

Can Pakistan reinvent itself?

Before meeting Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in New York next Sunday September 29, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would have met President Obama and the two would have discussed Pakistan among other issues. The Indian leader may well be on his last visit in his current assignment while his Pakistani counterpart is still learning to cope with new problems of office. When they meet, both prime ministers will undoubtedly assert their desire for improved relations despite the latest terrorist attack in Samba which killed an officer of the Indian Army and two other soldiers. However, neither jingoist rhetoric nor sentimental gibberish can deliver peace. Only cold pursuit of the national interest can succeed and until two quarreling neighbours get this right there will be no closure. Have India and Pakistan got this right and at the same time?

Prime Minister Sharif has the obvious problems of a floundering economy, a foreign currency crunch and an ever growing terrorism that has spread all over the country except that the Punjab is quiet, for the present. In fact, in the period up to September 24, Pakistan had over 350 terror attacks, big and small with Pakistanis killing more than 1100 Pakistanis. The country faces multi-faceted Sunni Islamic terrorism of various hues exhibiting a new level of intolerance against other religions or Islamic sects. There has been tension on the LOC but fortunately has not escalated beyond local exchanges.

Nawaz has still to find an equation with the power that matters, the Army, which is expected to see General Ashfaq Kayani end his extended tenure of office in November. It is unlikely that the Pakistan Army will cede ground at a time when there will be uncertainties in Afghanistan and continuing suspicions about India generally and more specifically, in the unfolding Afghan situation. Supremacy over the Army is thus still a distant dream for Pakistan’s political leaders and this will remain a limiting factor in any India-Pakistan dialogue.

Nawaz meanwhile must select Kayani’s successor and choose either on the basis of seniority which could mean Lt General Haroon Aslam or Lt. General Rashad Masood , currently CGS and conceivably Kayani’s preference or go down the list in which case Lt. Gen Tariq Khan currently GOC 1 Corps at Mangla emerges the strongest candidate. His acolytes describe him as a hard task master who leads from the front with wide military experience and could be Nawaz’s choice.
The Americans would like that too especially at this juncture when they are preparing to leave Afghanistan. Some say that General Khan’s daughter is married to his nephew who lives in the US and whose mother is a born American. If true, the daughter’s sasural is American. However, Nawaz would be haunted by his disastrous experience the last time when he chose Pervez Musharraf. The other possibility could be another year for General Kayani. This too would please the US and there could be rewards for this statesmanship.

India cannot run away from geography. This means having to deal with one’s neighbours. In the India-Pakistan context case, the lesson for India has been that a country cannot fight terror only with good intentions and grand statements. A state is a state that demonstrably protects itself and its people at all times. No other state will protect our interests if we are not willing or able to do this.
Our effort to deal with the terrorist threat has been erratic. It swings from empty jingoism, mostly on TV, or statements promising the fire next time to peace overtures and concessions that are not reciprocated. We get confused with Pakistan’s seeming rationality in an irrational stance that threatens nuclear war at the first opportunity and answer it with our irrationality with a seemingly rational stance which offers peace based on the hope of good behaviour.

The political psychology of our leaders is defensive and takes great moralistic pride in saying we have never attacked any other country. Thus good wars are defensive wars fought on our soil. This is flawed and defeatist. Our Armed Forces and security agencies must be encouraged to be able to take the war to enemy territory, in pre-emption if necessary but usually in retaliation. For this, they need a doctrine backed by means and political will.

For Pakistan, the lesson is that supporting terror mixed with religion as an instrument of foreign policy is a deeply flawed weapon. From its early days, Pakistan, fearful of a stronger India, sought security in excessive militarism that led over time to militancy, later religious militancy that eventually turned inwards. This has spread cancer within the body politic of the nation from which a return to normalcy is never easy. Pakistan needs reinvention that only Pakistanis themselves can do. So, reinvention includes redefining identity away from a radical sectarian Islamic one and readjustment to realities of geography, history and culture. Pakistan also cannot escape from geography which is Indo-Gangetic, not Arab and where India happens to be the larger country. It will stay like that.

Today’s cold reality is that as the constant transgressor, it is up to Pakistan now to show faith and rethink. India cannot be seen to move forward without some visible irreversible forward movement by Pakistan on terrorism aimed at India, including action against the 26/11 perpetrators.
Together India and Pakistan can achieve their own destinies. Separately, India still can but Pakistan cannot. If Pakistan is unable to reinvent itself, the fear is that it will get reconfigured. For the moment there does not seem to be any possibility of this reinvention happening. Instead, Pakistan’s military and jihadi leaders are getting ready for a multi-front jihadi war, with India and Afghanistan and with its own jihadis the TTP along with nationalists in Balochistan.

Unfortunately, Pakistan’s unfolding tragedy is that for every sane and brave Pakistani patriot who sees and writes about what is happening there are ten bigots who will want to silence him or her. Patriotism to Pakistan is defined in harsh and very narrow Islamic terminology and only loyalty to this extremist creed is accepted as loyalty to the country. Unable to evolve a coherent policy on tackling the jihadi terrorist threat, recourse is invariably to dangerous denial by the authorities. Repeated attacks on Christians, Hazara Shias that kill them in scores and brutal killings of Baloch nationalists throughout the year have been reported. The government is unable to control the TTP and vacillates between overtures to them or talks of overpowering them.

Jihad, under the cover of a nuclear umbrella, may have been useful options for Pakistan in its policy towards India and the US but this obviously has diminishing marginal returns. Once the US has left Afghanistan, these very issues will become millstones around Pakistan. This is the ultimate result of Pakistan’s outlaw policies of blackmailing the international community and simultaneously pushing its own people towards obscurantist beliefs in the 21st century.

For America, Pakistan has been the dearly beloved enemy. The US assisted Pakistan in the hope that it will behave according to US interests and Pakistan misbehaved knowing that the US will assist Pakistan in trying to make it behave. This game has been going on for decades and Pakistan has won each time in a manner of speaking. Actually, the gains were essentially restricted to the ruling elite who benefited throughout from American largesse. This has had a devastating effect on the state itself and the people.

All is not very certain in the Indian political scene as we get into the pre-election mould, with grand promises by political aspirants, bitter battles and a faltering economy. This is still far better than the system Pakistan’s leaders have evolved for their people and Nawaz has to tackle his internal demons before he can secure an India-Pakistan normalcy. However, for us to assume that concessions to the political establishment in Pakistan will help strengthen democratic processes in that country is monumental folly. We have no such influence in Pakistan. Only Pakistanis can help themselves once they understand and accept the advantages of peace with India. It does not have to be over weaning cordiality, just normal relations for normal interactions will do nicely.

So, while talking to a neighbour is often unavoidable, a solution is not necessarily attainable. At the same time, Nawaz has to choose between applying the seniority principle, accepting the recommendation of General Kayani or doing a deep selection. It is only after this, that a new equation between the politician and the soldier can be worked out, by which time it could be election time in India.

Source : Niti central, 26th September 2013

How to lose a winning game

I learnt some of my economics from luminaries like Jagdish Bhagwati and Amartya Sen and no wonder my economics remained befuddled. However, it did not require a post-graduation in economics to understand that I could only spend what I earned and if I wanted to earn more, I produced more, worked harder, saved and invested. Alternatively, one could beg, borrow or worse, steal. In each case, you had to pay for it. We seem to have forgotten this basic lesson of life.
The citizen’s hard earned money has been taken away with no other source of income left, in pursuit of grandiose schemes that he does not understand nor does he agree with. Money is borrowed from the public and more will be borrowed to pay back previous loans, or in other times, simply by printing more notes. It is forgotten that if this common Indian does not earn the government cannot collect revenue from him. If he cannot earn, he simply dies.

This is what we are doing to our economy -- simply shutting it down. From a robust 8% rate of growth we have reduced ourselves to less than 5% and slowing, through our special genius for spoiling a winning game. The rate of growth, according to some economists, will hit a low of less than 3%. Vegetable prices have risen by 48% and, surreptitiously, the cost of electricity has been pushed so that my electricity bill is up 40% from two months ago. And this happened before the just announced 10% pension DA hike. The new land acquisition bill will knock off 2 % of our GDP. The price of petrol rises regularly, our energy import bill accounts for 80% of our foreign exchange earnings and we import 90 % of our defence needs.

We were told that our young population was going to be our strength for the future, that this demographic dividend was of such a magnitude and advantage that it would not happen again for another 300 years. Yet what did we do? Our populist policies have taken away their future, and that of the entire nation. Our priorities should have been to create skills and employment for the 500 million young by the next decade, where each individual is an asset to society, contributes meaning- fully to the net national product and to his own self-respect. Instead, our policy seems to be keep people perpetually on the dole and create additional burdens to society. Where will the money for all these pre-election entitlement schemes come from when the economy is declining and government revenue too will decline? How will this government or successive governments provide for the jobless hopefuls on the street with their dreams soured?

Our problem has been we never corrected the faults and punished the defaulters. Instead, if there was a coal mining scam, we stopped the mining of coal. If there was a scam in the mining of iron ore, we stopped exporting iron ore and starved both our power and steel industries. Instead, we began importing both coal and iron ore. If there was a defence scam, we stopped buying defence equipment and endangered our security. We perfected decision-making to taking no decisions.

Incidentally, where is our corporate sector in all this, the shining example of our success story, which has not been wary of bending the law or subverting it when a quick buck was to be made but which has promised to lead us to our El Dorado? Scared of investing in their country of birth because of the fickleness of the politician, the capricious nature of its laws where they can be taxed with retrospective effect and the whims of the all powerful bureaucrat, they seek to invest abroad. This is hardly the best advertisement for greater foreign investment in India.

A government cannot legislate the poor into prosperity but can legislate the wealthy out of prosperity; it cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. The greatest danger is when half of the people begin to believe that they need not work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half believes that there is no point in working because somebody else is going to get what they work for. That is the beginning of the end.

From being a soney ki chidia that we used to call ourselves, we now have a brass albatross around our neck.

Source : Mid Day , 21st September 2013

The reel spy world

It has been a good year for the Intelligence world, courtesy Bollywood. First there was Kahani last year; then came Vishwaroopam, Ek Tha Tiger, D-Day and now Madras Cafe, in rapid succession. Kahani was excellent, Vidya Balan was superb and the story kept you engrossed till the end.
Ek tha Tiger was more sitting through that rather unwatchable James Bond movie, Quantum of Solace, with songs thrown in. It is somewhat like an advert join the R&AW and see the world from Turkey to South Africa with mostly implausible escapist stuff that was popular in the 1960s but fun for most of us, anyway. This was a time-pass story where our man came out smelling of roses having won the heart of a Pakistani ISI girl. That was the icing on the cake.

Madras Cafe alternates between the Tamil insurgency in Sri Lanka and the assassination of a former prime minister

 

Vishwaroopam was better, with an intricate plot and the R&AW agents cover story as a Kathak dance instructor in New York was a bit novel for some but hopefully everyone appreciated the kind of things intelligence officers have to endure for king and country! This was a film definitely worth watching as it helped enhance one’s feel good factor. It is believed that there will be a sequel to this and one did not quite understand the Tamil Nadu angst about this film.

It got even better with the next film, D-Day. One reason perhaps was that this was based on a well known fact that was thinly disguised in the film — the hunt for Dawood Ibrahim. As always Irrfan Khan’s acting as the R&AW deep cover agent in Karachi and his typical understated power was evident. The pace was fast and it held one’s interest till the end even when there was a tragedy in the triumph and the loneliness of an agent on the run. The death of an agent in an enemy country is a particularly poignant moment for his handler because he cannot ever acknowledge the agent’s contribution.

The last one on the list, Madras Cafe, has perhaps been the best, once again because it is based on some historical facts and an imaginative use of some incidents. The film alternates between the Tamil insurgency in Sri Lanka and the assassination of a former prime minister. One can always quibble about some detail but the essential point in the film are the tensions and anxieties in the lives of intelligence officers at headquarters or those assigned to a mission and the ultimate nightmare of an intelligence agency — the mole.

When the lead character, Vikram Singh (nice ring to that!) explained to his frightened wife about the protocol for wives in his trade, it touched a chord. This protocol was the rule of not telling one’s wife, children and families about the nature and dangers of assignments for their own safety. A life of several passports and several identities, a life that has its adrenaline moments but can be boring, repetitive, frustrating and heartbreaking far away from fast cars and faster women. The sadness of a personal tragedy and professional disappointment has been portrayed with sensitivity.

There is excitement in the film as the communications surveillance begins to deliver results. It is of course not so simple. In real life it can be excruciatingly dull and boring listening to intercepts, the crackle and the noise that goes for sound, the frustration of the link snapped, the questions not answered, the riddle not solved. But the search must go on. Those were the days of only telephone and wireless intercepts.

Today we have the wide universe of the Internet, smartphones, e-mail, social media and whatever else. Imagine now a terrorist using all these channels for the same message sent in parts and in code. Catch him if you can.

All four films have a larger than life image of the main character but alas this is only the reel image, satisfying though it might be. There is more of Sean Connery or Matt Daemon in our films and not of Alec Guinness or Richard Burton. We have some way to go to catch up with classic espionage stories as in the BBC serial Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and films like The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, Our Man in Havana and The Quiet American. These were based on novels written by master storytellers like John le Carre and Graham Greene, both having lived and worked in the intelligence world.

Source : Mid Day ,5th September 2013