An Unstable Neighbour

India and Pakistan are currently going through their usual mood cycle of some hope and more depression. The incidents on the LOC have crowded out other possibilities for the time being, one would say about a year before hope surges again. One talks of a year because it is by then we in India would have completed the formation of a new government which might by then begin dreaming new dreams. In Pakistan, the Prime Minister would have found his equation with the the new Army Chief - really the man who matters when decisions on Pakistan India relations have to be taken. 

Meanwhile, with only 45 days to go, Nawaz has not yet nominated his new Army Chief. He could give General Kayani one more extension, appoint the senior most Lt General Haroon Aslam, agree with General Kayani's choice which is Lt General Rashad Masood or go further down the list to select the much talked of Lt General Tariq Khan. General Kayani has assured the world he will not be seeking an extension but Nawaz has not spoken a word yet.

The Nawaz-ManmohanSingh  meeting in New York last month was always a non-starter, and Hamid Mir's studied indiscretion on TV ensured that there was no one-to-one session between the two Prime Ministers, something which the Pakistan Army echelons did not want to happen. The meeting was in the backdrop of increased LOC violations since June this year including the Keran incident which remains quite a bit of a mystery. There was a message for both Prime Ministers in these escalated intrusions making it difficult for them to discuss anything substantive.

Apart from showing Pakistani aggressiveness in recent months, the spate of intrusions also indicate that some portions of the LOC have become more porous which allow such incidents to occur. This is no longer a case of cross border intrusions. It is low intensity conflict just short of Kayani's possible departure. The reality in Pakistan is that no matter who is the Army Chief inPakistan, the mindset does not change. For India to keep merely blaming Pakistan for these intrusions is not enough as we are supposed to prevent them. Just as merely complaining to other leaders about Pakistani behaviour is not only not enough, it may even be avoidable.  As a major power with international pretensions, we are expected to look after our own security and other national interests and demonstrate this ability.

 It is fair to assume that by escalating tensions on the LOC, Pakistan is looking after its own interests, however much we may portray this to be misguided. It is not yet known exactly how many troops and what military apparatus the US will leave behind in Afghanistan after 2014. Whatever be that final number, the US and ISAF will be progressively less dependent on Pakistan for logistic support after 2014 for its military supplies and withdrawal. The US release of Coalition Support  Funds may be fulfillment of an earlier commitment but the timing, just before Nawaz Sharif lands is the US makes it appear to be an appeasement. The Coalition Support Funds will however, dwindle and the money tap will dry for Pakistan. So also will the US attention shift away to other problems and Pakistan will be less visible on its radar. The latest call by Nawaz Sharif seeking US intervention for solving Kashmir is typical GHQ speak which does not want discussions under the Shimla Agreement.

 Now is the time, therefore, in Pakistani calculations to begin to ratchet the tensions so that the US and others remain involved with the India-Pakistan question as nuclear weapons draw considerable traction in the US. This would keep Pakistan relevant in US calculations and there would not be a repeat of 1990 when the US lost interest in Pakistan. In these perceptions, tension between two nuclear powers has to be minimised, if not eliminated. Besides, the latest (October 7 2013) and detailed Heritage Foundation special report - A New View of Asia: 24 Charts That Show What's at Stake for America. The report speaks of Asia as America's 'New West' instead of the 'Far East'  and lists Pakistan as the second most unstable country in Asia (after Afghanistan). Any additional instability in Pakistan will continue to draw American attention. And hopefully, financial support and military sustenance. Pakistan can be expected not to deny this report but instead want to prove it !

 

20th October 2013