Friday, May 18, 2007

Bear?s back in business

It was Brezhnev’s blunder in Afghanistan that led to the first multi-billion dollar international jehad sponsored by the ‘free world’ out to settle old scores, which had its ultimate ugly trickle-down effects in India. Yet, India had been a treaty ally of the Soviet Union. The treaty had a Cold War relevance to both countries as Nixon’s America and Mao’s China warmed up to each other. But when the Soviet Union fell, India suddenly felt adrift in a Clinton-led world that lacked the vision to be the magnanimous victor and capitalise on this great opportunity. Instead of doing what they had done to Japan and Germany after World War II, the Americans continued to try and grind the Russians down to nothingness. Unfortunately, narcissism on a national scale can make nations forget that a people who resisted Hitler’s German army for nearly 900 days in Leningrad or defeated them in the bloodiest battle in history in Stalingrad were bound to rise again. All they needed was a leader. And Vladimir Putin is that leader.
In the last seven years, he has brought Russia back into international reckoning. Today, the Russians feel sufficiently confident to be able to cancel their production sharing agreement with Royal Dutch Shell in Sakhalin-2 and, Gazprom, the Russian energy giant has taken over. There is steely determination in approach, bordering on ruthlessness at times. Chechnya and the Dubrovka theatre hostage episode are indications of the latter; the manner in which the vast energy resources have been used as a strategic and tactical weapon is a sign of a single-minded desire — to protect Russia’s national interests.
The various tulip and orange revolutions in Russia’s neighbourhood to bring democracy to these countries, quite apparently encouraged by Washington, invited retaliatory action by Moscow. Ukraine flirted with the US and had to pay a price when its gas spigots were switched off last winter. Much of Europe too shivered, more in fright than in the cold. Uzbekistan, the most populous Central Asian State, has joined the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Community that is a customs union comprising Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Belarus was once a faithful Soviet satellite and then Russia’s loyal friend but it dared to step out of line and Putin came down hard to cut off its gas supplies.
Alarmed at the eastward expansion of Nato and US interests in acquiring energy and strategic reserves in Central Asia, the Russians got together with the Chinese to counter US advances. The Russian-Chinese relationship is marked by competition for resources and influence and cooperation against western inroads. The border issue is now settled and there have been military exercises and increased Russian arms sales and energy commitments to China. Forty-five per cent of Russian arms sales have been to China, at the rate of $ 2 billion annually. The first-ever joint military exercise of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) will be held in 2007 in Russia’s Volga-Urals area. Heads of State of participating countries are expected to witness the exercise. SCO observer countries — Iran, Pakistan and India — could also be invited.
There was a time during Boris Yeltsin’s presidency when the impoverished Russians sold their giant companies to eager carpet-baggers in a desperate bid to stay afloat. It was Putin who decided to consolidate Russia’s vital assets of energy and strategic minerals. Gazprom, which today is estimated to control a third of the world’s natural gas reserves, plans to become the world’s largest energy company, once it diversifies into oil production.
The argument is very simple — Western companies will not get access to Russian energy resources unless Russian industry gets similar
Source : Hindustan Times 23rd feb 2007

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