There are storm clouds gathering over the horizon in the Persian Gulf and the drums of war beat louder each passing day.
A wounded American presidency, torn between the need to salvage lost pride and the desire to control the world, glowers at a defiant Iran in the hope that the Iranians will blink.
The rest of us must wait with bated breath for the debris from another costly and destructive war to fall upon us. And no one has the magic formula to stop this inexorable march of folly towards the next episode of 'shock and awe'.
Yet, there are other analysts in the West who do not see this as a war against terror at all, or a war against WMDs, or for democracy and liberty. They see it as a battle for control of oil and, therefore, see it as a victory for Big Oil.
Meanwhile, the Persian Gulf is overcrowded with the US armada of two carrier fleets bristling with state-of-the-art killing machines, making this the largest concentration of US naval forces in history.
A wounded US presidency, torn between the need to salvage lost pride and the desire to control the world, glowers at a defiant Iran Patriot missiles have been deployed to defend friendly and 'moderate' Sunni regimes like the UAE and Saudi Arabia against Iranian attacks.
After spending half a trillion dollars, resulting in the deaths of countless Iraqis and more than 3,000 American soldiers, the US ended up making Iran the primary power in the Gulf.
It must now find ways to overturn this unintended consequence of a wrong war. Therefore, a casus belli is required. Iran is now being accused of meddling in Iraq, supporting Shia insurgents with arms and funds. The Iranian leadership is demonised and being provoked to react.
Preparations for an eventual assault on Iran required other arrangements. It is commonly believed that Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld left because he was too hard on Iraq.
Actually, he had to go because he wanted a rethink of policy. Chief of Intelligence John Negroponte would not, or could not, produce intelligence to confirm Iran was enriching weapons-grade uranium. That was blasphemy and he had to go.
Centcom Generals who objected to escalation in Iraq were sidelined and Admiral William Fallon from the Pacific Command has been brought in to take on what is going to be primarily a naval and aerial battle against Iran, for the protection of sea lanes.
The fact that Iraq had become a quagmire could not be admitted, and the Iraq Study Group established last year was to find a way out to make a defeat seem a victory. But when the report suggested a phased withdrawal, it was discarded.
Instead, there had to be a 'surge' of American forces in Iraq. It is strange that 20,000 additional troops will help in controlling a majority Shia insurgency when 150,000 troops could not control a minority Sunni insurgency.
It is more likely that these troops are only meant to protect American interests in Baghdad’s Green Zone against a possible Iranian retaliation.
Understandably, there has been considerable obfuscation about the US’s intentions, varying from 'all options are on the table' to 'we will not attack Iran'.
This does not mean that the US will not attack in defence of its interests in the region, the definition of which can be fairly flexible.
A wounded American presidency, torn between the need to salvage lost pride and the desire to control the world, glowers at a defiant Iran in the hope that the Iranians will blink.
The rest of us must wait with bated breath for the debris from another costly and destructive war to fall upon us. And no one has the magic formula to stop this inexorable march of folly towards the next episode of 'shock and awe'.
Yet, there are other analysts in the West who do not see this as a war against terror at all, or a war against WMDs, or for democracy and liberty. They see it as a battle for control of oil and, therefore, see it as a victory for Big Oil.
Meanwhile, the Persian Gulf is overcrowded with the US armada of two carrier fleets bristling with state-of-the-art killing machines, making this the largest concentration of US naval forces in history.
A wounded US presidency, torn between the need to salvage lost pride and the desire to control the world, glowers at a defiant Iran Patriot missiles have been deployed to defend friendly and 'moderate' Sunni regimes like the UAE and Saudi Arabia against Iranian attacks.
After spending half a trillion dollars, resulting in the deaths of countless Iraqis and more than 3,000 American soldiers, the US ended up making Iran the primary power in the Gulf.
It must now find ways to overturn this unintended consequence of a wrong war. Therefore, a casus belli is required. Iran is now being accused of meddling in Iraq, supporting Shia insurgents with arms and funds. The Iranian leadership is demonised and being provoked to react.
Preparations for an eventual assault on Iran required other arrangements. It is commonly believed that Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld left because he was too hard on Iraq.
Actually, he had to go because he wanted a rethink of policy. Chief of Intelligence John Negroponte would not, or could not, produce intelligence to confirm Iran was enriching weapons-grade uranium. That was blasphemy and he had to go.
Centcom Generals who objected to escalation in Iraq were sidelined and Admiral William Fallon from the Pacific Command has been brought in to take on what is going to be primarily a naval and aerial battle against Iran, for the protection of sea lanes.
The fact that Iraq had become a quagmire could not be admitted, and the Iraq Study Group established last year was to find a way out to make a defeat seem a victory. But when the report suggested a phased withdrawal, it was discarded.
Instead, there had to be a 'surge' of American forces in Iraq. It is strange that 20,000 additional troops will help in controlling a majority Shia insurgency when 150,000 troops could not control a minority Sunni insurgency.
It is more likely that these troops are only meant to protect American interests in Baghdad’s Green Zone against a possible Iranian retaliation.
Understandably, there has been considerable obfuscation about the US’s intentions, varying from 'all options are on the table' to 'we will not attack Iran'.
This does not mean that the US will not attack in defence of its interests in the region, the definition of which can be fairly flexible.
Source : Hindustan Times 14th feb 2007
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