Great game Theory

The growing unease in Afghanistan is likely to have a ripple effect on India

NEARLY FOUR years after the “Liberation”, freedom barely endures in Afghanistan. The Taliban have crept back from Pakistan, so have the Al Qaeda remnants, and Gulbudin Hikmetyar, the Pathan, now operates from bases close to or inside Pakistan. Nothing really has changed in Afghanistan, except that the President is seen in his elegant robes escorted by Dyncorp men because he cannot still trust his own men. Meddlesome neighbours and their own rivalries, are considered to be a part of the problem in Afghanistan, although the present saviours are not exactly home grown either. The opium trade flourishes, so do the warlords, who rake in the profits from the major economic activity of this unfortunate country. Meanwhile, elections to usher in a wonderful era of democracy, the dream of every Afghan, will be held soon regardless of the violence that is preceding the elections and will continue in the aftermath.

The Taliban having re-emerged from hiding in Pakistan – this was noticeable in 2004 when observers like Kathy Gannon talked of growing chaos and 2005 became the most violent year in the last three years and more that a thousand have been killed so far this year. Taliban activity has been most noticeable in recent months in Zabul, Kandahar, Paktia and Uruzgan. They are well armed, with funds and men, able to reinforce from Pakistan with ease.

Afghan authorities estimate that the Taliban, Al Qaeda and Hikmetyar’s men are responsible for 70% of the attacks. The tactics have been to attack government establishments, scare away aid agencies and NGOs to leave the provinces ungovernable; kidnappings are finely tuned so that they provide a source of revenue and do not drive away all the foreigners. Quite often this leads to angry exchanges between the Afghans and the Pakistanis but nothing stops. Taliban have spared election establishments and civilians -- so far, and the Taliban deny accusations that they are out to disrupt the elections. Possibly they seek a political role for themselves.

After the parliamentary elections, Hamid Karzai -- never really a representative Pashtun -- nor ever fully accepted by the Tajiks or the Uzbeks or the Hazaras, will have even less of a hold on the Pashtun majority and the rest of the country. The nominated advisers, many of whom came from their swanky offices in Europe and the US, to rebuild their country – for a price of course -- will have to be replaced by elected representatives. It would be unrealistic to expect that one election that will lead to a modern, democratic Afghan society.

It is unfair to criticise Karzai and to sneer at him as the Mayor of Kabul. The truth is that previous rulers of Kabul have similarly been unable to control the unruly countryside. It is a tough ask for Karzai. He needs the US to stay to shore him up but a prolonged stay will hurt his credibility and arouse Islamic anger against him. Karzai also fervently hopes that the Americans do not abandon him because that would be open season for the Pakistanis.

Pakistan sees itself today as a nuclear armed, militarily strong player in the Muslim world sitting in an area vital for Western and global interests. The Pakis have not forgotten that it was Afghanistan that voted against their entry in to the UN in 1947 and had questioned the sanctity of the Durand Line. Pakistan would use the Taliban to extend its influence in Afghanistan and have a role in Central Asia. Since India must be kept out, Pakistan is hardly likely to help India access Central Asia’s oil and gas reserves.

Having convinced the Americans of their sincerity in the war against terror, the Pakistanis are busy consolidating their hold in the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan. Students from Pakistan studying in Kandahar seems a very thinly disguised cover but who cares. It will be easy for Pakistan to revive its old intelligence and jihadi links. The Americans have a problem. They realise that full Pakistani co-operation needed to flush out the Taliban and anti-Islamic elements from the region, will never be available. Yet again, Pakistan is being given freedom to handle the Pashtuns in the hope that this would help the US curb the growing Chinese and Russian influence in Central Asia. The same old story -- Pakistan’s flexible USP and a US policy based on hope.

Americans would be anxious to reduce their full time deployment in Afghanistan, yet cannot leave the place in charge of others except maybe with NATO because Afghanistan lies on prospective routes for pumping gas to the Arabian Sea, avoiding both Russia and Iran. Pakistan may be anxious to see the Americans leave so that Afghanistan is open territory for them whereas the Indians want that Afghanistan or its neighbouring states – Uzbekistan, Kyrgystan and Tajikistan - do not come under the sway of Wahhabi Islam. Pakistan has watched Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Afghanistan with a microscope and seen plenty of devils but they need not worry. Karzai was at pains to describe Pakistanis as brothers while the Indians were friends. Presumably, this message was not lost on the Indians visiting the country after nearly 30 years –having been excluded from the playing fields while the Super Powers played buzkashi.

Whatever the election results, Afghanistan will continue to be the world’s major provider of heroin, having a destabilising influence on Pakistan and in turn destabilised by Pakistan-based Taliban, and if this goes too far, it will become the base for Islamic terrorists once again. Pakistan will not hesitate to use its conveyor belt jehadis operating from the madrassa-factories or the terror schools that dot the countryside.

Afghanistan provides 75-85% of the poppies that are eventually converted into heroin for export to Europe and Asia. The original target of eradicating 37,000 acres was scaled down to 17,000 but finally by May 2005 only 250 acres were destroyed. The claim that 30% of the poppy had been destroyed looks flimsy considering that opium cultivation increased from 150,000 acres in 2003 to 510,000 acres in 2004.The war against opium has run aground.

Poppy eradication is an exercise linked to local chieftains who have traditionally run things in their own areas, very much their own way, away from the central authority. An overbearing centre would only provoke a civil war and Karzai will be tolerated so long as he does not meddle around too much. This applies to opium cultivation equally. The realities of poppy economy are thus linked with Afghanistan’s power politics. This massive and unchallenged drug production, about half of the economy, threatens Afghanistan’s very existence.

The most likely future for Afghanistan is growing instability that Western powers will try, unsuccessfully, to control and eventually leave. If indeed Afghanistan goes down, then it will not be a neat implosion. It could affect the periphery, including Pakistan, especially in FATA and the NWFP. Or will other powers move in fearing precisely this ripple effect? Will this be only Pakistan or will there be Iran and Russia? And what of China?

India cannot allow Afghanistan to go down nor let Taliban re-establish. If they do, it will have repercussions in Jammu and Kashmir. India must build on its present soft image in the country and seek a greater strategic and tactical role. The US will have to be convinced, in its own interests, that it must cease being indulgent towards Pakistan actions in Afghanistan.

Source : Hindustan times 14th Sept 2005