A vacuum abhors pakistan

The assassination attempt on the Karachi Corps Commander, Lt. General Ahsan Saleem Hayat, on June 10 was really a message meant for Pervez Musharraf. Hayat comes from a middle-class Karachi family and is not known for any political ambitions. He is also one of those close to Musharraf and generally expected to get elevated in the next reshuffle at the top. The planning and coordination of the attack was professional. It took place about 500 metres off the US consulate and close to the Iranian consulate, both in high- security areas.
A gun attack and a bomb attack in rapid succession meant that the assassins were waiting for the general. The attackers were marksmen of some proficiency, not perturbed that they were carrying out this attack in a high-security area in broad daylight, had advance information about their quarry’s movements, and were able to escape with ease. The fact that the Madrid bombers also used a cellphone to detonate the bomb may only be a coincidence. But it does indicate the technical sophistication of the assassins. At the end of the short ten-minute exchange of fire, Hayat escaped unharmed. But then, as the IRA once told Margaret Thatcher after she escaped an assassination bid, we have to be lucky once, you have to be lucky all the time.
What is not known is whether this was the handiwork of Islamic elements within the army or those holding out in South Waziristan and beyond, or whether it was in collusion with each other. It is known that the first Wana operation was botched and there were many reluctant Pakistani soldiers and officers. It is also known that those who planned the two attempts on Musharraf last December included some army officers and suicide bombers. It is also quite clear that the message for the general in Islamabad is that his turnaround on Afghanistan or that in South Waziristan is not acceptable to those who ordered the hit. The attackers have thrown the gauntlet at the Pakistani army.
There is violence stalking the Muslim world today. Karachi has had six attacks — including suicide attacks — since May, both anti-Shia and anti-American in their direction. There is continuing violence in Afghanistan laced with anti-Americanism. There is violence in Iraq, with more Americans and pro-American Iraqis being the victims. This has now reached Saudi Arabia also. Karachi is once again simmering and the fear is that it may relive its earlier reputation of the early and mid-Nineties as the Death City or Killing Fields and later the Terror Capital of Pakistan.
Pakistan is a country where its leadership has been in perpetual denial. It has taught all these years — and, therefore, tried to believe in — its Arab origins from bin Qassim’s days and forgets its Indo-Gangetic origins. Pakistan was created for the protection of Muslims in the subcontinent. But today, it is responsible for killing more Muslims in Afghanistan, India (mostly J&K) and now also in Pakistan than in any non-Muslim country in the world. From its birth, Pakistan has had what Nasra Hassan describes as ‘a martyr culture’. So it was easy to introduce concepts like suicide terrorism among groups that tried to get Musharraf or targeted Shia mosques.
This new form of jehad is a result of home-grown vicious sectarianism merging with the frustrations of a Taliban defeated in Afghanistan. The Sunni outfit, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which owes allegiance to the orthodox Sunni sectarian group, the Sipaha-e-Sahaba and to al-Qaeda, has carried out suicide attacks against Americans in 2002 in Islamabad and in Karachi. Sunni Islamist groups have long suspected that Shias have been providing leads to authorities for the war against terror and the eventual arrest of leading al-Qaeda terrorists like Khalid Mohammed Sheikh. The attacks on Shias are a revenge for this. The killing of Nizamuddin Shamzai of Binori Madrasa, the mentor of the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Taliban, was, in all probability, a Shia reprisal. The circle of violence continues.
Pakistan has now thrown in its heavy artillery, fighter planes and helicopter gunships with precision weapons in an all-out war against the Pashtun tribes in South Waziristan to flush out al-Qaeda and foreign terrorists. This had been preceded by some vicious rocket attacks on military check-posts. There have been heavy casualties among the insurgents and Pakistani troops. This latest and rather desperate offensive follows the earlier botched attempt in March that had left scores of civilians dead and the FATA Pashtuns angry.
Earlier, some tribes like the Mahsoods were willing to help the Pakistani authorities. But this time round, the 4,000-strong lashkar has refused to participate in the assault. The Pakistani army was left alone to battle it out this time. Some para-dropped commandos had either been trapped or taken hostage somewhere in the Shakai area which has been the scene of heavy fighting and a chilling reminder of the fate of the British campaigns to pacify the turbulent frontier. There are still no signs that the latest campaign is going Pakistan’s way as the Wazir tribesmen are proving to be more difficult to handle. On the other hand, Waziristan tribesmen have threatened to take the war to other parts of Pakistan. There was a bomb attack outside the house of a paramilitary officer in Dera, Ismail Khan. And if the attempt on the life of Hayat was a retaliation to events in Waziristan, then Musharraf has a lot to worry about.
The big worry is within the army. The Islamisation that Zia-ul-Haq had introduced has continued. Today groups like the al-Iqwan of Maulana Mohammed Akram Awan operate from Chakwal, close to Rawalpindi. (The Chakwal area has been one of traditional sources of recruits to the Pakistani army). Awan preaches radical Islam, has a large following among the soldiers and a respectable following among the officers. There are reports that some officers disappeared last year and that others refused to take to arms in South Waziristan. One of the mottos of the Pakistan Special Services Group to which Musharraf belongs is ‘Jehad fisabilillah’ (Jihad in the way of Allah). It is this section of the army that fears that Musharraf may have renounced jehad. One section of opinion (the enlightened and the moderate) in Pakistan blames the army for taking the country down the path of extremism, while another accuses Musharraf of having sold the soul of the army to Mephistopheles by abandoning jehad when he dumped the Taliban.
The Pakistani army, which has arrogated to itself the role of the Defender of the Realm, Protector of the Faith, and the Sole Repository of Patriotism, is fast losing its aura and is largely unable to deliver. The elected politicians having been exiled and all constitutional institutions having been corroded, there is a vacuum which only the likes of the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, al-Iqwan and disgruntled jehadis will fill. The rulers in Pakistan have very few choices and very little time as the country teeters on the edge. Somehow the clock must be put back so that Pakistan can go forward.

Source : Hindustan times 16th June 2004