Only if ......

There has been the Pugwash conference in Nepal where Kashmiris from both sides met, the RAND Corporation paper on solving the India-Pakistan problem and defining a role for USA, the Pakistani Punjab Chief Minister Pervez Elahi has been feted in Patiala and lionised by the Singhs of our Punjab. Perhaps it was forgotten that it was this Choudhry family of Gujrat in Pakistan that supported Sikh terrorists in their campaign in the Eighties. Journalists from both sides of the LOC have been on long visits to each other’s area, there is Aamir Khan in his Mangal Pandey gear being hosted by Imran Khan, we have a lovey-dovey Veer-Zara now in contrast to the heavy nationalism of Gadar, we have retired senior military officers from across being hosted with great bon hommie by our own former brass, and of course, civil servants and politicians busily exchanging stated positions. All this heavy sentimentality will dissipate unless followed by something more abiding, like trade and commerce. Even the gas pipeline occasionally promises to be only a pipe dream.

The mood then seems to be of weepy nostalgia and tinsel dreams, of melodrama and theatrics. The season of jaadu jhappies is upon us. Incidentally, all this backslapping and hugging is among the Punjabis and Kashmiris; where are the Kabuliwalas, the Baloch, the Sindhis and the Mohajirs? Even so, all this hectic activity leaves one breathless with the pace and the anticipation. Almost as if peace is about to breakout.

Peace and liberty (peace for the Indians and liberty for the Pakistanis) are undoubtedly laudable objectives; many powers in the world have fought and still fight, brutal wars to impose their own versions of peace and liberty. But the picture of Neville Chamberlain and his umbrella was a metaphor for appeasement before the Second World War that India and Indians must not forget. More so when India has no reason to appease and mollify. India has lived with a situation for many years and withstood everything that was thrown at it. The state of India proved more resilient than was imagined. It has cost India the loss of lives of thousands of men in uniform and innocent men, women and children and an enormous amount of money. There has been a financial burden on India; but it is Pakistan which has paid an enormous economic price for its adventurism born of a desire to seek equality with India and will continue to pay.

The blow back then, is in Pakistan. The concentration on jehad and military rule has cost that country economically, has damaged its civil society, irreparably hurt generations of bright young men and women who have had to go without a reasonable education or hope for a respectable employment opportunity in a country where science and humanities have been subverted to Islamic teachings. The country now lives perpetually on the dole and handouts from the IMF and loans; there is no industry worth the name.

With a burgeoning population there are greater chances for unrest and further (Islamic) radicalisation. There was a time when the jehadis and the fundamentalists were the fringe elements and the civil society of Lahore and Karachi was the mainstream. The fear is that this may not be so any more. It is the civil society that has increasingly become the fringe and jehadi mindset now the mainstream.

Pakistan is a country that has been run by an untamed warrior class that has always felt that it has been ordained as Protectors of the Realm and Defenders of the Faith. They have been helped by a pliable and self-serving elite consisting of the bureaucracy and judiciary, the feudals of the Punjab, and most of the politicians. The particularly unbending types have been banished from the country. It is well known that retiring officers of the Armed Forces each get 50 acres of agricultural land upon retirement, he also invariably owns residential land in more than one of the major cities and an assured employment in one of the civilian establishments either during their career or upon retirement.

The corporate interests of the Pakistan Army cover almost every activity of the country’s economy. The Pak Army, for instance, runs the Fauji Foundation, established as a charity for retired military personnel. Over time it has become a mammoth organisation with interests in sugar mills, energy, cereals, fertilizers and cement and a number of other industries. It was worth about Rs (Pak) 9000 crores a few years ago and would have grown further since then. Then there is the Army Welfare Trust established during Gen Zia ul-Haq’s dictatorship, deals dabbles and controls in real estate, rice mills, pharmaceutical industries, travel agencies, fish farms, housing schemes, insurance companies and even the Askari Commercial Bank, which has the reputation of being run by a very understanding kind of management many of whom had earlier served in the Bank of Credit and Commerce International. The Trust’s assets are estimated to be about Rs 18000 crores. The Air Force and Navy have similar Foundations – the Shaheen and the Bahria. In addition there is the National Logistics Cell and the Frontier Works Organisation which monopolise government contracts in the transport and construction sectors. Accounting rules are flexible and transfer of funds from the defence budget quite routine. One must not forget the military farms (about 60,000 acres) controlled by the Army. The tenants, many of whom are Christians in the Okara area of the Punjab, are being deprived of their rights and the land parceled off to favourites. There has been repeated trouble in the rural areas but has been quelled each time.

The common joke in Pakistan has been – all countries have an army, but in Pakistan it is the army that has a country. It is more than the honour of the country that is at stake. It is the collective corporate interest of the Armed Forces that is at stake in any arrangement that appears to diminish the role of the Army. A peace deal with India threatens to do precisely that.

It increasingly appears that it is the Pakistan Army that cannot afford to solve the problem and, paradoxically, the longer it lasts the more it hurts that country. Maybe General Musharraf realises this. There is a sense of urgency in his tone, interspersed with some bravado, when he offers various solutions. One has to give him credit for the manner in which he has sold himself as the serious peacemaker to his mentors in the West and to the media there, and by contrast, made India appear as the recalcitrant neighbour. It has also to be remembered that Musharraf has reneged on his promises several times in the past – the latest being the case of his uniform. Given the low level of trust that exists between the two countries, it is possible that this may only be a ploy to buy time and live to fight another day.

It is Pakistan today that would need to sort its problems internally and settle with its neighbours. In its relations with India, having fed its people the solitary diet of Kashmir Banega Pakistan, it is difficult for any leader to backtrack. The only answer for this is for India and Indians to wait it out till Pakistan sorts itself out. India will have to wait till Pakistani leaders figure out what the “Idea of Pakistan” means beyond India-hating. This will happen when Pakistan is democratic and not ruled by dictators. This will take time.

Vikram Sood

Source : Hindustan Times 13th jan 2005