Feeding on Conflict

Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary General, has said that the death toll from small arms “dwarfs that of all other weapons systems, and in most years exceeds the toll of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs. In terms of the carnage they cause, small arms could well be described as weapons of mass destruction – yet there is no global non-proliferation regime to limit their spread.”

Now consider these facts.

There are more than 650 million small weapons in the world today or one for every ten persons and growing at the rate of 7-8 million per year. This includes assault rifles, machine guns, grenade launchers, portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, light mortars, land mines and explosives.

There are 16 billion bullets available or two bullets per man, woman, or child in the world.

More than 500,000 people are killed by these small firearms every year or one every minute.

Nearly 60% of the weapons are in private hands. Men hold most of the weapons and women and girls are victims of homicide, armed violence and degradation.

The world’s most powerful countries, the USA, Russia, China, France and UK account for 90% of the conventional weapons exports.

Between 1999 and 2003, the USA, the UK and France earned more from exports to Latin America, Africa, and Asia than the aid they provided to these regions.

On an average, developing countries spend about US $ 22 billion a year on arms imports. Half of this amount would have been enough to send every child to primary school. Instead 300,000 child soldiers are involved in conflicts all over the world.

Africa has been the worst hit by the spread of small arms. In Sudan, for instance, you could exchange a chicken for an AK-47, a few years ago; in north east Kenya the price was two cows. In June 2003, there were 24 million guns in Iraq, one for every man, and available for US $ 10.

There are about 70-100 million AK-47s that have been produced so far; 7 million American M-16s, and 7 million German G-3s. Assault rifles have a life of 30 to 40 years.

More than 1000 companies located in 98 countries produce these weapons.

Twelve of the world’s biggest arms producing companies are in the United States. The global military procurement industry is worth US $ 800 billion annually – the largest in the world. USA’s share of this market is about US $ 360 billion slightly less than the size of the illicit drugs market that is worth US $ 400 billion. In 2003, the USA exported US $ 741 million worth of small arms and imported about US $ 602 million. There are about 83 to 96 guns per 100 persons in the USA, virtually one per person.

Given the size of the global arms industry, and the US share in this and interests of not only the gun lobby, but of the manufacturers, it is difficult for the arms industry to agree to any curbs. Arms sales abroad help maintain global dominance and there are domestic economic considerations. The West worries that an irresponsible or worse a failed state, usually to be found in Asia, would use a WMD or pass it on to even less reliable but more fundamentalist elements. Yet in the rest of the world, the reality of a death every minute by small arms, does not lead to a commensurate seriousness in imposing restrictions.

It is, therefore, not surprising that at the UN-sponsored Conference on Small Arms and Weapons in July 2001, USA played the spoilsport and wanted the very weapons that caused the most deaths, excluded. The Americans were going to be forcefully unilateralist, even before September 11, 2001.

Pakistan and Afghanistan are the other two countries where lethal firearms were inducted both by Soviet Union and USA. Once the conflict was over every one packed up and left leaving behind one of the most dangerous of the small arms problems. Jehadi groups in Pakistan and warlords in Afghanistan were left extensively equipped with these lethal small arms. So massive was this infusion that it is estimated that there are 5.8 people per gun in Pakistan today. Pakistan has a population of 140 million, which means that there are about 25 million guns in that country. Indian security forces say they have recovered 30,000 AK-47s from the terrorists operating in Jammu and Kashmir. Many more could still be inducted into the region or elsewhere in India.

Those who smuggle contraband of one kind, do not hesitate to diversify their trade. Illicit trade in guns, gems, drugs from this region to Central Asia, Russia and beyond is now rampant. Russian and Chinese arms find their way from the Far East to Cambodia and Laos then are smuggled into Thailand to reach Chittagong for supply to Indian insurgent groups in the North East and the left extremists or the highly weaponised political set-ups, especially the student organisations, in Bangladesh. In Sri Lanka, the LTTE runs a well-organised maritime arms import establishment. Pakistan, India and Bangladesh now have a domestic and illegal handicraft industry in the manufacture of small weapons. An entire covert system thrives and the cancer is spreading.

The main concern for the USA, however, is only about MANPADS – Man Portable Air Defence Systems like the Stringer or the Russian SA-7. Easy to conceal, carry and use, relatively inexpensive, MANPADS could easily be the terrorist’s favourite weapon particularly against commercial aircraft that are vulnerable at take-off and landing. Thousands of these shoulder-fired weapons are in circulation in the black market. There may be some that have been cannibalised or some others sent out by recipient countries for attempts at reverse engineering. While the USA and Russia have recently agreed to share information about what they supply to other countries, there is no agreement to curtail production or export.

Poverty and conflict feed on each other. Armed groups prevent access to hospitals and schools or markets and land, leading to further conflict. Perhaps the comment by the New York Times in its editorial of August 11, 2003 was the most telling –“The ease of obtaining AK-47s helps turn grievance into wars.”

James Wolfensohn, the World Bank President had pointed out the fundamental imbalance in the world, where US $ 900 billion is spent on defence, US $ 325 billion on agricultural subsidies, and only US $ 50 to 60 billion on aid. A correction of this imbalance would go a long way in finding the ultimate solution.

Quite often weapons once sold legally get transferred or resold or shipments get rerouted to clandestine buyers. An essential component of the war on terror would have to be tightening of export regulations, curtailing production, standardised serial marking of weapons, and stricter end-user certification. Instead what we have today is that in pursuit of its war on terror, the USA has begun to supply more arms to countries considered to be their allies in the war on terror but in many cases are also from where terrorist groups operate.

The UN is to hold a follow up Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in 2006. Unless the Conference seriously takes up the issues of production, distribution, serial marking, end-use guarantees and stock registers, it will not lead to any solution. The legal and the illegal trade must be tackled together. If drug abuse is sought to be tackled through reduction in supply why not for small arms too?

Source : Hindustan Times 21st Mar 2005