Everyone remembers 9/11. But in India’s neighbourhood, another momentous event had taken place which got lost in the debris of the Twin Towers and its aftermath. Just two days earlier, on September 9, 2001, Ahmed Shah Massoud, the Lion of Panjshir, and the last hold-out to total domination by the Taliban, was assassinated by two suicide terrorists. The Taliban did not have the reach or the expertise to plan this assassination. This was obviously Osama bin Laden repaying the Taliban for the hospitality in the run-up to establishing the first truly Islamic caliphate in the region from where other areas, including Osama’s Saudi homeland, would be targeted.
The Taliban and their Pakistani — as well as Saudi — backers were running out of patience in early 2001. Massoud was proving to be far more astute a military commander and far more obdurate than they thought he would be. He just would not give up and al-Qaeda had been given the contract to take him out. The assassination was planned for an earlier date — some say in August — to give the Taliban enough time to overrun the Northern Alliance.
The attacks on the US were carried out by a separate cell and succeeded beyond the expectations of the mastermind. They possibly expected a much milder reaction, something like the one in response to the attack on USS Cole. Apparently, there were two al-Qaeda operations being conducted independent of each other. One can’t say whether they were both fully controlled by bin Laden, but both September 9 and 11 had the ubiquitous Pakistani connection which continues to unravel even today.
In 1998, Massoud, desperate for his country, had written to the US president, “The country has gradually been occupied by fanatics, extremists, terrorists, mercenaries, drug mafias and professional murderers. One faction, the Taliban, which by no means rightly represents Islam, Afghanistan or our centuries-old cultural heritage, has with direct foreign assistance exacerbated this explosive situation…” Massoud gave details of the assistance that Pakistan was providing to the Taliban — men and material and even said that he held 500 Pakistani prisoners. “Three major concerns, namely terrorism, drugs and human rights, originate from Taliban-held areas but are instigated from Pakistan,” he said in this letter.
In an attempt to get his message across, while on a visit to Strasbourg in 2001, Massoud addressed the European Parliament and said: “If President Bush doesn’t help us, these terrorists will damage the US and Europe very soon.” Massoud knew what was coming and wanted to be heard. But no one would listen. He was trying to save his country from the twin threats of al-Qaeda and the Taliban but the Americans wanted his help only to find bin Laden. They were unwilling to commit large-scale assistance to Massoud for fear that this would upset the Pakistanis. Afghanistan was once again becoming a vague sort of place somewhere out there and too difficult and complicated to handle.
Afghanistan today produces 75 per cent of the world’s opium (3,600 tons in 2003). Afghans earn $ 2.5 billion from this trade which is equal to half of the country’s legitimate GNP. Ironically, most of the recent upsurge in poppy growth has been because of American indulgence with the warlords in exchange for intelligence about bin Laden. Most of it ends up in Europe taking the overland route through Central Asia, Caucasus including Chechnya. Ninety per cent of the heroin consumed today in Britain originates from Afghanistan. The bulk of heroin is grown, processed and transported through territories inhabited by Muslims. A majority of these regions have either unstable or non-democratic regimes.
Control of the heroin trade is linked with criminal mafias in the region or controlled by ethnic warlords in Afghanistan who generally act independently of the central authority. The same routes are used for other forms of smuggling including human trafficking and terrorist infiltration, and are quite often controlled by the same mafia. Most of these areas are also resource rich especially in oil and gas, a vital requirement for the rest of the world and also something that the rich and powerful want to control. These areas also provide for terrorist finance (Saudi Arabia) and terrorist troopers (Pakistan).
It’s this Afghanistan which will vote to elect its president on October 9. No one says Afghanistan is quite ready for it and Hamid Karzai, the incumbent and the frontrunner, knows this. The suspicions among the warring satraps are far too strong, the Afghan army has not yet become a force that commands respect, the armies at the command of the warlords are far stronger and they have refused to disarm.
There is a countrywide law and order problem with many of the NGOs like Medicins Sans Frontiers and several UN agencies chosing to leave Afghanistan. The Taliban, resurgent in the Pakhtun areas bordering Pakistan, as well as in the more remote areas of Zabul, Uruzgan and Helmand in the south, are doing their utmost to scuttle the elections and prevent the Pakhtuns from voting. An election with the majority of Pakhtuns unable to participate will be skewed. This will have repercussions on the parliamentary elections next year.
At best of times and throughout its history Afghanistan has been a difficult country to govern. It is more a collection of tribes rather than one single nation. These tribes have jealously guarded their independence and the Afghan topography, with its precipitous mountains, the barren deserts, absence of roads, poverty and harsh weather conditions have made people in different regions more or less self-reliant. Facing abject poverty, and continuous battles on their soil since 1979, the average Afghan has turned more and more to Islam as his last anchor only to be exploited by the Taliban. Other Afghans see their country as one which is hopelessly cursed by geography and surrounded by much stronger powers, on the crossroads of trade and energy routes, and would rather be left to themselves.
But that is unlikely to happen. As early as in 1947, the Afghans expressed their suspicions about Soviet Union, Britain and Pakistan. They sought access to the warm waters through the creation of Pakhtunistan, which would include the Pakhtuns living in the NWFP, Chitral, Swat and parts of the Balochistan province. The Afghans dreamt of the old Afghanistan of Ahmed Shah Durrani from the Oxus to the Indus. Afghanistan even voted against the entry of Pakistan into the UN in 1947. The Durand Line was repudiated in 1949. Pakistan’s suspicions aroused since then have not been assuaged and it has sought to control Afghanistan ever since.
September 11 happened; so did October 7. The US struck with ferocity and the sledgehammer strikes against the Taliban sent thousands of Taliban scurrying across the border into safe havens in Pakistan and elsewhere. But bin Laden and Mullah Omar proved elusive. Three years later, Pakistan was selling and the US was buying the idea of a ‘moderate Taliban’ — an anachronism. Whether the credit should go to Pakistan’s ability to market this lethal commodity or to American gullibility ahead of the November elections, is not really material. The point is that Pakistan is still allowed to be the spoiler in Afghanistan.
Pakistan finds it embarrassing that there should be another democratically elected neighbour when its own people remained under a khaki shroud. Islamabad would rather see an Islamist fundamentalist in power in Kabul that it can hope to guide if not fully control. If not, then the best option is to keep Afghanistan destabilised.
Source : Hindustan times 15th sep 2004
The Taliban and their Pakistani — as well as Saudi — backers were running out of patience in early 2001. Massoud was proving to be far more astute a military commander and far more obdurate than they thought he would be. He just would not give up and al-Qaeda had been given the contract to take him out. The assassination was planned for an earlier date — some say in August — to give the Taliban enough time to overrun the Northern Alliance.
The attacks on the US were carried out by a separate cell and succeeded beyond the expectations of the mastermind. They possibly expected a much milder reaction, something like the one in response to the attack on USS Cole. Apparently, there were two al-Qaeda operations being conducted independent of each other. One can’t say whether they were both fully controlled by bin Laden, but both September 9 and 11 had the ubiquitous Pakistani connection which continues to unravel even today.
In 1998, Massoud, desperate for his country, had written to the US president, “The country has gradually been occupied by fanatics, extremists, terrorists, mercenaries, drug mafias and professional murderers. One faction, the Taliban, which by no means rightly represents Islam, Afghanistan or our centuries-old cultural heritage, has with direct foreign assistance exacerbated this explosive situation…” Massoud gave details of the assistance that Pakistan was providing to the Taliban — men and material and even said that he held 500 Pakistani prisoners. “Three major concerns, namely terrorism, drugs and human rights, originate from Taliban-held areas but are instigated from Pakistan,” he said in this letter.
In an attempt to get his message across, while on a visit to Strasbourg in 2001, Massoud addressed the European Parliament and said: “If President Bush doesn’t help us, these terrorists will damage the US and Europe very soon.” Massoud knew what was coming and wanted to be heard. But no one would listen. He was trying to save his country from the twin threats of al-Qaeda and the Taliban but the Americans wanted his help only to find bin Laden. They were unwilling to commit large-scale assistance to Massoud for fear that this would upset the Pakistanis. Afghanistan was once again becoming a vague sort of place somewhere out there and too difficult and complicated to handle.
Afghanistan today produces 75 per cent of the world’s opium (3,600 tons in 2003). Afghans earn $ 2.5 billion from this trade which is equal to half of the country’s legitimate GNP. Ironically, most of the recent upsurge in poppy growth has been because of American indulgence with the warlords in exchange for intelligence about bin Laden. Most of it ends up in Europe taking the overland route through Central Asia, Caucasus including Chechnya. Ninety per cent of the heroin consumed today in Britain originates from Afghanistan. The bulk of heroin is grown, processed and transported through territories inhabited by Muslims. A majority of these regions have either unstable or non-democratic regimes.
Control of the heroin trade is linked with criminal mafias in the region or controlled by ethnic warlords in Afghanistan who generally act independently of the central authority. The same routes are used for other forms of smuggling including human trafficking and terrorist infiltration, and are quite often controlled by the same mafia. Most of these areas are also resource rich especially in oil and gas, a vital requirement for the rest of the world and also something that the rich and powerful want to control. These areas also provide for terrorist finance (Saudi Arabia) and terrorist troopers (Pakistan).
It’s this Afghanistan which will vote to elect its president on October 9. No one says Afghanistan is quite ready for it and Hamid Karzai, the incumbent and the frontrunner, knows this. The suspicions among the warring satraps are far too strong, the Afghan army has not yet become a force that commands respect, the armies at the command of the warlords are far stronger and they have refused to disarm.
There is a countrywide law and order problem with many of the NGOs like Medicins Sans Frontiers and several UN agencies chosing to leave Afghanistan. The Taliban, resurgent in the Pakhtun areas bordering Pakistan, as well as in the more remote areas of Zabul, Uruzgan and Helmand in the south, are doing their utmost to scuttle the elections and prevent the Pakhtuns from voting. An election with the majority of Pakhtuns unable to participate will be skewed. This will have repercussions on the parliamentary elections next year.
At best of times and throughout its history Afghanistan has been a difficult country to govern. It is more a collection of tribes rather than one single nation. These tribes have jealously guarded their independence and the Afghan topography, with its precipitous mountains, the barren deserts, absence of roads, poverty and harsh weather conditions have made people in different regions more or less self-reliant. Facing abject poverty, and continuous battles on their soil since 1979, the average Afghan has turned more and more to Islam as his last anchor only to be exploited by the Taliban. Other Afghans see their country as one which is hopelessly cursed by geography and surrounded by much stronger powers, on the crossroads of trade and energy routes, and would rather be left to themselves.
But that is unlikely to happen. As early as in 1947, the Afghans expressed their suspicions about Soviet Union, Britain and Pakistan. They sought access to the warm waters through the creation of Pakhtunistan, which would include the Pakhtuns living in the NWFP, Chitral, Swat and parts of the Balochistan province. The Afghans dreamt of the old Afghanistan of Ahmed Shah Durrani from the Oxus to the Indus. Afghanistan even voted against the entry of Pakistan into the UN in 1947. The Durand Line was repudiated in 1949. Pakistan’s suspicions aroused since then have not been assuaged and it has sought to control Afghanistan ever since.
September 11 happened; so did October 7. The US struck with ferocity and the sledgehammer strikes against the Taliban sent thousands of Taliban scurrying across the border into safe havens in Pakistan and elsewhere. But bin Laden and Mullah Omar proved elusive. Three years later, Pakistan was selling and the US was buying the idea of a ‘moderate Taliban’ — an anachronism. Whether the credit should go to Pakistan’s ability to market this lethal commodity or to American gullibility ahead of the November elections, is not really material. The point is that Pakistan is still allowed to be the spoiler in Afghanistan.
Pakistan finds it embarrassing that there should be another democratically elected neighbour when its own people remained under a khaki shroud. Islamabad would rather see an Islamist fundamentalist in power in Kabul that it can hope to guide if not fully control. If not, then the best option is to keep Afghanistan destabilised.
Source : Hindustan times 15th sep 2004
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