Uneasy lies the head

Shaukat Aziz, the prime minister-designate of Pakistan and a friend of the Musharraf family, was lucky on Friday, July 30, when he escaped a suicide bomb attack. He was lucky like Gen. Hayat, the Karachi Corps Commander, was in May. They were both lucky like Pervez Musharraf was, twice, in December. They have to be lucky all the time. The Balochistan chief minister also escaped a bid on his life in Quetta on August 2.
Repeated assassination attempts in a country that’s under martial law in all but name must be worrying for Musharraf. And the targets have been persons considered close to Musharraf. Aziz, a former Citi-banker with property and financial interests in the US, and with US nationality, is also seen as a man selected by the Americans. He, therefore, becomes a natural target for the assassins. It is even said that Aziz has a direct line to Washington so he will not be beholden to Musharraf.
Three prominent politicians — one each from the PPP, the PML(N) and the MQM — were assassinated in recent months. Here the message was to their leaders, Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif and Altaf Hussein, all in exile: to stay away from Pakistan and leave the vacuum to be filled by jehadis, politicians who owe their survival to army and by other generals.
It was a coincidence that the attack on Aziz took place one day after it was announced that in a joint operation conducted on July 26, by the FBI and Pakistani agencies, Ahmed Khaifal Ghailani, a Tanzanian wanted in the US for the 1998 Nairobi and Dar-es Salaam bombings, was arrested. Ghailani, who had a price of $ 5 million on his head, had been picked from the small town of Gujrat in the Punjab province, a few days after the visits of Armitage and Gen. John Abizaid. It was a coincidence, surely, that while one group of terrorists was targeting the PM-designate, another group had taken shelter in a town where the incumbent PM holds complete sway. It is commonly said in Punjab that no one can enter Gujrat without the knowledge or sometimes without the permission of the Choudhry brothers.
All this happened at a time when Jamaatud Dawa, the parent body of the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba, had split. The rabidly anti-American Hafiz Saeed had been shortchanged and all the goodies had gone to the deputy, Zafar Iqbal. It is safe to assume that all this has been artificially engineered, that Zafar Iqbal will now carry forward the Establishment’s agenda in J&K, while Hafiz Saeed has been sacrificed at the altar of expediency.
There has been a certain amount of unease in Islamabad in recent weeks. There was exasperation in Islamabad, following the visits of Armitage and Gen. Abizaid, who are believed to have asked for troops for Iraq and the capture of high value targets (HVT) like Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri, as soon as possible. Assuming that some of them are there somewhere in Pakistan and the Pak authorities are able to pick them up, Musharraf’s dilemma would be whether these be handed over now or kept for a deal later. After all the Iranians handed over the US hostages in 1980 on the day of the Reagan inauguration and had not handed them over to the outgoing Democratic President Jimmy Carter. The story at that time was that the Republicans had given some money to forestall the handover. With the elections in the US likely to go either way, Musharraf has to decide which way to play this one.
A large number of al-Qaeda terrorists have been arrested in raids all over Pakistan in recent days and there have been joint US-Afghan anti-Taliban operations close to the Pakistan border — perhaps even inside Pakistan. This could be a prelude to a major announcement about an HVT at a more suitable time.
The general is peeved that the Indians are not buying his argument that the Kashmir issue has to be solved in a given time-frame in accordance with the wishes of the people of J&K and that he was running out of patience (read: I will step up the violence in the Valley). The earlier bonhomie with New Delhi is evaporating. It could be a reassertion by the hardliners to revert to the old policies on J&K. Musharraf cannot afford to be seen as being too close to the US and also making concessions to India.
Musharraf is edgy that two of his generals will retire in October and fears that this would be a precedent enough for him to have to doff his khakee, as the politicians are insisting. He had promised to do so but he does not want to nor do his benefactors. Maybe that is why the hasty and clumsy move to replace Prime Minister Jamali and the chief minister in Sindh — to ensure instability and dependency. Musharraf is convinced the country needs him.
When Musharraf took over as the CEO of Pakistan Inc., in October 1999, the company was largely bankrupt. The coffers were empty and the shareholders were constantly quibbling. The takeover was enthusiastically greeted by a population tired of the political gridlock and hoped that they would not be taken for a ride this time. At the time of the coup, Musharraf and the army were popular but the Americans did not like the dictator. Five years down the line, it’s the other way round — the Americans now love their dictator, but the people are disillusioned and there is growing criticism of the US.
There are reports of suicide bombers stalking Karachi. One of the suspects arrested in the Hayat assassination bid is an officer from the ISI. In the earlier assassination attempt on Musharraf, some members of the armed forces were involved. Musharraf has received threats on the internet that are being taken seriously.
The south Waziristan problem, simmering for several months now, is proving to be particularly obstinate and just will not go away. Two major Pakistan army operations in the area have failed; there is night curfew in south Waziristan. Islamabad-imposed economic sanctions continue, so do attacks on Pak military positions, and have spread to north Waziristan.
The army, unable to even ensure law and order in the country, especially in Balochistan and Karachi, has begun to lose its sheen. Sectarian violence has continued in a more vicious form. There is open criticism of the army’s ever-expanding role in the affairs of Pakistan with no problem being solved. The farmers of Okara in Punjab have been protesting against army high-handedness and attempts at land grab. The much-touted National Accountability Bureau, formed to ensure public probity, is a weapon to harass political detractors and opponents. More and more questions are being asked about the Kargil fiasco and even Musharraf’s role is being questioned. People also want to know what price Musharraf may have had to pay to buy US indulgence on the A.Q. Khan issue of clandestine nuclear sales.
Musharraf is also being criticised for being under the influence of his mother, for corruption by default and there is the story that an expensive executive jet has been purchased and its main feature is that it can fly to the US non-stop. At first, the criticism was muted, in hushed whispers. Of late, however, it has become louder. When that happens in Pakistan and when the CEO is the target, then it is time to sit up and take notice.

Source : Hindustan Times 13th Aug 2004